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So which teams are notably absent in this list?Meanwhile, the other Western contenders have been furiously reshaping their rosters in an effort to match San Antonio's talent and cohesiveness.
West contenders load up for San Antonio showdown
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Can the San Antonio Spurs be sunk?
That's the question facing several teams in the Western Conference this offseason. With the Spurs having won three les in seven years and having been serious contenders the other four seasons, there's little doubt the road to the le will go through the Alamo City at some point. The Spurs suffered no important losses in the offseason and largely stood pat, with Argentine center Fabricio Oberto their lone acquisition. Meanwhile, the other Western contenders have been furiously reshaping their rosters in an effort to match San Antonio's talent and cohesiveness.
How have they fared so far? Let's take a look at the changes the top contenders in the West have made and how those moves fit with their goals at the start of the offseason:
Dallas Mavericks
Goals: Improve the D; don't panic
The Mavericks fell short against Phoenix in the postseason, but they have to like how they closed the season. Once Avery Johnson took over, the Mavs went 16-2 and nearly snuck up on San Antonio to take the Southwest Division.
Dallas resisted the urge to make wholesale changes, which had seemed to be an annual event in Big D. The loss of Michael Finley as a luxury-tax amnesty casualty obviously hurts, but the Mavs can weather that blow. Marquis Daniels should bounce back after an injury-riddled 2004-05 campaign, and the Mavs added defensive specialist Doug Christie, who should team with Josh Howard to give Dallas one Ginobili-stopper on the court at all times.
Of course, Dallas would have received a higher grade if it had done more in the frontcourt. Shawn Bradley retired, and Dallas replaced him by outbidding New York for überstiff DeSagana Diop. (You read that correctly. There was a bidding war for DeSagana Diop.) Thus, the Mavs again are short of candidates to stop Tim Duncan in the post, which could be telling if the two clubs meet in the conference finals. Grade: C+
Denver Nuggets
Goals: Upgrade at shooting guard; add shooters
Denver lost Voshon Lenard on opening night last season and muddled through the season with DerMarr Johnson and Greg Buckner sharing Lenard's shooting-guard spot. However, Denver didn't get nearly enough offense from those two, and the Nuggets' lack of 3-point shooting was a problem all season -- especially in their five-game defeat against San Antonio in the first round, when the Nuggets shot 11-for-42 from downtown.
Unfortunately, Denver might be even worse off this season. Johnson and Buckner both are free agents, as is shooting specialist Wesley Person. Lenard is slated to return, but he's 32 and coming off a serious injury -- and he wasn't that good to begin with.
Worst of all, the Nuggets have struck out completely in the free-agent market. Shooters like Marko Jaric and Michael Finley have rebuffed Denver's advances, forcing GM Kiki Vandeweghe to sift through the Ronald Murrays and Eddie Houses of the world for help. First-round pick Julius Hodge is another option, but he's not a shooter.
Thus, the Nuggets might have to trade from their frontcourt excess ( o, Nene) in order to fill this need. Grade: D-
Houston Rockets
Goals: Get younger; get a power forward
The Rockets also closed the season strongly, but age loomed large heading into the offseason. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady were the only rotation players under 30, necessitating a quick infusion of youth.
Houston made halting strides in that direction, signing forward Stromile Swift and drafting guard Luther Head, but its advanced age in the backcourt remains a red flag. Mike James is 30, Bob Sura is 32, David Wesley and Charlie Ward are 35, and Jon Barry is 36.
The Swift signing was huge in another respect -- it transformed Houston's greatest weakness (lame production at power forward) into a strength. Swift's 40-minute averages from the past three seasons suggest he'll average close to 20 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes, numbers Juwan Howard seemingly took weeks to ac ulate. Swift's man-to-man defense still needs work, especially if he's going to guard Duncan in the postseason, but his offense alone should add several games to the Rockets' win total. Grade: B+
Phoenix Suns
Goals: Keep the razzle-dazzle, but get tougher
Well, the Suns certainly got tougher.
Phoenix embarked on a quest to become a more physical, defensive-minded team after San Antonio conducted a layup drill on the Suns in the conference finals. Phoenix traded for Kurt Thomas and signed Brian Grant and Raja Bell. Thomas was one of the league's leading rebounders last season and should help out on the boards, while Bell is a hard-nosed defender and Grant a hustling, physical big man. Thomas and Grant also give Phoenix two players who potentially can guard Duncan in crunch time.
The question is whether these acquisitions destroyed everything that made the Suns good in the first place. It's hard to imagine the Suns running-and-gunning to 60 wins again with this roster. Up front, signing Grant was possible only because Phoenix let athletic big man Steven Hunter leave as a free agent, resulting in a serious downgrade at backup center. Trading for Thomas cost the Suns Quentin Richardson and a first-round pick, depriving Phoenix of a scorer on the wings. Meanwhile, Bell's addition was more than offset by the loss of Joe Johnson in free agency, meaning the Suns lost the two men most responsible for their league-leading 3-point barrage.
Moreover, the new guys don't seem to fit the Suns' playing style. It's hard to imagine Steve Nash having similar options on the break this season if he's waiting for Grant or Thomas to get over half court, much as it's difficult to picture Bell creating shots in transition or taking over the point when Nash checks out. Improving the defense was important, but one has to think the Suns overreacted to the conference finals loss to San Antonio. Grade: D+
Sacramento Kings
Goals: Replace C-Webb; build the bench
The Kings had more work to do than most teams after Seattle ran them off the floor in the first round of the playoffs. Fortunately for the Kings, they had an excellent offseason.
Armed only with their mid-level salary exception, they swooped in late to nab high-scoring forward Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He replaces the weak link in the starting lineup, Kenny Thomas, with a nightly 20-10 threat and gives Sacramento one of the game's best starting fives. Much like Detroit, the Kings are light on superstars but each starter is well above average at his position (Abdur-Rahim, Brad Miller, Peja Stojakovic, Bonzi Wells and Mike Bibby).
