Issues that could cause a lock out next summer.

[ducks]

msn.foxsports.com/story/2963542

Labor deal won't be a layup

Remember the good vibes the NBA and its players association created at the 2003 All-Star Game in Atlanta, when commissioner David Stern and union chief Billy Hunter appeared together to say the two sides would begin negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement in April 2003? We had no reason not to believe them, right?

Strange, then, that in the 19 months since that All-Star Game nothing has been accomplished. Strange that the NBA has given the union a pie-in-the-sky list of demands. Strange, too, that during a meeting in New York this summer, Hunter told a group of agents to warn their clients to save some money in preparation for a possible work stoppage next summer.

Despite the sunshine-and-lollipops language that came out of Atlanta, which seemed especially promising because the NHL was headed for labor strife and the NBA was coming off a damaging 1998 lockout, nothing has changed. One general manager says the league's hefty demands and the union's saber-rattling stand is mere posturing -- a deal will get done, but it will be ugly and might not be resolved until the 11th hour. That's exactly what Hunter and Stern promised to avoid. They haven't.
Now that we know we are in for the standard (and nauseating) rich-men-wrestling-over-$2 billion negotiations, we can brace for the issues that will provoke the most discussion.

Four-year maximum contracts. Currently, players can sign for a maximum of six years, seven if they're re-signing with their original teams. The league wants to cut that to four years to reduce the risk of locking into long-term guarantees. Three agents agree the league will win this one. It would be good for compe ion -- too many players, armed with long-term contracts, don't give a full effort each game.

Escrow tax. NBA players give 10 percent of each paycheck to an escrow fund. The league has a formula that divides total NBA revenue, with 55 percent to players and 45 percent to league owners. If the players make more than 55 percent, the owners make up the difference by keeping the money in the escrow account. If it's less, the players get the money back -- but they have gotten a rebate only once since the agreement went into effect for the 2001-02 season. This will be a top target for elimination by the union, and the league likely will concede.

Luxury tax. If players make 61 percent of the NBA's total income, the league enacts a luxury tax on the individual teams, charging those that spend too much on payroll a dollar tax for every dollar over the threshold. The union would like to see the tax gone, but the NBA never will agree because the tax has brought some fiscal sanity. In fact, one of the league's demands is to lower the tax threshold, which has riled the union. The league probably will agree to change the way the tax pool is distributed. Rather than redistributing tax money only to those teams under the threshold, the league could distribute that money to all teams.

20-year-old age limit. Oddly, this is an issue neither side is wedded to. The league included an age limit among its demands, and Stern (publicly, at least) will contend it's a big issue. Legally, though, an age limit probably won't stand up, and Stern must know that. The union is officially opposed to a limit. But most of the players would welcome one; they're not going to be 19 again, so why should they care? The union's opposition to the rule is driven by agents.

July moratorium. The league imposes a two-week moratorium in July, when free agents can be recruited but not signed. After the fiasco this offseason that resulted in the Cavaliers losing Carlos Boozer because the Jazz made a better offer during the moratorium, this rule will be tossed out altogether.

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

Four-year maximum contracts. Currently, players can sign for a maximum of six years, seven if they're re-signing with their original teams. The league wants to cut that to four years to reduce the risk of locking into long-term guarantees. Three agents agree the league will win this one. It would be good for compe ion -- too many players, armed with long-term contracts, don't give a full effort each game.

Thats the consensus I am hearing too and the very reason that Tony Parker will probably be advised by his agent to sign a six year less than max deal this fall...it's insurance against a blown out knee ending his career before locking in the big payday...

[KoriEllis]

Tony's contract should be done within a couple weeks, barring any unforseen setback.