Hurricane Katrina!!!

[Nbadan]

Something else to think about...

[Nbadan]

This was posted today in another forum

First, the Superdome is likely to be about the safest place to sit out the storm if you can't get out. It was built after Betsy (Category Five when it touched land, Category Four winds at the city). It was build to survive "a Betsy". The real problem will be how to care for 100,000 people surrounded by 18' of water that is not going anywhere.

The real danger from this storm is not the wind damage (however catastrophic that may be). Winds from Betsy (I believe were about 160 at landfall, measured at Buras at the mouth of the river) dropped to 120 in New Orleans. The storm immediately started to lose power as soon as it crossed land.

The city of New Orleans and it's immediate environs are protected by levees of 18 feet. The storm surge could reach 28 feet. That means at some point a cascade of water ten feet high pouring over the levees at some points.

Because the city is mostly at or below sea level, all water has to be lifted out by massive pumping stations, many of which will also be inundated and out of commission.

So, if the any part of the levee impoundment (the area inside the levee) floods high enough to drown the pumping stations, that water will stay there. Ultimately, after the storm, they will have to dynamite the levees in places to let the water out and expose the pumping infrastructure to that the rest can be pumped out.

The problem will be that anyone who didn't evacuate to a facility that can keep you above 18 feet will possibly have drowned. And the survivors will be in the middle of a large man-made lake and require resupply by air and water. For days or weeks.

I believe the core city will survive. A new analysis of wind and water data from Hurricane Besty I found on the internet last night support my long-standing assumption that the areas most likely to be inundated are New Orleans East and St. Bernard Parish. These are the leveed areas east of the Industrial Canal that bisects the city proper and connects the river to Lake Pontchartrain and a ship channel called the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO)

The "Mr. GO" did catastrophic to the wetlands between impounded (leveed) New Orleans East and the River. And this is precisely the area where the storm surge is most likely to reach truly catastrophic proportions, with water sucked up the Mr. GO by the storm surge (essentially a localized tidal-like rise in water level caused by the very low air pressure in the storm) compounded by wind driver water in the north east quadrant of the storms.

The river threatens St. Bernard on the other side. In Hurricane Betsy, the river literally backed up, and rosed by as much as 20 feet, threatening to breech the river levees. It is widely believed that the US Army Corps of Engineers dynamited the levees in St. Bernard Parish to save New Orleans. If you want to dispute that in St. Bernard Parish, be prepared to fight you way out. I was editor of the weekly newspaper there, and talked to enough people to tend to agree with them.

The danger to the city and those who remain there is precisely that flooding. It could fill the impounded areas with water that might takes weeks to get down to a manageable flood, and a lot longer than that to clean up after.

In it's worse possible unfolding, this is going to look a whole lot more like the tsunami than any pictures you've seen of hurricane damage in Florida.

The eye is expected to cross News Orleans about 8-9 in the morning New Orleans time.

[Nbadan]

Here is a (still) live news feed from New Orleans with all the latest local updates.

[Nbadan]

NOAA's latest warning has Katrina downgraded to a CAT4

AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LA UDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
EITHER A CATEGORY FOUR OR POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.
WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

NOAA

[Nbadan]

Images from inside the Superdome:



Some of the thousands of displaced residents take cover from
Hurricane Katrina at the Superdome, a last-resort shelter, in New
Orleans about midnight, Sunday, Aug. 28, 2005. Officials called for a
mandatory evacuation of the city, but many residents remained in the
city. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)




Some of the thousands of displaced residents take cover from Hurricane
Katrina at the Superdome, a last-resort shelter, in New Orleans about
midnight, Sunday, Aug. 28, 2005. Officials called for a mandatory
evacuation of the city, but many residents remained in the city. (AP
Photo/Eric Gay)



Members of the National Guard hand out ready-to-eat meals to some of
the thousands of displaced residents from Hurricane Katrina at the
Superdome, a last-resort shelter, in New Orleans about midnight,
Sunday, Aug. 28, 2005. Officials called for a mandatory evacuation of
the city, but many residents remained in the city. (AP Photo/Eric Gay



Darriyell Washington, 7, takes shelter from Hurricane Katrina along
with several thousand other displaced residents at the Superdome, a
last-resort shelter, in New Orleans about midnight, Sunday, Aug. 28,
2005. Officials called for a mandatory evacuation of the city, but
many residents remained in the city. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)



Some of the thousands of displaced residents take cover from
Hurricane Katrina at the Superdome, a last-resort shelter, in New
Orleans about midnight, Sunday, Aug. 28, 2005. Officials called for a
mandatory evacuation of the city, but many residents remained in the
city. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

[Nbadan]

Folks, stock futures are selling...

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
September 2005 Change Price Last updated
S&P 500† -9.10 1196.80 8/29 2:12
Fair Value 1206.09 8/26 18:47
Difference * -9.29 8/26 18:47

September 2005 Change Price Last updated
NASDAQ† -12.50 1551.00 8/29 2:10
Fair Value 1561.76 8/26 18:47
Difference * -10.76 8/26 18:47

September 2005 Change Price Last updated
DOW JONES† -76.00 10331.00 8/29 2:10
DJIA contracts

CNN

It's the same on the international markets.

