Chazley's Blazers series preview

[chazley]

Coming off an incredible series against the Mavs, who played significantly better than anyone expected, alot of Spurs fans are worried about what could happen against a team like Portland with a lot more talent and two guys who are lethal in the pick and roll (Lillard & LMA) similar to Ellis and Nowitzki. Don't fret though Spurs fans, I think there are some stuff we can exploit against the Blazers, and a guy like Belinelli could play a huge roll this series.

Damian Lillard:



Lillard has proven himself to be one the best long-range shooters in the league. Through his first two seasons, he set an NBA-record for most 3-pt FG made and attempted. He shoots them often and converts them at a high rate. You've got to chase him off the line and rely on your backend defense against him. He is not a great finisher, in fact he is below the league average. So anytime you can chase him to the rim and let Tim contest his shot it is a good possession for the Spurs.

Defensively, you have to attack him with confusing sets and lots of screens and backdoor cuts. He doesn't read this stuff well and the Spurs will get some easy stuff off of Lillard throughout the series. Expect to see alot of Danny Green running through multiple screens and making Lillard work early and often.

Wesley Matthews:


Matthews is a fantastic player who is undoubtedly the Spurs biggest matchup problem. The first inclination is to put Parker on him, but Matthews is a 2-guard who can murder smaller guards in the post. Posting up is something defenses will give up because they are generally low-efficiency. The Spurs may just have to concede this in order to let Danny stick on Lillard, and I'm sure we'll see Kawhi guard him for stretches, but this will likely be a situation where Parker is just gonna have to do his best in the post vs Matthews.

Defensively, Matthews will likely guard Kawhi or Tony. I suspect we will see him on Tony early on. Tony should be able to exploit this, as Matthews is more of a bullish defender than a quick one.

Nicolas Batum:


Batum is a great defensive player and a good offensive player. Kawhi will likely be guarding him. I really like this matchup for the Spurs defensively because Batum is the guy you help off of if you are on the perimeter, and Kawhi is great at getting his hands in passing lanes. Batum isn't gonna kill you from three. What you don't want is him getting to the rim, where he's one of the best in the league around the basket. You give him a little space on the perimeter and let him try to do too much. That is a good defensive possession.

Defensively Batum is a different beast. He is gonna be on Tony for long stretches of the game and for sure in the fourth quarter. Tony has traditionally been bothered by long, athletic guys and that's exactly what Batum is. This is a series where our 'others' are gonna have to carry the load offensively because Batum is a shutdown defender. Manu especially will have to be big.

Lamarcus Aldridge:


I feel that we match up very well with LMA. Splitter had an absolutely incredible series against Dirk, who is the perfect warm-up for a guy like Aldridge. Bonus: he doesn't have 3 point range. He's one of the league's best from midrange, everyone knows that. However, any possession the Blazers have that ends with LMA taking at least a semi-contested midrange shot is a great defensive possession for the Spurs. I think doubling LMA is a huge mistake, even if he gets really hot. He's not great going to the rim, so he's not going to burn you like that. This team feeds off of what LMA creates off his midrange game. Don't leave their shooters open, and let Aldridge try to play hero ball. The Rockets figured this out by putting Asik on him, and LMA didn't have a great series after the first two games.

Defensively, LMA will be switching between Splitter and Duncan. He's actually a good defender, so I don't see many ways that the Spurs will be trying to exploit him.

Robin Lopez:


This is the guy you absolutely don't have to worry about. You are free to double off of Lopez, just don't leave him wide open. Otherwise, you are ecstatic everytime Robin shoots the ball. You must put a body on him every time the Blazers shoot, he's one of the best offensive rebounders in the league.

Defensively, Robin Lopez is a stud rim protector and low-post defender. He rebounds very well and alters alot of shots. Timmy could run into some trouble vs. Lopez in the low block but you've still gotta dump the ball to Tim and try to pick up some easy fouls on Lopez, because once he is out of the game their defense becomes abysmal.

I think this series, we are going to see alot of big games from guys like Belinelli, Green, and Manu. Basically, whoever Lillard is guarding. Kawhi will have to do a much better job in the post if the Blazers decide to hide him on Kawhi, because you absolutely have to pick on him. This will be an exciting series, both teams are very evenly matched. We are in for another dogfight.

Spurs in 7.

