Reply With Quote
I think Dez might be out for that game too. Agree with all except Indy pick. Colts have no tangible thing to play for in that game while Houston badly needs HFA throughout.
only went 1-1 last week... wish I pulled the trigger on Jags +14.5 and Broncos -13... they were leans.. but I was probably gonna pick the Niners.
5 attractive lines:
Colts +4.5 - I still don't think the Colts are very good at all, but I still like immediate revenge spots and quite frankly I KINDA buy into the Chuckstrong magic. He will be back for this game I think. The building will be electric. the Texans defense has been on a steep decline and losing to Ponder's Vikes at home in a very important game was just flat out embarrassing. The betting markets have typically not respected the Colts this year because they're statistically unimpressive, but I think this is a generous amount of points. Home dogs are always nice.
Panthers +4.5 - I think, I KNOW the Panthers are a better team than the Saints. Again, one of the better offenses and defenses in the league that nobody talks about because of how poorly they started the season and how unlucky they were in close games. Solid pass rush... Saints looked strong last 2 weeks, but it was also against pretty lousy pass defenses. Panthers are better. I like the chances of the Panthers winning this game outright, or at least keeping it within the margin. I feel like the Saints have some inflated value here. As great as Brees and that offense is, their defense is still terrible.
Niners -14 - Probably not gonna lay double digits, but can someone tell me how the Cardinals are gonna score in this game? I feel like if the Niners score just 24 points they'll cover the spread here. Literally the best defense in the NFL v the worst offense. Cards will need some turnovers or defensive TDs to generate a fair share of points here. Their defense is respectable but I honestly think there's a good chance this offense gets held to 7 points or less. Hoyer may be starting for Cards though, so that's a wild card, but doesn't make up for their dog offensive line. Niners plagued by injuries lately, Justin Smith being lost is huge... but the Cards are still a horrible football team.
Broncos -15 - Yea... again double digits. But as I've said for weeks, the Broncos are the best team in football and the Chiefs are probably the worst at this point. Crennel defenses seem to have done a decent job on manning... in fact the Broncos won the previous meeting only 17-9... but the Broncos are probably gonna go all out for this game while the Chiefs are waiting for the season to end. I wish I pulled the trigger on the Broncos last week... 3-0 betting this team. I seriously feel like the Chiefs would need luck to keep this within 17 points. But again, laying double digits no matter how big the gap between the teams is usually risky. Will pursue further research.
Redskins -3- Might be -3.5 ... I think the Redskins would be appropriate to be 3 point favorites on a neutral field v the Cowboys,s o being a 3 point favorite at home seems like a good deal to me. Their offense is incredible, 2nd best in the NFL behind the Patriots and the Cowboys defense is subpar. Romo's been playing great lately, and he should find some spots against this shaky pass defense...but I just love the dynamics of this spot for the Redskins. Night game, huge game, home game, I think RG III will find running spots v the Cowboys too. REcall Griffin ABSOLUTELY shredded the Cowboys on Thanksgiving...although Romo had a decent game. This migt be a gut feeling without much evidence, I just seriously think the Redskins end the Cowboys season in convincing fashion.
I think Dez might be out for that game too. Agree with all except Indy pick. Colts have no tangible thing to play for in that game while Houston badly needs HFA throughout.
hmm, overlooked that.
a few other lines I like are seattle -10 and new england -10... I dunno why, cause I usually hate laying double digits...only done it once this years with Broncos -10 @ Oakland.. but I seem to like the favorites this week.
an interesting line to me is Vikings-Packers... Packers are 3.5 point favorites.
I'm curious why the line is so low here... a few weeks ago I would've understood... but the Vikes pass offense which was already terrible has taken on a new form of suck w/o Harvin... and while the Packers run defense definitely looked vulnerable for a few weeks there, Clay Matthews coming back improves it greatly. Vikings did play them tough in Green Bay though, and if not for some red zone blunders by Ponder could've easily won the game... interestingly enough I was leaning Vikings +8 that week but backed off JUST because of Ponder... as it turns out they failed to cover JUST because of Ponder.
the "logical" play here seems to be the Packers.. I think they're a far superior team. Vikings to me are the Colts of the NFC...as great as Peterson is. I'll have to study some more angles after Christmas.
A few more notes...
I just honestly feel like certain franchises simply have a LOSING culture instilled in them. It's hard to back up with evidence, data, stats, etc... but it's just a sense based on results and how the results occur.
and I feel like the Cowboys are one of them in the Romo era. the botched kick v Seattle in '06, getting blown out as a #1 seed in the playoffs, losing 44-6 to Eagles in last regular season game to miss the playoffs with the "dream team"... finally getting a playoff win only to lose 34-3 to the Vikings... and last year in the exact same spot they're in this year, losing 31-14 to the Giants.
Teams like the Lions, Cowboys, and Chargers... just seem to have a losing culture as of late. Lions have been a statistically solid team this year, but they've found re ed ways to lose games and are 4-11.
As for Vikes/Packers... Packers pass rush is coming along... their offensive line is terrible, but it seems like Rodgers can transcend that O-Line.. Vikings pass rush and secondary aren't spectacular anyway.. Packers run defense has been shaky, but again Matthews is back.
My wiseguy instincts seem to like the Vikes, because Packers -3.5 almost feels too obvious.
Panthers haven't beaten anyone lately. They beat some lousy teams except for the Falcons.
Last edited by Pelicans78; 12-25-2012 at 08:56 AM.
Dez won't be missing this game...Garrett is even saying Ware will probably play, somehow. This game is too big. They'll protect Dez's finger.
Niners up to -16.5 ... no thanks
Panthers up to +5
spread on Colts went from +4.5 to +7
Eagles +7.5
3-2 for me. Vikes +3.5 Panthers +5 Redskins -3 wins... Eagles +7 Bears -3 (-_-) loss
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
