Random thoughts and stats after 10 games

[Bruno]

9-1 is great. While it's true Spurs have faced low level opponents, 9-1 with 6 games on the road and with these 10 games played in only 17 days, can only be seen as a very good start of the season. Some thoughts on some more specific aspects:

Duncan and Ginobili:
That's the true bad news of these first 10 games. With a respective PER of 15.4 and 14.9, both Tim and Manu have looked bad this year and given their ages that's worrisome.
For Tim, the drop off is made even more noticeable by how great he was last season. When you compare at last season, his points scored by minutes have dropped by 28.2% with a FG% going from .502 to .394. It's isn't only a shooting slump since his rebounding per minute has also dropped by 23.5%.
For Manu, the drop is smaller since he wasn't that good last season but it doesn't change that he is right now only an average player. The idea that this season could be some kind of rebound year for him is way off for the moment.
I have a hard time being optimistic for their future. Maybe, the best reason to be hopeful that they will get significantly better would surprisingly come from a De Colo interview. In that interview, Nando said Spurs have changed their physical training staff/method with the idea of being even more in shape for the playoffs. The hope would be that they get better physically for the playoffs which would have a big positive impact on their playing level.

Spurs overall defense:
While Spurs defense hasn't really faced a lot of offensive juggernauts, it has been great especially given that they usually start the season slow on that end of the court. Right now with only 91.6 points allowed by 100 possession, Spurs are the second best defensive team in the league behind Indiana. This good defense is done the typical Spurs way by focusing on the easy shots: Spurs are defending the rim well, are great at stopping fast breaks and are allowing very few free throws. The only area that Spurs should improve is defending corner 3's. Spurs are 21st in corner 3's allowed by game and 25th in FG% allowed for these shots with a ridiculous 47.3%.

Spurs overall offense:
Spurs are average offensively. They have the 11th offensive rating at 102.7. Identifying the key issue isn't that complicate: Spurs are bad offensively when Duncan is on the court. They have a 99.9 offensive rating when he is on the court and a 105.1 rating when he is on the bench. In 2012-2013, it was 107.6 with him and 104.2 without him.
To improve their offense, Duncan must improve or Spurs must use him less offensively. With his pedigree, it isn't debatable for the moment and Spurs must stick with Tim as a key part of their offense but if his struggles continue in a couple of months, it might become a legit option to feed him less.

Spurs defensive rebounding:
Spurs have been these past years an elite defensive rebounding team and they are having an even better start than usual this year.
The improvement doesn't really come from the PF/C rotation but from the SG/SF rotation. The 4 main wing (Leonard, Green, Ginobili and Belinelli) are averaging more than 5 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes.
Spurs compensate the lack of an elite defensive rebounder by a team effort.

The Duncan/Splitter pair:
One of the reason of Spurs surge last season was the Splitter/Duncan pairing. They even were the best defensive pair in the NBA. This year it isn't at all the case:
+/- stats for the main Spurs bigmen pair:
Duncan/Splitter: -13 in 98 minutes
Duncan/Diaw: +48 in 94 minutes
Splitter/Diaw: +35 in 70 minutes
Duncan getting better might put back the Duncan/Splitter back on track but if it doesn't happen, it should have consequences on what Spurs should do at the trade deadline. Without the ability to pair Tim and Tiago adding a quality PF becomes an even bigger priority.

Patty Ginobili:
Last season, there were a stat that was in favor of Mills getting the backup PG spot: his insanely good pairing with Ginobili. They were at +22.7 points per 100 possessions and by far Spurs better pair.
This season proves so far that it wasn't just a statistical fluke. They are right now at +27 points per 100 poss. .
Add to that, Mills great offensive input and some good defensive numbers and it looks like Spurs have found a high quality backup PG for this season.

Boris 2.0:
A lot has been said about Diaw increase aggressiveness. A little stat to back it up:
Field goals attempted by Boris per 36 minutes with Spurs:
2012: 6.0
2012-2013: 7.0
2013-2014: 12.7
Regarding the reason of that change, I don't buy the contract year effect even said by Pop. I believe Diaw when he said that it is because he thoughts he could have bring more to Spurs last season in the playoffs and that it is what he wants to do this year with them.

Belinelli versus Neal:
Neal (and Blair, but that's another subject), being an empty stats player that didn't make the team better was reflected in his on/off court stats. During his career with Spurs to offense wasn't really better while he was on the court while the defense was significantly worse.
Belinelli seems to be a way superior team player. That's what the naked eye said and stats confirmed it. His +/- is right now at +10.1 points per 100 possession while Neal was at +4.2 points with Spurs.

