Blazers-Spurs notes, tbh..

[Malik Hairston]

Lamarcus Aldridge
According to Aldridge, Tim Duncan was the man that provided him with his first glimpse of the realities of NBA dominance. It hasn't affected Aldridge going forward, though, as he has completely annihilated the Spurs in the past few seasons.


Since 2011, Aldridge is averaging approximately 25 PPG on roughly 60% shooting against San Antonio. As Tim Duncan's mobility progressively declined and as analytics became prominent in the NBA culture, the Spurs were one of the first teams to utilize the strategy of happily conceding the mid-range jump shot, particularly from opposing big men.


Aldridge has admitted that his specialty, the 15-18 foot jump shot, is the least efficient shot in basketball, and that even his own Portland team attempts to force their opponents into taking said shot. While the Spurs have been fine with allowing these shots, they certainly haven't been able to stop them.


Whether it has been Carlos Boozer, David Lee, Kevin Love, etc, the Spurs have had trouble against jump-shooting bigs, with Aldridge being the best in the league in this category.


Lamarcus Aldridge does his best work out of the pick&pop, where he is statistically elite, and this is the staple of the Portland offense. It doesn't matter where it is on the floor, Aldridge will kill you, as Spurs fans have seen the past few seasons.


While Aldridge is certainly capable at posting up, where he rated above average this season, the Spurs ranked 7th in post-up defense this year, so it shouldn't be a major problem. Both Splitter and Duncan are excellent post defenders.


Spurs offensive strengths vs. Portland's defensive weaknesses


The Spurs were the #1 pick&roll offense this season, which they fully displayed in the latter part of the Mavericks series. Portland was the 28th ranked pick&roll team this year, their weakest defensive attribute. While the Mavs' pick&roll defense was horrendous for most of the series, they actually ranked much better than the Blazers at defending the pick&roll this season, which is good news for the Spurs


The Blazers' bigs aren't necessarily bad at defending the pick&roll(neither ranked poorly and won't be liabilities like Nowitzki and Blair), but their team defense seems to collapse against the pick&roll ball-handler, particularly once the guard drives inside, part of the reason they ranked 29th in points in the paint allowed.


Portland also struggles to defend in isolation, where all their perimeter defenders ranked poorly, particularly Lillard, Matthews and Williams. Batum, like Kawhi, is overrated defensively due to appearance/perception, tbh(long and athletic gives the illusion of being a great defender, although Leonard isn't nearly as bad as Batum). He's a decent rotational defender, but a below average ISO defender and post-up defender.


Parker and Ginobili will and should be the primary attackers in the pick&roll, and Tony needs to attack in isolation, as well, as we saw in the 1st quarters of the Mavericks series.

Statistically, the position that gave Portland the most problems this season was the PG position. This will need to be Tony Parker's series. He doesn't need to play like he did in game 7 vs. Dallas, but he cannot play nearly as bad as he did in the series as a whole.


The Blazers were also a poor post-up defense this season, particularly against wing post-ups, where they ranked near the bottom of the league. Wes Matthews struggles against taller players in the post, while Batum's frame has given him trouble inside.

Kawhi Leonard should continue to receive post looks in this series against poor post defenders. Leonard struggled against Dallas's double teams, where he threw the ball back out and stalled the offense, but I'm not sure if Portland is willing to send a double his way like the Mavs did. Hopefully Leonard is prepared for it. With Duncan potentially being taken out, the spacing for Leonard should be optimal.


Cleaning up the glass
The Spurs struggled heavily against the Mavs on the offensive glass, which was a major reason for the Mavs' success in the series IMO. Whether it was Dalembert or Blair, both big men outhustled Duncan for most of the series.


The Blazers ranked 4th in offensive rebounding % this season, they are much better than the Mavs, which could cause major troubles for the Spurs.


Tim Duncan's role in this series


Timmy's offense was solid against the Mavs, outside of 1 game where he couldn't get an advantage over Blair, but his defense and rebounding was inconsistent.


Lillard, like Steph Curry in last year's playoffs, is going to cause Duncan fits. He ranked as one of the top pick&roll players in the league this season, and his extended range is going to force Tim into a disadvantaged position, just like Curry did.


To exacerbate this issue, Robin Lopez was the 5th most effective roll man in the league this season.


Lopez is a poor post defender, which means the Spurs are going to need to feed Duncan early and often to justify his presence on the floor IMO.


If Duncan isn't effective, offensively, Pop will need to strongly consider sitting him, like he often did in the Warriors series.


Tim's effectiveness on defense is largely based on his rim protection/altering and his post-up defense. The Blazers were 28th in points in the paint this season, and Robin Lopez isn't going to post very often. Defensively, Duncan simply may not fit in this series, at least not for extended stretches, especially if he isn't producing in the post.


