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I did this last year and some people found it interesting, so might as well do it again. I'll look at some of the more commonly seen lineups the Spurs have used this year, and highlight how they've performed.
Just to get this out of the way for some who might be unfamiliar with it: Net RTG is the amount of points you outscore (or get outscored by) your opponents per 100 possessions. +10 Net RTG --> you're outscoring opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions, -10 Net RTG --> you're getting outscored by 10 points per 100 possessions. Just for a gauge: Spurs are currently 5th in the league with a Net RTG of +5.36. The Warriors this year are 1st and have a Net RTG of +10.97. That's an all-time great level of play.
The starters - Parker/Green/Leonard/Splitter/Duncan - Net RTG = +23.9
This is our 2nd most-used lineup (~210 minutes played), and it's been absolutely dominant this year. Out of lineups that have played at least 100 minutes together, this is the 4th best 5-man unit in the league. Since the halfway mark at 41 games, this has been the 2nd best lineup in the league (+26 Net RTG). We should all be thankful that Pop stopped ing around and went back to putting Tiago in the starting lineup. FWIW, this unit last year had a Net RTG of +14.4...so this starting unit has done noticeably better this season.
The most common - Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - Net RTG = +6.2
A little surprising this lineup has played more than the previous one, but Splitter missed a lot of time this year and then Pop was being weird with his minutes for a while when he came back, so yeah. As you can see, they haven't been nearly as effective as the starters, but they've still done well. I think one of the biggest reasons this lineup has "struggled" is Diaw has appeared to be coasting for most of the season. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more obvious example of it tbh. I'm pretty sure I've seen more effort from Boris over the past month than I saw in the entire first half of the season combined. This was actually probably our best lineup last season (+28.9 Net RTG). A big difference has been Kawhi/Diaw's 3-point shooting. Both were legitimate threats from deep last year, but this year, both have struggled mightily in that aspect.
The ugly - Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - Net RTG = -9.9
Sheesh. This is the 3rd most common lineup, and they've been pretty terrible. On paper, it seems fine, and last year they did pretty well, particularly in the playoffs. Parker, Ginobili, and Diaw have all been extremely inconsistent this year. Some games Parker will look like he doesn't belong on an NBA team, and other nights he plays like a top PG. Manu has had a down year, and as I mentioned earlier, Diaw seems to have been coasting for most of the year. Parker/Ginobili is a pretty terrible defensive backcourt. As I mentioned with the last lineup, Kawhi/Diaw both struggling from 3 is a problem...but the spacing is really off with this lineup. Parker's mid-range game has been extremely mediocre this year. Duncan's jumper is all but non-existent at this point. Ginobili's mid-range jumper has seemed pretty inconsistent as well. I think shooting is one of the main flaws with this unit.
The Red Mamba - Parker/Green/Kawhi/Bonner/Duncan - Net RTG = -0.9
Our 4th most-used lineup. Please, Pop, don't play Bonner over Splitter save for a few special matchups. I think Bonner has gotten a little too much hate in the past, but at this point in his career, he really shouldn't be playing meaningful minutes. Not much else to say here.
The bench - Mills/Ginobili/Belinelli/Diaw/Splitter - Net RTG = -2.6
6th most common lineup, and here's one of the biggest differences from last season. This lineup was fantastic last year with a Net RTG of +31.9. This year? Not so much. Obviously Mills has struggled to gain rhythm since returning from injury and that's a big part of things. With Mills/Diaw both struggling from deep, and Manu not being as great of a shooter as he used to be, the spacing here can get rough. Belinelli hasn't been as lights out either. I'm still fine with this lineup though, and I like how Pop has been balancing Splitter's minutes between the starters and the bench. Gives the bench some added defense having Splitter out there. We just need to hope Mills gets back to form, and Diaw/Splitter continue their improved play.
The really ugly - Joseph/Belinelli/Green/Splitter/Duncan - Net RTG = -16.6
At this point, we're getting into lineups that have spent <50 minutes together. This one in particular has played 44 minutes together, and is the 8th most common lineup). Some conclusions can still be drawn, but you should be wary of the sample size here. Regardless, this lineup has clearly played like . Just on paper, it doesn't look pretty. Out of Joseph/Belinelli/Green, only Cory can really create for himself. None of those 3 are good at creating plays for others. At this point Duncan can't create for himself enough to carry an offense consistently, and Tiago has been inconsistent this year.
