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what about uh huh! and Boner?
While PER isn't necessarily an ideal stat, it can give you at least a broad look at how players are producing out there... remember that a PER of 15 is always the "league average".
In this series through 6 games, for players that have played at least 48 mins (in parenthesis, their PER during the RS):
1. Tiago Splitter: 24.2 (16.5)
2. Tim Duncan: 22.1 (21.3)
3. Manu Ginobili: 21.3 (20.0)
4. Boris Diaw: 15.2 (14.1)
5. Danny Green: 13.8 (13.9)
6. Tony Parker: 13.6 (18.9)
7. Kawhi Leonard: 12.6 (19.4)
8. Patty Mills: 8.6 (18.7)
9. Marco Belinelli: 3.1 (15.0)
Without drawing too many conclusions about the numbers, it's clear that the Spurs only have 3 players playing at an "above average" level in this series (rounding up Boris number gives you basically the average), compared to 5 (or 6 if you count Tiago) in the regular season.
- Tiago has actually elevated his game greatly. He has clearly been a matchup advantage.
- It's clear that Tony will be the focus of any defensive scheming by an opposing team, and that he doesn't look in tip top shape, so his drop is up to an extent somewhat expected.
- Kawhi has been somewhat dim in this series, perhaps it has to do with Dallas having good rebounders in Dalembert and Marion. Kawhi does a lot of damage on the offensive boards, and it hasn't been much the case this series.
- Patty and Marco show a terrible drop. There's really no explanation to it other than they're massively choking. It's not like they're playing against a top bench/defense in the league.
Overall, the Spurs just simply have played subpar basketball. Carlisle is a great coach, and has a solid plan, but it cannot possibly account for such a massive drop in production.
Haven't played enough minutes. Here's the breakdown on those guys (remember the sample is just too small):
Bonner 25mins (8.6 PER, 11.2 RS PER)
Ayres 9 mins (-2.3 PER
, 11.1 RS PER)
Cojo 9 mins (18.6 PER, 14.7 RS PER)
IMO to make PER more of a complete stat you should look at (PER - opponent PER), sort of like a net PER rating.
I hate PER almost as much as win-shares. Thanks for the stats anyway, Nono. In the very least we can see that Beli and Mills were doing the things PER values in the regular season and are now failing to do such things. That means something, even if I think PER is a poor reflection of overall value.
LOL Ayers
Pretty revealing stats!
So, if, say, we have 4 players next match above the avarage, around the top 3 guys' numbers, we should, repeat, should, be winning next match?
Parker choking in the post-season for the hundredth time. Not surprising. If TP played to his season numbers, this series would be over in five games.
I'm not even sure such stat exists... I mean, defensive assignments change even within a single game.
At any rate, feel free to post it if you find anything different. PER is certainly far from a stat to draw major conclusions, especially when the numbers barely change. But a drop of 8+ points is pretty major, no matter how you look at it.
I guess you should consider Dallas' defence having stepped up as well and focusing on him. Plus, he's purportedly injured.
It sure as is better than gut feelings and eyeball tests by armchair GMs, though.
Dejuan Blair: 28.03 (13.2 mpg)
As I was telling jARS, it's not the complete picture, but when you have such a massive drop on a stat calculated on actual boxscore values, then we're definitely seeing some major chokes in certain areas.
I've seen an opponent PER allowed stat before although I'm not exactly sure how they keep track of the fact that defensive assignments change, as you said.
Convenient excuse. Anytime TP's playing like in the playoffs, the injured excuse come out. People just don't want to accept the fact that Parker's a ty post-season performer. Always has been. Always will be.
PER definitely has its flaws, but is there any single stat that doesn't? PER ignores defense outside of steals/blocks (which are horrible indicators of how good of a defender someone is), and tends to reward high usage/high volume players...but it's still generally a decent indicator of how someone is playing. Obviously with guys who play few minutes there's a higher chance of having inflated values (*cough*DeJuan Blair*cough*).
I think if you combine PER with prior knowledge about a player's defensive abilities, you can generally put together a pretty accurate evaluation of someone.
Is a 4 above-20PER-players combination a relevant stat? Or am I talking crap?
For comparison, here are similar stats for Dallas in this series:
1. Dejuan Blair 28.0 (17.3)
2. Brandan Wright 21.0 (23.5)
3. Vince Carter 20.5 (15.9)
4. Monta Ellis 17.3 (16.8)
5. Samuel Dalembert 16.9 (16.8)
6. Jose Calderon 15.7 (15.2)
7. Devin Harris 14.9 (14.6)
8. Shawn Marion 14.0 (13.7)
9. Dirk Nowitzki 13.5 (23.6)
10. Jae Crowder 7.3 (11.9)
Dallas has basically 5 players playing "above average". Not surprisingly, their top 3 are bench players, and other than the massive drop on Dirk, even the players that are not playing better are at least not playing much worse.
Depends. If you have 4 guys with above-20 PERs who actually play noticeable minutes, then that's usually a good sign. But if 3 out of the 4 guys with 20+ PERs hardly ever play, then it's pretty meaningless.
I just posted the Dallas numbers this series compared to the RS... not a perfect picture, again, but I thought interesting nonetheless.
Well, we may never know if that's true or not.
I'd like how Parker reacted during last game and from what had been so far a bellow acceptable performance from him he did handle the pressure positively and delivered, despite that last turnover, the bad pass below the rim, which sorta ended his run.
It's certainly better than that whole, "Player X would not make the same mistake Player Y made," thing people use with Neal and others.
Yeah. They've had similarly horrible drops in WS/48 as well, going from hidden bench gems to no longer rotation-worthy. Crazy. Much worse than 2011 Green or anything Bonner's done in several years.
Good data, their supporting cast's been the difference maker apparently. Or rather, our lackuster supporting cast.
I see, this isn't so straightforward then
Duncan has looked painfully old this series tbh. The weight loss allows fat players like Dejuan to push him further off the block. But Dallas being able to front him when Blair is in is inexcusable.
basically since game 1 i've been begging for more minutes to Green since he can adequately defend Ellis. in game 6 he was playing good on D and was knocking down shots, and he still couldn't stay on the floor late. i've lost hope for his minutes
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