GOPlifer blog: Missing Story of the 2014 election

[Winehole23]

Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.
What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the compe ive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.

http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/...on/#28114101=0

[Winehole23]

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic.


Behold the Blue Wall:
http://www.270towin.com/



The Blue Wall is block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. Tuesday that block finally extended to New Hampshire, meaning that at the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes without even trying. That’s 257 out of the 270 needed to win.


Arguably Virginia now sits behind that wall as well. Democrats won the Senate seat there without campaigning in a year when hardly anyone but Republicans showed up to vote and the GOP enjoyed its largest wave in modern history. Virginia would take that tally to 270. Again, that’s 270 out of 270.


This means that the next Presidential election, and all subsequent ones until a future party realignment, will be decided in the Democratic primary. Only by sweeping all nine of the states that remain in contention AND also flipping one impossibly Democratic state can a Republican candidate win the White House. What are the odds that a Republican candidate capable of passing muster with 2016 GOP primary voters can accomplish that feat? You do the math.


By contrast, Republicans control a far more modest Red Fortress, which currently amounts to 149 electoral votes. What happened to that fortress amid the glory of the 2014 “victory?” It shrunk yet again. Not only are New Hampshire and probably Virginia now off the compe ive map, Georgia is now clearly in play at the Federal level. This trend did not start in 2014 and it will not end here. This is a long-term realignment that been in motion for more than a decade and continues to accelerate.

http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/...on/#28114101=0

[Winehole23]

Democrats in 2014 were up against a particularly tough climate because they had to defend 13 Senate seats in red or purple states. In 2016 Republicans will be defending 24 Senate seats and at least 18 of them are likely to be compe ive based on geography and demographics. Democrats will be defending precisely one seat that could possibly be compe ive. One.

[Winehole23]

This is an age built for Republican solutions. The global economy is undergoing a massive, accelerating transformation that promises massive new wealth and staggering challenges. We need heads-up, intelligent adaptations to capitalize on those challenges. Republicans, with their traditional leadership on commercial issues should be at the leading edge of planning to capitalize on this emerging environment.


What are we getting from Republicans? Climate denial, theocracy, thinly veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings. Lots and lots of hearings on Benghazi.


It is almost too late for Republicans to participate in shaping the next wave of our economic and political transformation. The opportunities we inherited coming out of the Reagan Era are blinking out of existence one by one while we chase so-called “issues” so stupid, so blindingly disconnected from our emerging needs that our grandchildren will look back on our performance in much the same way that we see the failures of the generation that fought desegregation.

same

[Nbadan]

It's not all sunshine on the Democratic end either....many of the same groups that weren't interested in Hillary in 012 aren't exactly enthusiastic about Hillary in 016...and then there is Elizabeth Warren....Either candidate wins.....but Democrats will probably play it safe and go with Hillary just in case they don't manage to win back the Senate...

[FuzzyLumpkins]

McConnell’s conciliatory statements are encouraging, but he’s about to discover that he cannot persuade Republican Senators and Congressmen to cooperate on anything constructive. We’re about to get two years of intense, horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate scandal that reveals Obama’s real plans for America then you’re an idiot, but these next two years will be a (briefly) happy period for you.

This is an age built for Republican solutions. The global economy is undergoing a massive, accelerating transformation that promises massive new wealth and staggering challenges. We need heads-up, intelligent adaptations to capitalize on those challenges. Republicans, with their traditional leadership on commercial issues should be at the leading edge of planning to capitalize on this emerging environment.

What are we getting from Republicans? Climate denial, theocracy, thinly veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings. Lots and lots of hearings on Benghazi.

I love this guy. He gets it.

[boutons_deux]

"Lots and lots of hearings on Benghazi."

House intel panel debunks many Benghazi theories

A two-year investigation by the Republican-controlled House Intelligence Committee has found that the CIA and the military acted properly in responding to the 2012 attack on a U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, and

asserted no wrongdoing by Obama administration appointees.

Debunking a series of persistent allegations hinting at dark conspiracies, the investigation of the politically charged incident determined that

there was no intelligence failure,

no delay in sending a CIA rescue team,

no missed opportunity for a military rescue,

and no evidence the CIA was covertly shipping arms from Libya to Syria.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ecc3a...ghazi-theories

but ... Benghazi FOREVER!

[baseline bum]

It's not all sunshine on the Democratic end either....many of the same groups that weren't interested in Hillary in 012 aren't exactly enthusiastic about Hillary in 016...and then there is Elizabeth Warren....Either candidate wins.....but Democrats will probably play it safe and go with Hillary just in case they don't manage to win back the Senate...

Elizabeth Warren couldn't win a presidential election.

Not in this country. Unless she sells the out like that got Obama did to the banks and the insurance companies.

[boutons_deux]

Elizabeth Warren couldn't win a presidential election.

Not in this country. Unless she sells the out like that got Obama did to the banks and the insurance companies.

... and Wall St LOVES Hillary (it's mutual), hates Liz

[TheSanityAnnex]

I love this guy. He gets it.

How long do you estimate before a third party has a legitimate chance?

[baseline bum]

... and Wall St LOVES Hillary (it's mutual), hates Liz

Clinton vs Ryan 2016 is going to be the worst ing presidential election in this nation's history.

[baseline bum]

How long do you estimate before a third party has a legitimate chance?

At the presidency? Never. With three strong parties and no one getting 270 EV the assholes in Congress get to pick their own guys.

[TheSanityAnnex]

At the presidency? Never. With three strong parties and no one getting 270 EV the assholes in Congress get to pick their own guys.

The two party system is . The decline in people casting their votes in not encouraging either.

I won't see it in my lifetime but the information available on the internet may be our only chance of bringing both parties down for the corrupt mother ers they are.

[baseline bum]

The two party system is . The decline in people casting their votes in not encouraging either.

I won't see it in my lifetime but the information available on the internet may be our only chance of bringing both parties down for the corrupt mother ers they are.

Can't imagine congress, the president, and 3/4 of state legislatures voting to amend the cons ution to actually make three parties viable in a presidential election tbh.

[boutons_deux]

any 3rd party would have to be as corrupted by Big Money as the first two.

3rd party? keep on dreamin'

[SnakeBoy]

Elizabeth Warren couldn't win a presidential election.

Not in this country. Unless she sells the out like that got Obama did to the banks and the insurance companies.

Warren is one of the few people around who could give the GOP the WH in '16.