Aron Baynes:
It's a little anecdotal but while I was looking at Spurs stats to do that post, I was amazed by how horrible Baynes stats were. He has a -5.6 PER and a -38 +/-. It isn't a surprise why Ayres is above him in the rotation even if he has shown close to nothing on the court.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Thanks, Bruno. Great post.

I suspect that Duncan is coasting and priming for a later season run. Historically bad stats for him and such a drop-off suddenly (despite the age caveat) is more likely a function of a changed emphasis on physical regimen and coasting rather than anything else, I think.

Ginobili's 15 PER, I always expected. What worries me is his continued struggles on 3 point shooting. Thats where he really regressed last year (the TOs against Miami were all due to Miami's superior defense). And I think his history of being a reliable 3 point shooter is just that now, history.

The Spurs bench and role players are who are responsible for the Spurs' spectacular start. I suspect even Parker, who has performed at such a high level is coasting.

Duncan peaking by February-March would be ideal. And Ginobili needs to get his shot rhythm by then as well.

And yes, Bonner, Baynes and De Colo seem redundant. Better trade a combination of some of them for a need - a small ball PF as the situation presents itself soon. I am holding hope for a Shawn Marion type through a waiver deal as well.

[ElNono]

Thanks for the writeup Bruno

[Prime Time]

Interesting comment by Nando there. The vets did look gassed in the finals, had not it been for Green's shooting display/Kawhi's activity the series would have been over rather quickly. If they've developed a new training system that makes the veterans more energized by May, that can only do good.

And Spurs are still 9-1. That 2011 Spurs club also 9-1 to start their season, And That was during their peak.

It's safe to say Spurs are far from their peak right now.

[313]

gjdm

No comment on Blair replacement?

[Mugen]

Good writeup, thanks B. I've had more issue with Duncan's shot than anything tbh. He looks the same defensively and his mobility looks fine to me. Maybe not 2013 Duncan but still a very good bigman in today's NBA tbh. But the shot looks really flat. Good news is that's correctable and we don't need 2013 Duncan to be a legit contender again this season IMO.

Ginobili is what he is at this point. Not really worried. A decline for Gino/Timmy is not unexpected and its impact can be mitigated by featuring Kawhi more, which Pop seems to want to do.

Very good start to the season all things considered and I think there's a lot of room for improvement still.

[Robz4000]

Solid write-up. I'm with Spursfanfromafar, I think TD is coasting as well. He looks great physically and when needed he still plays elite defense. I think Manu is doing pretty good all things considered (his three-point shot has been getting a bit better the last few games). However, what really makes me hopeful for Manu is his explosiveness; he's been driving to the hoop at a good level, and he isn't needlessly sacrificing his body as he usually has. If Manu can stay healthy all season (big if) the Spurs will be deadly come the postseason seeing as he'll have his rhythm. Parker is definitely coasting imo. When he's been needed this season he's turned it on and become near unstoppable.

This might be the best bench the Spurs have had outside possibly 2007. That Dude is such a great fit and he's just starting to gel with the team. However, the biggest factor to that is Diaw 2.0; if he keeps this up I see no reason he can't contend for 6MoY or MIP. Then again, I would also be okay with moving him back to the starting lineup so the Spurs can have solid rim protection 48 minutes a game. Could also jumpstart the offense to the elite level it was at last year. Lastly, as much as I like Bonner and Bayne, if they can procure the Spurs an Ariza or Marion, that'd be amazing.

[TXstbobcat]

Thank you Bruno.

[DJR210]

Duncan and Ginobili:
That's the true bad news of these first 10 games. With a respective PER of 15.4 and 14.9, both Tim and Manu have looked bad this year and given their ages that's worrisome.

Did you expect anything else from Manu?

[EVAY]

Wow. What a terrific write-up. Thank you very much. It is always so helpful to have what we think we are seeing verified with actual stats.

I have wondered if Manu could be helped by working with Chip Engelland. I mean I know that Manu is way accomplished and everything, but I honestly think that his three point shot is broken. I am less sure about Tim, but he looks more like three years ago than last year, and that is not a good thing.

Thanks again for the great work. Great reading!!

[Bruno]

Did you expect anything else from Manu?