[whottt]

I think this is something Cheney and the Saudis cooked up to put the squeeze on us even more. It's W's fault.

[Nbadan]

Here is a pic of some of the devestation from Hurricane Andrew. Katrina is stronger.

[whottt]

I just heard that it's starting to lose power and isn't going to hit New Orleans with the hardest part of the storm as first feared. The pumps in NO are keeping the water out better than expected....it's also no longer a stage 5 Hurricane, it's moving at a faster rate, and the wind speeds are dropping with every measurement.


If you watched Fox News you'd know this already.

[Kori Ellis]

I just heard that it's starting to lose power and isn't going to hit New Orleans with the hardest part of the storm as first feared. The pumps in NO are keeping the water out better than expected....it's also no longer a stage 5 Hurricane, it's moving at a faster rate, and the wind speeds are dropping with every measurement.


If you watched Fox News you'd know this already.

CNN said the exact opposite. So I'm not sure anyone knows.

But it did slow to 150MPH - so it's category 4. But Category 5 starts at 156mph - so it's not that much different.

The eye closed, so the storm likely won't weaken anymore than it is right now. The west side of the eye wall is headed just East of N.O. .. so it might not hit NO head on, but it's still going to cause massive flooding.

[Kori Ellis]

Here's the official report from 4am (Central). The next one will come at 6am.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LA UDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAND
ISLE THIS MORNING... AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 53 MPH WITH GUST TO 91 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
...AND A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEW ORLEANS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 46
FEET.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.8 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[whottt]

CNN said the exact opposite. So I'm not sure anyone knows.

But it did slow to 150MPH - so it's category 4. But Category 5 starts at 156mph - so it's not that much different.

Foxnews>CNN...CNN has a handwringer audience and they play to it.

The eye closed, so the storm likely won't weaken anymore than it is right now. The west side of the eye wall is headed just East of N.O. .. so it might not hit NO head on, but it's still going to cause massive flooding.

Well they're not saying it's going to turn into a drizzle or anything...they just said it's probably not going to be as bad as expected...the pumps were performing better than expected too.

[whottt]

They just said that because the storm is moving so much faster (15 mph) and picking up speed that it's not going to dump as much water as it would have moving at it's original speed of 7 MPH, they said the levys might not overflow because of this.

[Kori Ellis]

Yeah, if the eye wall isn't over NO, then it shouldn't be as bad as it could be. However, it's still a major disaster. If it hits as a 150mph category 4, there's going to be major wind damage and flooding. Just hopefully the people will be safe.

[whottt]

Sheppard Smith is broadcasting from down on Bourbon Street and is saying their experts are certain it's not going to be as bad as was expected. It's still going to be bad...but not one of the the worst storms in history. He's evidentally basing that on the Fox Weather analysts and the local weathermen.

[whottt]

Yeah, if the eye wall isn't over NO, then it shouldn't be as bad as it could be. However, it's still a major disaster. If it hits as a 150mph category 4, there's going to be major wind damage and flooding. Just hopefully the people will be safe.

The key is if those levys overflow.

[Kori Ellis]

Sheppard Smith is broadcasting from down on Bourbon Street and is saying their experts are certain it's not going to be as bad as was expected. It's still going to be bad...but not one of the the worst storms in history. He's evidentally basing that on the Fox Weather analysts and the local weathermen.

Well hopefully that's the case.

[whottt]

They are saying Mississippi is going to get it worse than New Orleans and Lousiana they think.

[Kori Ellis]

The key is if those levys overflow.

True. We'll see what happens.

The windgusts in NO are over 70mph right now with fog.

[Kori Ellis]

They are saying Mississippi is going to get it worse than New Orleans and Lousiana they think.

Yeah because it moved a little bit to the East. Hopefully (for N.O.) it stays in that path.

[SWC Bonfire]

Nbadan, the refinery map is officially the most pertinant thing you have ever posted in this forum. Good work.

You have to be an optimist - I think that they are going to come out better than everyone thinks. Remember, refineries can be rebuilt, people can't.

[Nbadan]

More pics are starting to come in:



The Superdome's recognizable roof was showing wear and tear by midmorning. Normally, the white covering seen at right stretches across the full top. A few pieces of metal from the roof sheared off, leaving two holes that were visible from the floor. But state officials said the breaches wouldn't cause the roof to fail.



A New Orleans resident rushed through flooded streets to the safety of the city's Superdome after the roof of his house was blown off Monday morning. Hurricane Katrina made landfall around 6:10 a.m. CDT east of the city, which had been largely evacuated.

[Nbadan]

Some pics of New Orleans

[Nbadan]

[Jelly]

you mean the field in the Superdome? I think that had to do with the danger of the roof caving in. They were probably trying to prevent another kind of catastrophy. Why do people always automatically assume the worst in terms of why these decisions are made?