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when i saw random thoughts i thought it was timvp...
After a 9-1 start, Spurs have gone 7-3 in the next 10 games to be 16-4 after 20 games. It's still very good since it's the pace to end the season with 66 wins.
A fool's gold record?
Spurs are 16-0 against teams with a record below .650.
Spurs are 0-4 against teams with a record above .650.
So, while 16-4 is a damn good start, there isn't a single high quality win in the first 20 games played by Spurs this season. In 3 of the 4 losses, Spurs defense just folded allowing more than 110 points.
It's no that worrisome because Spurs are a vet team but it would certainly be nice to have some kind of statement win.
Spurs overall offense and defense:
On the year Spurs have the 4th best offense with a rating of 106.0 and the 2nd best defense with a rating of 95.9. When you do 10 games splits, Spurs ratings were 102.7/91.6 for the first 10 games and 109.3/100.1 for the last 10 ones. Spurs offense is getting better while the defense is following the other path.
A reason of this defensive drop is the defensive rebounding where Spurs have gone from elite to average. Another reason is Spurs being especially poor defensively in garbage time like the 126.0 defensive rating for De Colo in the last 10 games shows.
Free throws:
Spurs are dead last in the NBA in free throws attended by game at only 16.4. If they continue at that pace, they will be the worst team in the history of the NBA at getting at the line with the second worst being last year Magic at 16.6 FTA/G.
Last season, Spurs weren't good at getting at the line but they were significantly better (22nd in the league at 21.0 FTA/G).
A look player by player in the evolution of FTA per minutes compared to last season:
Parker: -24%
Duncan: -12%
Splitter: -22%
Diaw: +57%
Ginobili: -68%
Mills: +140%
Leonard: -44%
Green: -62%
There is a drop for all Spurs biggest free throws shooters (Parker, Duncan, Splitter and Ginobili). There might be a different explanation to explain each drop. Parker said that he would take it easy the first couple of months after a busy summer, teams might be more reluctant to foul Splitter now that he is done being labelled as a poor free throw shooter...
Leonard getting that little to the line is disappointing. While he is having his best statistical season, he hasn't shown the offensive leap we could have hoped for.
Danny Green is also worth mentioning. In 468 minutes, he went 6 times to the line. 153 players have played that much minutes this year and Green is dead last among these players in FTA/min.
The starting lineup:
Last season, Spurs had an ultra dominating starting lineup of Parker/Green/Leonard/Duncan/Splitter. This year it's a whole new story. While they are a little worst defensively, with a rating going from 87.7 to 92.3, they are still very good at the end of the court but the true issue is offensively. This lineup went from an 105.9 offensive rating last season to a 90.6 offensive rating this year.
Some stats show it:
- They have made 6 threes in 127 minutes played together with a 20.7 3P%. At last year rate, they would have made 15 threes with a 44.4 3P%.
- That have attended 26 FT in 127 min. At last year rate, they would have attended 47 FT.
- They have scored 12 fast break points while it would have been 36 with last year stats per minute.
Behind these ugly stats, there are a lot of personal issues and limitations. Parker isn't as dominant as last season. Duncan was horrible offensively earlier this year. Leonard is stagnating and hasn't shot the ball well this year. Green is a streaky one trick pony whose offense rely on others. I also find Duncan and Splitter less mobile than last year. As it stand, this team just badly lack of, spacing, speed and playmaking.
It is likely premature to break a lineup that was so dominant last season but if it continue, this lineup will have to be broke up one way or another. A contender, with a 16-4 record, just can't have a starting lineup with a negative +/-.
Spurs bench:
With the starting lineup struggling offensively, Spurs receive a nice offensive lift from their bench. Diaw, Belinelli and Mills are just having great season. Ginobili is also playing relatively well. It's not a surprise that these 4 players lead Spurs in offensive rating.
Belinelli is also 2nd in the NBA behind Reggie Jackson in net rating. He has been a tremendous fit for Spurs so far.
Tim's offense is back:
Duncan's first 10 games: 11.7 ppg with a .375 FG% in 28.6mpg. 12/53 (22.6%) from midrange.
Duncan's last 8 games: 14.5 ppg with a .533 FG% in 26.4mpg. 17/35 (48.6%) from midrange
While 8 is too small of a sample size to draw definite conclusions, like 10 games was too small to blurry him, Tim has been back, at least offensively, at a level close to the level he had in the past two years. We will see if it continues.
A new Manu?
While Ginobili is having overall a good but not great season, he isn't playing like in the past. 2 stats shows it:
First, he is averaging 1.7 FTA per 36 minutes while in his 11 previous season he was between 4.3 and 7.3.
Second, he is leading the league in FG% on drives with 74.1% (min 30 drives). And it's not like he is never driving to the basket since he has made 60 drives this year.
It really looks like Manu is avoiding contact. He is giving what the defense is giving and isn't forcing the issue anymore. So now the question is : what are the reasons behind that change?
Is he pacing himself and keeping his energy for after the all star break?