Portland's offensive strengths vs. the San Antonio's defensive weaknesses


The Blazers live and die by the jump shot, tbh. Their purpose is to limit 3-pointers on defense and shoot 3-pointers on offense.


The Spurs' worst defensive trait this season has been their spot-up defense, especially when Duncan and Parker are on the floor. Timmy is often too slow to contest the perimeter, and Tony's team defense this year has been the worst we have ever seen from him.


The Blazers ranked #6 in spot-up scoring, mostly coming from 3-point shooting.


Defensively, Portland thrives at limiting perimeter shooting, where they also ranked among the best in the league. This will be imperative against a Spurs team that ranked best in the league in spot-up scoring. Like the Mavs, expect the Blazers to eventually hide Lillard and Mo Williams on Green/Belinelli and force Parker/Ginobili/Duncan to beat them.

Turnovers
The Spurs were destroyed against Dallas by turning the ball over, particularly in game 2's embarrassing performance.

Monta Ellis, Devin Harris and Shawn Marion did a large portion of their damage in transition.

The Mavs ranked 4th in steals per defensive play, which was on display for most of the series. The Blazers ranked last in steals per defensive play, they do not force turnovers, the Spurs need to keep it that way.

The Lillard match-up
As I said earlier, Lillard is a pick&roll monster, particularly from 3. That isn't his only strength, though, as he also ranked among the best in isolation efficiency.

Ideally, Danny Green will spend most of the time defending him, but based on last series, it's far from a given. Green was one of the best ISO defenders in the league this season, and easily the best on the Spurs roster.

One of the problems that will arise is hiding Parker, though. Wes Matthews ranked as one of the best perimeter post-up players in the league. Matthews doesn't have a notable triple threat game, but he easily takes advantage of mismatches in the post.

Batum doesn't have post-up skills, he only had a handful of post looks all season, but he wouldn't have any problems shooting over Parker, if the Spurs decide to go that route.

Personally, I expect Parker to guard Lillard for stretches, but if Pop opts to have him defending Matthews, I don't have a problem with it.

Defensively, Lillard will certainly hide on Green IMO. While Lillard is a competent team defender and a poor isolation defender, the Spurs won't be running ISO plays for Danny, obviously. Hopefully Pop draws up some screen plays for him, early, though. Lillard's team defense actually isn't that bad, his problems are ISO defense and defending through screens.

Green displayed some offensive skills outside of shooting in games 6 and 7 vs. the Mavs, though. He had some nice cuts to the basket and even a dribble-drive to the rim in game 7, something he is better at than the perception from Spurs fans. The Spurs need to take advantage of transition opportunities, as well, as that's where Green was able to get himself going in games 6&7 IMO.


Other notes

- Portland won't play a deep bench, their starters generally eat up most of the minutes. Mo Williams will see big minutes, though, and they run a Williams-Lillard backcourt at times, too. Robinson and Wright will see some time, but I expect a lot of small-ball from the Blazers.

The Spurs did not run a lot of small-ball this season, but Pop stated earlier in the season that they are prepared for it, if required. Leonard has been very successful at PF this season, albeit in a limited sample size.

- Belinelli was by far the worst player in the Mavs series, tbh. He had the worst offensive on/off by a bit, and by far the worst defensive on/off. While the Blazers don't have a Vince Carter on their bench, isolation defense isn't the only problem with Belinelli's defense. He constantly left Mavs' shooters wide open for 3-pointers on personal defensive breakdowns, and that would be suicide against a Blazers' team with an abundance of shooters.

- As I mentioned earlier, Portland doesn't defend the post well, and they ranked 29th in opponent's points in the paint. I don't know if Duncan can stay on the floor, defensively, so it's especially important that Leonard and Diaw in particular are attacking the paint in this series IMO.

[DPG21920]

Thanks for the post

I agree with most of it. Spurs aren't going to change their defense & neither will POR. It will come down to not only turnovers & rebounding (like always) but it will be Spurs PnR vs POR's jump shooting. Clearly POR is able to make those shots at a high clip, but who can sustain better looks over the course of a series?

Spurs are really tough to beat when they rebound well. If they don't allow 2nd chance points and keep TO's close, every game should be winnable at least. Then it's just a matter of Spurs PnR getting consistently better looks than POR's jump shots.

Spurs need to hit enough 3's to keep pace, but I personally like Tiago's chances to make LA work more than I do Lillard/LA/Lopez making the Spurs work out of the PnR. We will see..

[Robz4000]

Great write-up imo. Still think Blazers in 6 or have you changed your prediction?

[Stabula]

gay

[Malik Hairston]

I really don't know, tbh..

If Parker plays like he did for most of the Mavs series, I'll go with Portland in 6..

If he plays like he did in game 1 of the Mavs series, I think the Spurs can win in 6..

