NFL ATS Picks, Week 16

[Ghazi]

Went 4-3 last week... Jets were pretty painful to watch.

early leans, explanations to come..

Lions +4 v Falcons

Broncos -13 v Browns

Panthers -8 v Raiders

Niners -1 v Seahawks

Jaguars +14.5 v Patriots

[tlongII]

Yes, please explain that Niners pick!

[BUMP]

Sup Ghaz

[Ghazi]

Texans -7.5 v Vikings - In road games ever since Harvin has went down, the VIkings have gained 426 yards on 122 pass attempts... this is a ridiculous 3.5 yards per pass attempt which is just flat out horrendous. The Texans are playing for a first round bye, and although they're not in the tier of Denver/SF/NE, they're definitely 2 notches above this Vikings team. I simply don't know how I can't not fade a one dimensional team with one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL. the passing game is so important now, and while Peterson is the one game changing running back in the NFL, I'm not sure he has much support. Their defense is middling and their offense is horrible. I expect a comfortable win for the Texans

Panthers -8 v Raiders - the Panthers offer value because they're a team much better than their record. On the year they average over 7 yards per pass attempt and allow less than 6. Only two other teams can say that... SF and Denver. A tough schedule and a bunch of close losses caused this team to go 5-9, but they're actually one of the more solid teams in the NFL and Newton has been playing excellent lately. This Raiders offense is average on its best day and its defense offers little resistance. I hate laying 2 scores but yet again, I think the Panthers blow em out.

Lions +3.5 v Falcons - The Lions just keep finding ways to lose, but maybe they're not as bad a team as their reccord. a last second loss to the Colts, a crushing backdoor loss to the Packers, a missed FG in OT and a slew of other errors v the Texans (and a bad call, even)... the bizarre fumble v the Packers again. Against the Cards their defense does a good job (who doesn't against the Cards?) holding them to under 200 yards, and yet Stafford throws 2 pick 6s. It's an old debate, is this team unlucky? Or are they to blame for their misfortune. the Falcons proved that while they might not be one of the 3 best teams in the NFL, they can't be considered overrated. Their net yards per pass attempt differential now ranks 6th in the league (good indicator of future success)... still I have some questions about their pass defense, and when this Lions offense is rolling, it's really good... still love their defensive line too. I think there's value grabbing 3.5 points here w/ the Lions

Niners -1 v Seahawks - I dunno about this one at all... this game screams coin flip. These teams are quite similar, with very efficient run oriented offenses (but with potent passing), young QBs, and stout defenses. Even look at their seasson stats... SF +139 points, Seahawks +131 points... it's kinda weird how similar these teams are... Seahawks are the most run oriented team in the league. Seahawks have definitely been the best team at home this year. Honestly, I have no assessment of this game, I feel like I'm flipping a coin.