Have all the injuries taken a psychological toll on him? Is he scared?
Has he lost his drive to win and now just want to have fun?
Is he taking a relative backseat to build his teammates confidence?
Does he think that at his stage of his career there is more negative than positive when he is aggressive?
Is he just physically incapable of forcing the issue?
I honestly don't know the answer. What I know is that there will be a point in the playoffs where Spurs will need him to be aggressive. I have no clue if he will answer that call.
A defensive beast:
Splitter has been a a defensive monster this year with Spurs. He currently led the league in defensive rating at 86.9. The second player is Roy Hibbert at 90.0. When Tiago is on the court, opponent are shooting less than 40% from the field.
On the other hand, Spurs defense has been average without Tiago with a 102.1 rating. This effect has even reached crazy proportion, Spurs defensive rating is 87.5 with him on the court and 107.0 without him.
While he will never be considered for the DPOY award because it's all about blocks, rebounds and hype, Splitter is currently one of the best defensive player in the NBA.
when i saw random thoughts i thought it was timvp...
great write up though
Excellent post! Thanks!
Wow!! Excellent, excellent write up. I agree with virtually everything you said. Your observations are right on, imo.
1. Splitter really IS our defense now, and the perimeter players really need to get their act together and stop the parade of three point shooting against us.
2. Tim is getting taken to the woodshed by an increasing number of centers and power forwards for other teams. Last night against Toronto was a painfully clear example of it. TIm's offense is coming around, but he no longer has the mobility to be as powerful a defender as in the past. He can still rebound when he gets interested, but he seems to need to have a fire lit under him to get interested.
3. I don't know what is going on with Kawhi, but it is not good. He seems to become more tentative almost every game. One thing that the Spurs coaching staff has never been particularly good at is integrating a third shooter/playmaker. Remember that that is one reason why Manu was put in charge of the second team. They just simply don't seem to know how to utilize a third scoring/playmaking threat when Tim and Tony are both on the floor. (Well, that and the fact that we had no real backup for Tony and still don't.) Likewise, Danny has spurts of greatness and then fails to cover his man repeatedly on defense, and is really struggling to make anything other than 3 pointers. That may change, but the Spurs offense is not as good when he is not making his shots, and you never know if he is going to show up or not.
Tony is being covered fairly extensively in other threads, but it is clear that he is not as aggressive on either end as he was last year. Maybe you are right that he is planning to rev it up after the all-star break. But I think it is also clear that other teams have figured out our offense by now and it is harder and harder for us to accomplish what we used to do with considerable ease. And I think that is affecting Tony as well. Plus, as I said in another thread, maybe Tony is coasting, but he looks flat out bored to me.
Bellinelli is the happiest discovery of the year, so far. He is just dynamite, and I pretty much expect him to take Danny Green's place in the starting line-up before the end of February unless Green really picks things up.
If Baynes can play consistently as he played against Toronto, he is gonna have a really big place in the rotation, and Bonner and Ayres are going to be fighting for the fifth big position. But that is a big IF for Baynes. He is clearly a work in progress, and he will never be able to spread the floor a la Bonner, but I can see Baynes and Diaw playing together very well anchoring the second unit. It will be fun to watch.
Overall, we don't look very crisp against the really good teams, but we also don't look like we care overmuch. Pop has never been good about getting his teams UP for games. He needs to figure that out and fast or we will be a mediocre team that gets bounced in the second round of the playoffs. It can happen. It has before.
no surprises tbh
- Belli is a gem and contending for MIP as predicted
- Duncan is first to go through post game 6 Apocalypse recovery
- Rest of the Spurs would hit a wall eventually and deal with the Apocalypse themselves
- Belli saving Manu's career
- Green is a 1 trick Pony who should have been traded day after game 7
- Spurs good record is mainly due to league thanks to Stern and his rule changes to make the game more offensive to please average fat american fan
as said, no surprises so far tbqh
Thank you Bruno! Enjoyed reading.
In other words, I should put Beli and Mills on my fantasy team watch list.Spurs bench:
With the starting lineup struggling offensively, Spurs receive a nice offensive lift from their bench. Diaw, Belinelli and Mills are just having great season. Ginobili is also playing relatively well. It's not a surprise that these 4 players lead Spurs in offensive rating.
Belinelli is also 2nd in the NBA behind Reggie Jackson in net rating. He has been a tremendous fit for Spurs so far.
How about Ayres playing so bad? Shouldn't it be a little bit of a surprise considering that he was signed for over $3 million?
Magnifique, Bruno! You covered everything that I was wondering about!
Great write-up!
From what I've seen:
1. Duncan's massive weight drop from the past few seasons is catching up. He's having trouble guarding bigger players with a lot of size/athleticism. While its been noticeable in the past with Abaka and even Favors recently, its becoming alarmingly apparent. Luckily I think it's by design with Splitter proving capable as a defensive anchor; Tim can guard the smaller big man threat while patrolling the paint and Splitter can be the primary defender on opposing teams best bigs (ex: Splitter on Hibbert, Tim on West and Splitter on Abaka, Tim on Porkins/Collision/Adams
2. I might be the only one, but it's clear to me Tony and, to a lesser extent, Manu are coasting and preserving themselves. As long as they get into the playoffs healthy and in rhythm, I'm not worried.
