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I still think Romney has a great chance to win the presidency. What the public thinks now is immaterial before the Romney dollars start really flowing. We already saw this happen with the public's views on healthcare reform two years ago.
That's the bottom line probability Nate Silver has of an Obama victory in November..
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ention-bounce/It’s certainly important to be cautious when interpreting one-day changes in the polls. But so far, this data is tracking toward a decent-size convention bounce for Mr. Obama. It’s quite unlikely, in fact, that the movement in the polls reflects statistical noise alone.
I looked for previous instances in our database in which both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls each moved toward Mr. Obama by at least two points on the same day, and found only six other occasions on which they did so, out of about 140 days on which they were both published simultaneously. The Ipsos poll has started to be published only recently, but the fact that it moved toward Mr. Obama also further strengthens the case.
Instead, that Mr. Obama has gained two or three points in polls conducted essentially halfway through his convention suggests that his gains could eventually be larger, perhaps on the order of five points, once the surveys fully reflect post-convention data. Typically, the bounce grows over the course of the convention, peaking in interviews conducted just a day or two after it.
The caveat is that — and yes, this reflects my personal, subjective view — I thought the speeches delivered by Mrs. Obama and Mr. Clinton were stronger than the one given by Mr. Obama himself, and that Democrats’ momentum seemed to peak on Wednesday night rather than on Thursday. Then, Mr. Obama got a mediocre jobs report on Friday.
-snip-
But there is the risk of getting too lost in the technical details, when the calculus is actually fairly simple. Mr. Romney entered the conventions in a narrow deficit to Mr. Obama. The fact that he only pulled into a rough tie in the polls after the Republican convention was a bearish sign for him. If Mr. Obama emerges from the conventions in a stronger position than he entered them with, Mr. Romney’s position will have become a bit difficult.
-snip-
Can we quit this bogus talk about this race even being close anymore and start talking about Obama coattails and Dems holding the Senate?
I still think Romney has a great chance to win the presidency. What the public thinks now is immaterial before the Romney dollars start really flowing. We already saw this happen with the public's views on healthcare reform two years ago.
Nope. God bless
It's only 4 more years. How much more damage can possibly be done?
Bouncity - Bounce
Imagine that there are just two states. State 1 has EV1 electoral votes and your candidate has a probability P1 of winning that state; in state 2, EV2 electoral votes and a probability P2. Assume that EV1 and EV2 are not equal. Then the possible outcomes have the following probabilities:
EV1+EV2 electoral votes (i.e. winning both): P1 * P2. EV1 electoral votes: P1 * (1-P2). EV2 electoral votes: (1-P1) * P2. No electoral votes: (1-P1) * (1 – P2).
In general, the probability distribution for all possible outcomes is given by the coefficients of the polynomial
((1 – P1) + P1 * x^EV1) * ((1 – P2) + P2 * x^EV2) * … * ((1 – P51) + P51 * x^EV51)
where 1…51 represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This polynomial can be calculated in a fraction of a second.
http://election.princeton.edu/histor...tes-for-obama/
9/11 twoofer has math
And being a loyal twoofer, why aren't you a Ron Paulbot?
Hopefully, free birth control for Georgetown co-eds is a top priority.
The probabilities P1, P2, ... , P51 aren't independent and vary with time, and could tend to skew one way as the election drags on.
Wait till a couple of weeks from now to get a better gauge on things.
Maybe because Ron Paul isn't a truther.....
Wait a few thousands years and we might get a better gauge on global warming, err i mean climate control. Might, no guarantee. God bless
list the damage that has been done, don't be coy, Roy. don't bluff with your stuff
It's only 4 more years. How much more damage can possibly be done?
1. damage by HUSSEIN in 4 years without control of Congress
and
2. damage by 2001-2008 Repugs, and by Repug/conservative polices since 1975.
the meta-margin has never been skewed to this point and its looking even better today...on to the debates!
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