NFL Handicapping, Week 13

[Ghazi]

Here are some early lines I like

New Orleans @ Atlanta -3.5

I'll probably buy the hook... I love the idea of fading the worst defense in the NFL on the road in a revenge spot. We have Matt Ryan and his dynamic group of receivers against a team that isn't great at getting pressure to the QB, and is 29th in opponent passer rating. Atlanta checks out as a below average defense this year, but it's primarily against the run. As far as pressure and pass defense, they're passable. Although my research indicates Atlanta is nowhere near as good as their 10-1 record, I like them here given New Orleans' atrocious defense.

Minnesota +9 @ Green Bay
I always love taking the dog in large spreads, but there are concerns. We have the best QB in the NFL v a shaky secondary... but on the flipside, we have a decent defensive line w/ Jared Allen v a banged up offensive line that looked horrible against the Giants. We also have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL led by the best RB in the NFL. Also consider GB has a weak running game. Matthews and Woodson being out, along with other Packers injuries, make me like the Vikes here despite a severe mismatch at QB.

Tampa Bay @ Denver -7
Major mismatch alert... Denver has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL while Tampa Bay is pretty bad at getting pressure to the QB... doesn't bode well against Manning. Led by Dumervil/Miller Denver has quietly had a great season defensively,highlighted by pressuring the QB and a strong rushing defense. Denver is top 5 both offensively and defensively as far as yards per play. Home field advantage, strong defense, superior QB... I might have to swallow 7 points and take the Broncos here... might buy the hook and make it 6.5

[Avante]

Let's break it down....

Power points...points given for road/home wins and losses.

Atlanta 30
New Orleans 19

Green Bay 24
Minnesota 18

Denver 27
Tampa Bay 17

Atlanta at home...6
New Orleans on the road...2

Green Bay...4
Minnesota...1

Denver...4
Tampa Bay...2

Last 4 game wins

Atlanta..3
Saints...3

Green Bay...3
Minnesota...1

Denver...4
Tampa Bay..3

So if we add all that up.

Atlanta 39
Denver 35
Green Bay 31
New Orleans 24
Tampa Bay 22
Minnesota 20

Now add points scored/given up. 320scored 200 given up= +12

Atlanta + 8
New Orleans even

Green Bay + 3
Minnesota even

Denver +9
Tampa Bay + 6

Atlanta was one play away from beating NO at their place. As we can see by the numbers it's all Falcons in this"spot".

Green Bay doesn't lose two in a row, Minnesota does. Green Bay is 4-1 in this "spot" the last 5 vs Vikes. Then there's this little gem. As a division road dog coming off a loss the Vikes are 1-11 vs the spread. Everything screams....PACKERS! Packers one of the best home teams in the league, the Vikes are weak on the road.

Can't go with any historical trends with Denver vs Tampa Bay, yep the Manning factor. We do know that Tampa Bay hasn't beat a power team on the road in a long long time. There has got to be a better play out there than this one.

Do you pay attention to whatever role these teams are playing from week to week?


home fav
home dog
road fav
road dog

No worst road favorite than Seattle. All these teams have a role they are best at. So looking for a strong home dog vs a poor road favorite....strong play. We also have how they do Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec in whatever role they are in.

[Avante]

There is one game on the board that sticks out like a sore thumb, you see it?

[Ghazi]

nah, which?

[Ghazi]

Where the are the degens on this site?

Locked in:

Detroit -6 - Major reverse line movement in favor of Lions. Teams with 3 game homestand are usually over 70% ATS after losing the first 2 in the stand. Colts horrible on road/atrocious defense versus Stafford/Johnson connection

Steelers +7.5 - Ravens despite their record are fairly mediocre in every category, kind of remind me of the Falcons. Terrible run defense. I believe Polamalu is back. I'm taking the generous serving of points even with Batch being awful

Bengals -1- Elite pass rush v terrible Oline. Fading Norv/Rivers is never a bad thing. Only issue is EC team traveling WEst.

Broncos -7- Peyton versus a nonexistent pass rush and a team that's had trouble v QBs all year. AL UDE>.. Bucs are 8-2-1 against the spread but Bucs DL v Broncos OL was one of the bigger mismatches off the week I noticed in my studies. Miller/Dumervil are nasty. Broncos defense is good.

Teaser: SF -1/NE -1... simply think these two teams will win. Best D in league on one side, best O in league on other side. Not comfortable taking large -7 spreads on road but comfortable taking them both -1.

Leaned Minny +7.5 but I think what killed it for me was Harvin out, Greg Jennings returning. Packers are still really banged up with a terrible OL but I don't trust the Vikes' offense w/o Harvin and with Ponder at the helm.

Seattle +3 was crossing my mind

[Blake]

There is one game on the board that sticks out like a sore thumb, you see it?