The surprising - Joseph/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Baynes - Net RTG = +26.6
Moving on down, this lineup has played about 40 minutes together, and has clearly done really well. Again, small sample size...but one thing worth noting: Joseph/Green/Leonard is an amazing perimeter defense crew, and I suspect that's a big part of why this lineup has had success.
Wow, seriously? - Parker/Ginobili/Green/Diaw/Duncan - Net RTG = -29.9
Our 10th most-used lineup at 35 minutes. God damn
Well that's it. Feel free to discuss some of these things and why you think certain lineups are doing well/struggling, or some other lineups you'd like to see more of. If you'd like to look at this information yourself, click here
Start cojo and we ring.
Does Pop ever field TP, Manu, Kiwi, Verde and Duncan? It would seem to be a good 'small' lineup but it doesn't make even the top 20 roster combos. Timmy in the middle our best two defenders along with Tony and Manu seems like a killer small unit but I guess Pop either knows better or saves it for the playoffs.
Kawhi has spent ~10% of his NBA minutes at PF...it's definitely not too common. I believe that number goes up for the playoffs though. Should we match up against GS in the playoffs, I think we'll see quite a bit of smallball with Kawhi at the 4, and either Duncan/Splitter (possibly even Diaw) at the 5.
I think The Ugly lineup (Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan) and the -9.9 NET Rating is a bit worrisome as this is the lineup that closes games for the most part. This lineup has 3 play makers but no outside shooting as OP said and thus, why this lineup is struggling.
Thanks for that. I'm hoping that with a healthy team and the apparent resurgence of Splitter, that the numbers will naturally trend higher.
Without any research, I'd guess those are the 4 oldest players on the team? Exacerbated by Parker's injury. That'd be my guess as to the terrible numbers for that group. A younger quicker Parker that could take over games probably would bring that number up considerably and explain why it was higher in the past.Parker/Ginobili/Diaw/Duncan have a net RTG of -16.8 in almost 200 minutes played. This 4-man unit has clearly not worked at all this year. This were solid last year (+7.8 Net RTG), but this year it's just been an absolute trainwreck. Any ideas for why these 4 have been THAT bad while playing together this year?
I believe Bonner is older than Parker and Diaw, but yeah, I'm sure age has something to do with it.
Just seems crazy that they're playing THAT poorly. -16.8 Net RTG isn't just playing bad...that's getting run out of the gym.
The starters - Parker/Green/Leonard/Splitter/Duncan - Net RTG = +23.9
Leonard carrying Parker
The ugly - Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - Net RTG = -9.9
Tony won't pass the ball to Kawhi
The stats for the first unit are skewed, tbh..I keep seeing that picture everywhere, but to be fair, the schedule has been extremely easy since Splitter was re-inserted into the lineup, and they have been mostly home games, too..
It's actually really interesting how good of a pair Kawhi/Tony are. They aren't why Green (and pretty much anyone), but they certainly seem like they know how to coexist.
Yup, does Net Rating adjust for strength of schedule? Some players missed a good bunch of the toughest part of the season, the December grind.
I hate seeing Manu stuck playing with all of the bench players and none of the other starters. He's still being played like a 6th man when he can't carry the bench anymore and carry them.
Poor young Mills is left out again.
Spacing isn't based on percentages, but rather perception/respect from the opposition. In other words, Ginobili has historically been a good shooter and a clutch one, so the fact that he's dropped from a high to mid 30's from 3, in recent seasons, doesn't mean opposing coaches are going to tell their players to play a step or two further off him when he's spotting up.
Out of all of the Spurs 3 point shooters that have struggled this season, the only ones I could see them doing this with, are Diaw and maybe Leonard. Historically, Diaw is somewhat erratic, low volume and reluctant. Plus, he's far more dangerous driving closeouts and making plays. Meanwhile, Leonard's lingering hand injury makes a significant uptick unlikely at any point this season.
I detest resorting to such cliche, layman analysis, but it's so obvious what the main culprit is in this case, with regards to the struggling lineups (with the exception of the one led "The really ugly"): Solid - great 3-point shooters not shooting their usual percentages. In theory, they're all lineups that should work well offensively and other than "The bench" and "Wow, seriously?", should be decent enough defensively. Of course, some of this context too.