Signing Abdur-Rahim also puts Sacramento in great shape to rebuild a depleted bench, with Thomas moving to the pine and Corliss Williamson sliding to small forward. Plus, the Kings acquired Jason Hart from Charlotte for a second-round pick and have two assets remaining, restricted free agents Maurice Evans and Darius Songaila. One or both could be converted into a quality backup shooting guard via a sign-and-trade deal. The Kings still could use a big center to lay down the law in the paint, but they've improved themselves as much as any Western contender. Grade: A-
Seattle SuperSonics
Goals: Keep the core; improve the frontcourt
Last season, Seattle matched up with San Antonio the best. The Sonics' physical style frustrated the Spurs and allowed Seattle to extend the series to six tough games despite Rashard Lewis' absence.
That's why the Spurs might be breathing a sigh of relief when they look at Seattle's free-agent departures. The Sonics entered this offseason with virtually everyone on the roster a free agent. Although Seattle kept the most important piece, guard Ray Allen, several other key components have scattered. Super sixth man Antonio Daniels signed with Washington, and forward Damien Wilkins signed an offer sheet with Minnesota. Reggie Evans, Vladimir Radmanovic and Ronald Murray don't have contracts, either. In fact, even the coach left, as Nate McMillan took Paul Allen's bucks to become the new warden in Portland.
Seattle also wanted to improve the frontcourt, which contributed size and fouls but not much scoring last season. On this front, the Sonics have been slightly more successful. They let Jerome James walk, but he was taking minutes away from better players anyway. They re-signed Vitaly Potapenko, and first-round pick Johan Petro should exceed James' output. But losing Daniels in particular was an enormous blow -- Seattle's weak response was signing Rick Brunson -- and as a result the Sonics are very likely to fall off the pace in the West this coming season. Grade: C-
John Hollinger, author of "Pro Basketball Forecast 2005-06," writes for ESPN Insider.
So which teams are notably absent in this list?Meanwhile, the other Western contenders have been furiously reshaping their rosters in an effort to match San Antonio's talent and cohesiveness.
I don't see any team dethroning the Spurs unless injuries plague the Spurs
Kurt Thomas, and Brian Grant stopping TD. Did Phoenix not watch the Spurs' 99 playoff runs, he dominated them.
One has to think the Suns overreacted to the conference finals loss to San Antonio.
couldn't agree more.
lol, injuries. The spurs has probably the deepest team in the league.
So if TD gets hurt, or Manu, or TP the Spurs will make it to the Finals? Riiiiight! Oh yeah, its the Spurs have not has the deepest team.lol, injuries. The spurs has probably the deepest team in the league.
The spurs and injuries are nothing to lol about
ESPN insider: can ESPN write an article worth a ?
I think it's way too early to know how the season is going to go and who is going to be able to dethrone the Spurs. I do know that we have a big ass target on us and that everyone and their mother will be gunning for the games against us.
Very true, but even last season, I think a lot of teams did that cuz they knew we were championship material.
i like there being "ginobili stoppers" on the mavs. rofl
from odds on favorites to not even contenders - the t-pups have fallen far
Kippy boy, English is not everybody's first language in this forum.
wtfSwift's 40-minute averages from the past three seasons suggest he'll average close to 20 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes,
The Spurs won the championship with Tim having played through the summer, Manu having played non-stop for the past 3 years, a brand new center (Nazr), a cold streak (Barry), a rookie backup PG, a bad back (Devin), knee tendonitis (TP), bad ankles (TD), and Rasho.
They're coming back this season with rest, experience and new blood. Bring it on.
Doug Christie and Josh Howard (Mavs) as Ginobili-stoppers?
Don't make me laugh.
The averages also suggest that if Swift actually played 40 minutes a night he'd foul out nearly every game. Swift is a nice pick-up, but there's a reason he's hovered around 20 minutes a game for his career.Swift's 40-minute averages from the past three seasons suggest he'll average close to 20 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes
Who wrote this piece of garbage? For starters, no one in the entire vaunted Pistons roster was a "Ginobili stopper" and somehow Josh Howard and an aging, oft injured Doug Christie are the men for the job? They are good defenders, but that's going a tad too far. And that analysis of the Swift pickup is way off base. His numbers from the previous three seasons suggest a 20-10-3 because he played on a team with a relatively wide open style, a good PG, and no true superstars. He moved to a team with no reliable PG that probably ran the least of any team last year. He's an upgrade at the power forward for them, no doubt, but I just don't see how anyone on that team not named Yao or McGrady is even going to get enough touches to come close to averaging 20 pts. per 40 minutes.
And the Kings analysis? While I agree that they had a pretty good offseason, esp. considering that they didn't have a ton to spend, I would hesitate to refer to that starting five as one of the best in the league. SAR and Bibby are pretty good, but the other three are soft, soft, soft.
i wouldn't call brad miller soft.
The Suns and Rockets will be the Spurs main compe ion in the WC. Kings and Mavs below them.
The Suns are on the Mavs/Sac/Den now that they lost JJ.
I would! In the 2004 campaign, towards the end of the regular season when duncan was out. Remember the Sacramento game? We had just busted out our motion offense cuz Duncan was out for a while. Brad Miller got fouled in the 4th quarter and he looked like he was about to cry like the little pussy that he is. His eyebrows were dropping downward and his mouth was quivering and the little pussy was about to cry. No bull . I'd call that soft.
JoJo was not the greatest player in the world. He was a direct success of the system. It will be SG by committe and JJax/Bell will do fine. Bobo can shoot the ball fine, he's just not a PG like they want him to be.
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