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Cool read. Thanks
This article from NBA.com is pretty interesting. http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2013/0...-impact-plays/
Whether or not the numbers are perfect, it does a pretty good job of illustrating how a dumb play at certain points in the game can be a lot more costly than at other times. The best example is Danny Green's 3-shot foul on Ray Allen.
But it also confirms something that I (and some others) have said for a long time - not all bad calls are created equal. Just because the foul and free throw count are approximately equal, it doesn't mean they had the same impact. (And this still doesn't address the idea of momentum, in that regard.) I was pleased to find out that they are using this to help evaluate and teach the refs. "The NBA has a way to use analytics to figure out just which plays had the biggest impact on a close game. It’s a “leverage” model that was developed to evaluate and instruct referees by pointing out which calls or no-calls had the biggest impact on a game’s result." The flip side of that is it makes me wonder if it's teaching the refs to swallow their whistles, since calls at the ends of games are much more likely to have a bigger impact on the outcomes.
Anyway... the article isn't about the refs. But it is a pretty interesting look at the last few possessions of this game. I can't disagree that the steal by Leonard was huge.
"With the Spurs up 79-78 and the Heat in possession with just over six minutes to go, the Spurs’ win probability is 49.6 percent. But just gaining possession on Leonard’s steal changes it to 58.3 percent. And after Tony Parker puts Norris Cole in the blender and converts the layup, it’s at 65.4 percent. So the whole sequence is an increase of 15.8 percent." That was just an outstanding defensive play by Kawhi, at a very critical point in the game.
Cool read. Thanks
or manu's 3
thanks for posting, was a really interesting read. i'd love to get a look at the numbers/logic behind their model!
Sounds shady as tbh. Refs shouldn't be concerned with how big a call is or not. Just make the right call. Sounds like the NBA wants rubberband officiating, like rubberband AI in NBA2K.
I think the league (Stern) doesn't want the refs determining the outcome of games. And in general, I think that's a good idea. But I also don't think the players should be able to determine the outcome by fouling indiscriminately, either. I can't count the times I've seen a shooter get totally hammered on the last play of a game, only to hear the announcers say, "That was a good no-call. You don't want to have the officials determine the outcome." Really? So if your team has a 1-point lead, you're bulletproof?
I just think the best way to keep from changing the outcome of a game is to call fouls the same way, no matter what point in the game they happen, or what point in the season. Not by deciding that this play, or this game is too important to call that particular foul. I just hate hearing, "You're not going to get that call in the last second of the game", or "You're not going to get that call in the playoffs". If a call is there to be made, blow the damned whistle. I don't care if it costs the Spurs a game. I know a lot of people can't believe that, but it's the truth. I don't like having these unofficial league policies that certain fouls at certain times are off limits. That's not a conspiracy, it's just a bad idea.
Agreed. Which is why that blurb in the article sounds shady, implying that the NBA wants refs to make calls based on the impact each call could have on the game. lolwut? Just make the right call and let the impact be what it will be.
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