I agree that it's a matter of perception, and teams aren't just going to say "Oh this guy is shooting X percentage, time to lay off him"...but idk, I've seemed to notice teams giving Manu more room when in that 16-23 feet area. Force him to pull up rather than let him get to the lane. Then again maybe this has always been the strategy since Manu's biggest strength has always been slashing.
But as for your last part, I completely agree. Someone made a topic a few days ago about the biggest problem with us this year, and people were saying a bunch of various things. I thought it was much simpler than all that: we're not hitting 3s nearly as well as we did last year. It's not a matter of us not getting open looks - we're still getting plenty. Guys just aren't hitting them.
Good information, but the sad part about this is, that no one ever understands, is basketball doesnt work like this. Basketball is a game against the clock, not a game against equal possessions - again stats are only beneficial in asking questions said anyone with any type of experience/degree/job in statistics.I did this last year and some people found it interesting, so might as well do it again. I'll look at some of the more commonly seen lineups the Spurs have used this year, and highlight how they've performed.
Just to get this out of the way for some who might be unfamiliar with it: Net RTG is the amount of points you outscore (or get outscored by) your opponents per 100 possessions. +10 Net RTG --> you're outscoring opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions, -10 Net RTG --> you're getting outscored by 10 points per 100 possessions. Just for a gauge: Spurs are currently 5th in the league with a Net RTG of +5.36. The Warriors this year are 1st and have a Net RTG of +10.97. That's an all-time great level of play.
The starters - Parker/Green/Leonard/Splitter/Duncan - Net RTG = +23.9
This is our 2nd most-used lineup (~210 minutes played), and it's been absolutely dominant this year. Out of lineups that have played at least 100 minutes together, this is the 4th best 5-man unit in the league. Since the halfway mark at 41 games, this has been the 2nd best lineup in the league (+26 Net RTG). We should all be thankful that Pop stopped ing around and went back to putting Tiago in the starting lineup. FWIW, this unit last year had a Net RTG of +14.4...so this starting unit has done noticeably better this season.
The most common - Parker/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - Net RTG = +6.2
A little surprising this lineup has played more than the previous one, but Splitter missed a lot of time this year and then Pop was being weird with his minutes for a while when he came back, so yeah. As you can see, they haven't been nearly as effective as the starters, but they've still done well. I think one of the biggest reasons this lineup has "struggled" is Diaw has appeared to be coasting for most of the season. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more obvious example of it tbh. I'm pretty sure I've seen more effort from Boris over the past month than I saw in the entire first half of the season combined. This was actually probably our best lineup last season (+28.9 Net RTG). A big difference has been Kawhi/Diaw's 3-point shooting. Both were legitimate threats from deep last year, but this year, both have struggled mightily in that aspect.
The ugly - Parker/Ginobili/Leonard/Diaw/Duncan - Net RTG = -9.9
Sheesh. This is the 3rd most common lineup, and they've been pretty terrible. On paper, it seems fine, and last year they did pretty well, particularly in the playoffs. Parker, Ginobili, and Diaw have all been extremely inconsistent this year. Some games Parker will look like he doesn't belong on an NBA team, and other nights he plays like a top PG. Manu has had a down year, and as I mentioned earlier, Diaw seems to have been coasting for most of the year. Parker/Ginobili is a pretty terrible defensive backcourt. As I mentioned with the last lineup, Kawhi/Diaw both struggling from 3 is a problem...but the spacing is really off with this lineup. Parker's mid-range game has been extremely mediocre this year. Duncan's jumper is all but non-existent at this point. Ginobili's mid-range jumper has seemed pretty inconsistent as well. I think shooting is one of the main flaws with this unit.
The Red Mamba - Parker/Green/Kawhi/Bonner/Duncan - Net RTG = -0.9
The bench - Mills/Ginobili/Belinelli/Diaw/Splitter - Net RTG = -2.6
6th most common lineup, and here's one of the biggest differences from last season. This lineup was fantastic last year with a Net RTG of +31.9. This year? Not so much. Obviously Mills has struggled to gain rhythm since returning from injury and that's a big part of things. With Mills/Diaw both struggling from deep, and Manu not being as great of a shooter as he used to be, the spacing here can get rough. Belinelli hasn't been as lights out either. I'm still fine with this lineup though, and I like how Pop has been balancing Splitter's minutes between the starters and the bench. Gives the bench some added defense having Splitter out there. We just need to hope Mills gets back to form, and Diaw/Splitter continue their improved play.