[Robz4000]

I think his game 1 play will be what we see from here on out. He won't be as dominant as last year, but the improved play of Manu should counteract it.

[pgardn]

This is a really good write up.


Just leave the tbh out of the le. I almost passed it by because of this irritating ST habit. Usually a crappy post follows, and this was really good.

[SpursFan86]

One thing I want to bring up: do y'all think fatigue will start to set in for Portland? You mentioned their rotation being incredibly short...look at their starters' minutes:

Lillard - 44.7 mpg
Matthews - 39.8 mpg
Batum - 43 mpg
LMA - 41.2 mpg
Lopez - 33 mpg (would've been higher had he not been in foul trouble in multiple games)

I know they're young, but that's a lot of minutes to be playing for a 10+ game stretch. They played their starters a ton in the regular season as well.

[Malik Hairston]

I don't think their fatigue will be an issue at this point, it could become a factor in the WCFs or NBA Finals, though..

Portland's starters play a lot of minutes, but they don't play a physical or taxing brand of basketball..if you consider both sides of the court, the Blazers spend less time in the paint than any team in the league, tbh..

[Gummi Clutch]

Portland is going to get the balls in your mouth treatment tonight.

[Malik Hairston]

The only Blazers that I really dislike are Mo Williams and Batum, tbh, so that will be 2 consecutive Spurs' matchups where I don't strong dislike or hate the other team..disappointing..

[Robz4000]

Same, though tschlong's tears should make up for it.

[SpursFan86]

One good thing about Portland having a short rotation: I don't have to worry about watching any scrubs go off and play like they're the reincarnation of MJ. At least when/if LMA/Lillard/Batum/Matthews go off, it'll be comforting to know they're actually good players.

Watching Devin Harris, DeJuan Blair, and Vince Carter (he's not a "scrub", but he played way above his head) torch us was infuriating.

[ElNono]

solid writeup thanks

[Gummi Clutch]

Also, one of the rare times where I have to admit Malik made a good post.

On Williams, what kind of got tries to start with a rookie?

[Malik Hairston]

One good thing about Portland having a short rotation: I don't have to worry about watching any scrubs go off and play like they're the reincarnation of MJ. At least when/if LMA/Lillard/Batum/Matthews go off, it'll be comforting to know they're actually good players.

Watching Devin Harris, DeJuan Blair, and Vince Carter (he's not a "scrub", but he played way above his head) torch us was infuriating.

ya, Devin Harris, the 30% 3-point shooter, becoming Steph Curry for the entire series was infuriating..

[313]

Good write up.

This series, and every series that follows for that matter, will come down to not allowing the opposing team to get up more shots than us. In other words, limit turnovers and offensive boards. Every time we give up one, it's a potential four point swing, where we're losing a possession and their getting one. We need to be scrappy, and win those 50/50 balls. No lazy passes, or not fighting for a rebound. There needs to be a high level of intensity and effort for 48 minutes. I saw a lot of that in game 7, IE Duncan diving to save the loose ball, and it led to a fastbreak dunk for Kawhi iirc.

cliffs: I want some nasty

[Mugen]

[Chinook]

Way too long of a post to only have three tbh's in it. Great job, though.

Even though Portland is going to play their first unit more than the Spurs will, the bench players the Blazers end up using are going to be at a disadvantage. Williams is not going to be able to guard Ginobili at all, so if the Blazers go with Mo as the two-guard, we may see Batum on Manu and Lillard on Mills. Patty's going to have to use his speed in those situations, if only to fatigue Lillard a bit. I love Robinson as a player, but he's pretty much a ball of energy on the court at this point of his career. Sure, energy is always important, and he can do damage as a more-athletic Blair, but he lacks Blair's skill and quick hands. I consider him a weak spot. I like Wright as well, but he isn't too hard for even a Beli to defend at the three, and he doesn't seem dynamic enough to cause Diaw or Splitter (or even Bonner) at the four.

If the Blazers go small with Wright at the four, then the Spurs can get away with staying big, especially with Diaw. If Batum is the four, though, then the Spurs should go ahead and actually go small. Going small seems to favor the Blazers, but I actually think it makes the cross-matches easier. That would be good for the Spurs, because even if Batum is checking Parker, Ginobili will be able to facilitate, whereas the Blazers have no such secondary creator. This is a fundamental difference between Portland and Dallas, as the Mavs had Calderon and Harris to run the offense if Ellis was being shut down. Also, this should leave at least one of Leonard or Green with a favorable match-up.

[xtremesteven33]

I have no idea what happens this series. We all know the stats, the matchups, and the hype. Lets get this started...

[spurraider21]

excellent work hairston

[xtremesteven33]

What ever happened to Malik Hairston tbh?

[Captivus]

10/10
Parker on Matthews...mmm....

[benefactor]

What ever happened to Malik Hairston tbh?

He's in Europe.

[Uriel]

tl;dr