3. Green's what he is (and what we know he is), a streaky player; you keep starting him because when he's hot the Spurs are near unstoppable. While he's cold he's still the Spurs' second best perimeter defender.
4. Leonard is beginning to worry me, but I think most of us knew deep down he wasn't Paul George 2.0. His ceiling is high but it prolly won't be reached until the Spurs stop contending (when Tim/Manu are gone). Not sure what's up with his shot (doesn't look broken), but they can fix the starting lineups offensive woes for good by getting him going closet to the basket. Last couple of games its seemed as if thats what they're doing.
5. King Beli for MIP/Manu for 6MOTY tbh.
6. Diaw has regresses unfortunately, but it might just be his injury. We'll see.
7. I really don't think starting Beli would would be the best idea. If the starting lineup keeps sucking, Spurs should trade Green + whatever for a vet. Beli and Manu off the bench is too potent to break up, plus as hater said Beli is saving Manu's career. Keep the bench intact as much as possible.
8. Its been said, said again, and the issue has been beaten, burned, shredded, and then some, but Ayers is a massive failure. At least Baynes is around to clean up the mess.
9. I hate to say it, but for the Spurs to win it all this year I'm more and more certain the Spurs will need to make a trade. Amir Johnson, Marvin Williams, Trevor Ariza, etc.; Spurs need a smallball 4/another 3. Part of the reason Leonard isn't developing as we thought is due to a lack of significant playing time (averaging less than 28 mins a game last I saw). Its possible he isn't getting it because the medical staff is that worried about his knees. If so, Spurs are ed if he gets hurt anyway, but not having insurance with the window nearly shut is spitting on all Tim has done for this franchise.
10. Spurs have been somewhat ed by injuries (tho they've been relatively healthy). Diaw plays the whole game against Houston, Spurs win. Splitter plays the whole game against Indy, Spurs win. That OKC game had loss written all over it and Portland is not a contender (
11 pts, 4.7 assists, 3.6 rbds and 1 stl on 23 mpg is as great as it gets, tbh. The only thing preventing him from having his usual borderline all-star numbers is playing time. I don't know what more can we expect from him at this stage of his career, if he keeps putting these numbers for the whole season (thing I doubt 'cause it would be pretty hard to mantain these stats on such limited playing time) he would have a pretty damn great season, imho.
Bruno with the goods per par
no surprise at all tbh. This is what I concluded after 1 look at Ayres:
the real surprise if any, is Baynes monster play last game. I did call that mofo a damn scrub after all
Thanks for the writeup... what was the rationale for picking .650 or better? Just the Spurs win-loss record?
Just seem odd. Normally the breakdown is on .500 (wether the other team is a winning team or not).
A 126 defensive rating for De Colo sounds about right.
As far as Manu, I would agree with DAF's post... he had a small 3-4 game slump, but the last few games he's been great on per-minute production (minutes that have been cut short due to games being decided early).
I also think Manu simply trusts this second unit more and doesn't have the obligation to create for everybody. In part that's due to Belli coming in, and also Patty raising his game.
I'm pretty sure if Spurs had lost to all teams over 50% that would be the case
It's called picking and choosing numbers, ala timvp
Splitter has always been a great defender, but his increase in rebounding has made his DRtg soar. Meanwhile Green has stopped rebounding when he plays the two which has hurt him. He still rebounds as a forward though. Last night, he put in good minutes at the four.
Leonard can't shoot and can't drive. He is really out of place in a big lineup. Parker may need to space the floor more or else I don't see the starting offense getting better. Green can't space the floor for everyone, and he's too streaky anyway.
None.
It was just another way to say that Spurs have lost against the 4 best teams they have faced and win all the other games against lesser teams.
It's probably done to include a team like Houston, considered by many to be elite and to exclude teams like Phoenix and Denver, who aren't elite.
A great Ginobili is a Ginobili with a PER in the 22-24 area like he has been many years in his career. A Ginobili with a 19.3 PER like this year is a good Ginobili. I don't give him an age discount bonus.
I'm fine with Manu and Tony coasting, but I'd like to see Pop use this time to run plays for Green and Leonard. This is the time you let them figure out what they can do under pressure, not the playoffs when Parker is shut down.
A cool Green wrinkle I saw yesterday was a PnP between him and Parker when Green was the four. That's a nice play to keep in their back pockets to use to force a switch. I've said it over and over again that Leonard needs to set more screens. He'd be a good roll man with practice.
You do realize that that dip in PER is in big part because of the decreased number of minutes played right? What can he do about that?
It's re ed to expect a 36 years old Ginobili on a restricted minutes watch to post numbers like if he was on his prime playing 30 mpg. Specially for you who said that it was "unrealistic" to expect Ginobili to perform better than last season.
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