I agree that momentum and history favor the Spurs, but this will be closer than any game so far this series.
The Heat would have to be completely insane not to have one man glued on Danny Green 100% of the time. I see them doing that (or attempting to do it) in game 6.
Hopefully a few other shooters step up in his place when the Heat swarm DG.
Duncan has also been highly effective in the low post the last few games. I can see him going off if he is adequately fed down low.

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