I expect him to play a bigger role. Aside of a poor 3 point shooting, Manu hasn't been that bad this season but it's jsut that the game is less and less centered around him. He should be able to be more than a supporting character.

[Stabula]

Tim doesn't seem like the type of player to coast through a season. His renaissance last year was noticeable from day one and lasted the entirety of the season so I'm concerned with his performance so far.

[Lincoln]

He's probably still concerned about The Missed layup, gettin cucked and exposed as a sexual this summer.


He will bounce back tho and have a solid year. He is the GOAT PF after all despite the inability to make a 2 foot layup with the championship on the line

[Bruno]

gjdm

No comment on Blair replacement?

While Blair had a lot of qualities, he also had a lot of drawbacks that hurted Spurs. At the end , I think he was more a negative presence than a positive one.
Ayres is doing his best impersonation of the invisible man.
I guess you could call Ayres an "upgrade" since nothing is better than something negative.

Saying that, I still have no clue why Spurs went so early in the summer after Ayres for more than the min salary.

[ace3g]

9-1 is great. While it's true Spurs have faced low level opponents, 9-1 with 6 games on the road and with these 10 games played in only 17 days, can only be seen as a very good start of the season. Some thoughts on some more specific aspects:


Belinelli versus Neal:
Neal (and Blair, but that's another subject), being an empty stats player that didn't make the team better was reflected in his on/off court stats. During his career with Spurs to offense wasn't really better while he was on the court while the defense was significantly worse.
Belinelli seems to be a way superior team player. That's what the naked eye said and stats confirmed it. His +/- is right now at +10.1 points per 100 possession while Neal was at +4.2 points with Spurs.

This can't be true, Belinelli is terrible...

[benefactor]

This can't be true, Belinelli is terrible...

Raven...for some reason she just won't back off of it. If you call her out on it she just moves the goalposts a bazillion times.

[Hemotivo]

He's probably still concerned about The Missed layup, gettin cucked and exposed as a sexual this summer.


He will bounce back tho and have a solid year. He is the GOAT PF after all despite the inability to make a 2 foot layup with the championship on the line

[PlayNando]

Good stuff, Bruno, per par.

[Raven]

Raven...for some reason she just won't back off of it. If you call her out on it she just moves the goalposts a bazillion times.

perhaps it's for the same reasons that i thought nando and baynes were bad signings, despite some early success and hype. I've seen him play a lot more times than you did, simple as that. Also, among our players that played more than garbage time, he has the worst defensive rating, not to mention the act that he played a lot with Diaw and his magic, inflating his stats.

[benefactor]

...I've had league pass since before he came in the NBA, you dumb . Sorry, your latest goalpost move is full of fail just like your other ones.

Find a different shtick...anyone with a pair of eyes can see through your Beli hate one.

[Raven]

...I've had league pass since before he came in the NBA, you dumb . Sorry, your latest goalpost move is full of fail just like your other ones.

Find a different shtick...anyone with a pair of eyes can see through your Beli hate one.

very related

no need to hate on me tbh, just wait.

[freetiago]

The big reason the offense suffers is because Tony Parker doesn't decide to show up til the 4th quarter
Spurs lack of playmakers/ball handlers get exposed big time especially when you see someone like Leonard/Green having to handle the ball because of those no PG type lineups
Parker needs to become a 25 ppg scorer consistently for the Spurs to reach their full offensive potential like he was playing in January/February last season


Tim is just missing mid range shots right now
its not really his overall offense
hes primarily a pick and pop player now so his FG% will be lower then his career numbers and hes on a cold shooting streak
I don't think his shot abandoned him yet so well see in the coming games if it gets better

[benefactor]

very related

no need to hate on me tbh, just wait.

I've seen him play a lot more times than you did, simple as that.

[exstatic]

Tim doesn't seem like the type of player to coast through a season. His renaissance last year was noticeable from day one and lasted the entirety of the season so I'm concerned with his performance so far.

You must not have watched about the 5 seasons before the last one. Robert Horry was a horrible influence on TIm.

[Raven]

are you seriously trying to sell me that since you have nba pass, you've been watching belinelli on any regular season game that was not against the spurs? Even if you did, you still wouldn't have seen the player as much as i did, i've seen this guy play even in friendly matches with his national team, seriously, don't even try, you just look pathetic. Also, how do you explain every team up until now has given up on him? Let me just ask you this, do you think he is a better player than Dumbleavy?