The really ugly - Joseph/Belinelli/Green/Splitter/Duncan - Net RTG = -16.6
At this point, we're getting into lineups that have spent <50 minutes together. This one in particular has played 44 minutes together, and is the 8th most common lineup). Some conclusions can still be drawn, but you should be wary of the sample size here. Regardless, this lineup has clearly played like . Just on paper, it doesn't look pretty. Out of Joseph/Belinelli/Green, only Cory can really create for himself. None of those 3 are good at creating plays for others. At this point Duncan can't create for himself enough to carry an offense consistently, and Tiago has been inconsistent this year.
The surprising - Joseph/Green/Leonard/Diaw/Baynes - Net RTG = +26.6
Moving on down, this lineup has played about 40 minutes together, and has clearly done really well. Again, small sample size...but one thing worth noting: Joseph/Green/Leonard is an amazing perimeter defense crew, and I suspect that's a big part of why this lineup has had success.
Wow, seriously? - Parker/Ginobili/Green/Diaw/Duncan - Net RTG = -29.9
Our 10th most-used lineup at 35 minutes. God damn
Well that's it. Feel free to discuss some of these things and why you think certain lineups are doing well/struggling, or some other lineups you'd like to see more of. If you'd like to look at this information yourself, click here
This lineup also put surprisingly good numbers: +20.9 in scoring, +16.3 assists (top), +6.7 rebounds (2nd best):
B. Diaw/T. Duncan/M. Ginobili/D. Green/C. Joseph
This was a lineup we ran a lot while Tony, Kawhi, Tiago, Marco and Patty were all injured at one time or another during December.
net anything doesnt mean . There are about one billion different variables on each of the hundred possessions - how anyone would use this to justify anything would be considered a dolt.
Nobody is saying this paints a complete picture. It's just one more tool to augment other information. It certainly has a value over zero, at least the Spurs think so.
But it legitimately doesnt - in terms of stats - Zero is an actual value that can be calculated and shown, while these "hypotheticals" or "averages" are manipulated numbers that aren't valid, or reliable. How can you make an educated assumption out of pretend and made up figures?
Its just like plus minus at the end of the game. I have johnny who subs in during a FT shot and sub out during FT made. He gets a plus one each time someone makes a shot but never touches the ball... not representative of what is going on
There's nothing 'pretend' or 'made up' about the numbers. They also don't paint a complete picture, and, as such, they shouldn't be the be-all, end-all of any conversation. Provided that you understand the information you're looking at, and you have a large enough sample size, it's a valuable source of statistical information: trends, tendencies, etc. You don't need a PHD to understand statistics. Your argument that statistics are useless flies in the face of reality, where statistics are used in a plethora of fields, including compe ive sports. The days of relying exclusively on 'eye test' are long gone, and those that don't want to weigh in these other tools are at a compe ive disadvantage. The Spurs understand that, and that's why they use analytics as one more tool in their toolbox.
What is more common is people overvaluing the numbers (ie: see Morey), and that's certainly an issue, but that doesn't automatically mean stats don't have value when placed in the proper context.
Isn't this the "advanced stats are stupid" argument? Stats are better than no stats, and that's the zero Nono is referring to. If stats are misleading then at least being misled has the potential to send you in a useful direction. Not being led at all takes you nowhere.
What's Danny doing? No idea
How's Tony playing? No idea
What's our team's strengths? No idea
All we know is W/L... so we cannot practice what works because we have no idea.
You described why sample size is important in statistics. Congratulations, you passed the Week 1 quiz in Stat 1
If your argument is "stats can't tell you everything", well no , of course you're right. No one is saying otherwise.
Arguing that they're useless, however, is an entirely different story. You can absolutely draw meaningful conclusions from advanced stats when used in the right context. The Spurs were ranked near the top of the NBA in terms of franchises that use analytics/advanced stats the most. You think they choose their players just on a whim or solely based off watching film? You're sorely mistaken.
This idea that advanced stats are useless is such a naive and antiquated way of thinking. I don't get why people are so afraid of numbers. No one is saying that you can subs ute watching games for just looking at stats. Just that stats can be a great tool in conjunction with watching the games.
Stats aren't perfect? The "eye test" isn't perfect either. People have biases. Our memories aren't flawless. Sometimes we can't watch every minute of every game. We can't focus on every little thing going on at once.
every lineup with manu on the list has a negative rating, but i'm not worried, dude is like yoda. looks like , but when his game face is on he'll come through
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