[Fireball]

Nice preview! Thanks. Danny Green really will have to do his best to stay with Lillard. Good that Danny ended the last series positively - he is one of the few guys on the roster who needs more minutes to be effective on both sides. Its unbelievable how much his defense and offense feed from one another (just mentally as he does not get Kawhi like fastbreaks). Agree about letting Aldridge shoot his midrange jumpers, but the Spurs have to rebound. This will be a main concern as Lopez and guys like Robinson can really crash the board offensively. Most people here said during the regular season that jump shooting teams are not sustainable in the playoffs, well, lets test that ...

[TampaDude]

Just win, baby!

[Brazil]

Good read thanks Chaz

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Thanks for that.

[Anonymous Cowherd]

Good preview. Durability and fouls are going to be crucial this series. Portland only have a 7-man playoff rotation compared to our 9-man one, and have to play their main guys 40+mpg. Their big off the bench Dorrell Wright can't play center, and after that it's T-Rob who's also a PF and only playing situational minutes. If we can get Batum, LMA or Lopez that will be a major plus.

[jiggy_55]

Nice preview! Go Spurs Go

[spurspokesman]

Good read chaz. I think this is a better matchup for the spurs as they struggle with big and fast guard i.e ellis, westbrook which portland doesn't have. lillard is great but not as fast and explosive as ellis which ttroubled us against dallas due to his penetration and creating openings for others when we doubled. I think green and parker can keep lillard in front of them a little better than they did with ellis

[DarrinS]

Good stuff. Spurs need to keep them off the charity stripe. Blazers are a good FT shooting team and they take a LOT.

[BillMc]

Really nice preview. Thanks!

[Beaverfuzz]

Not too sure if you want Aldridge going off for 40+, let someone else like Wes or Nic beat you. And I've seen at least half of the Blazer games this year if not more...helps to live here.

[cjw]

Whichever team makes it to the finals from the west will have 19-21 games behind them to the Heat's 12-14 (assuming 4-0 or 4-1 from here on out). Let's hope the Nets replicate their regular season success, that Indy refinds itself or Washington plays out of its mind.

But that's looking way too far ahead. Great preview above and I think that this past series got us ready for the Blazers; should be no letdown.

[raybies]

first of all thanks for a great post.

imo the spurs need to be aggressive. they need to attack as much as possible like the game 7 against the mavs . they have a disadvantage with their bench. if we can get them into foul trouble and put theM through some adversity with different lineups then their inexperience could put the outcome in our favor.

now I don't think its gonna be a short series but the longer the series goes swings to our favor cause of experience. how will they respond to the pressure of a game 7.

the spurs need to strike fast. portland got off to a quick start vs Houston and never looked back. they weren't put in a situation whe theiron inexperience was put to the test. tough task considering the days rest and both teams coming with momentum. good thing we have homecourt .

[EVAY]

Thanks for the write-up. I enjoyed it because I really never pay attention to Portland. Not sure why. Guess I will now.

[wildchild]

Good read. Thanks chazley!

I think there are some stuff we can exploit against the Blazers, and a guy like Belinelli could play a huge roll this series.

Agree. He was scoring hot in regular season against the Blazers, playing more than Green and Leonard in those games.
But I'm a bit afraid about that because Pop could choose offense-first over defense again -like he did in game 2 and 3 vs Mavs- and play Beli more than is advisable. Against Portland, we can't hide his bad defensive on anyone.
I hope the Blazers doesn't take our shooters out -as Mavs defensive scheme- and Danny can play long minutes in this series.

[LongtimeSpursFan]

Thought le read "Charles Barkley series preview".

[T Park]

Yeah if Duncan can be agressive and get Lopez low upfake and draw fouls on him, then the offense gets really easy,

[Dex]

Good stuff.

[ElNono]

thanks chaz... worth pointing out also is that Batum has guarded Manu extensively too during the regular season, especially when Manu has a hot hand. Batum was not very effective defensively in those cases though.

[313]

Good read. Though, I wouldn't sleep on Wes Matthews, he can def knock down the long ball.

[Drew2354]

Great stuff! Finally a good post!

[chazley]

Thanks for the kind words everyone. I really think we're in for a fascinating series.The Spurs are going to have to be top-notch defensively for four games to pull this out - I think they have it in them.

[Rummpd]

Nice numbers analysis on series - few gems
[url]http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/05/06/numbers-preview-spurs-blazers/

notes:


Spurs
•Best shooting team of the first round, with an effective field goal percentage of 54.3 percent.
•Shot 22-for-24 on clutch-time free throws.
•Marco Belinelli had the worst individual plus-minus (minus-60) of the first round.
•Danny Green was the only player to make more than half of his 3-pointers on at least 20 attempts.

[itsamanuthree]

Good job OP!

[Gummi Clutch]

what a terrible preview.