Spurs and SRS in the first round

[Seventyniner]

Year	1st opp	SA SRS	Rank	Opp SRS	Rank	Diff	HCA	Winner
1998	PHO	3.30	9	4.44	7	-1.14	PHO	SA
1999	MIN	7.12	1	-0.17	16	+7.29	SA	SA
2000	PHO	5.92	3	5.24	4	+0.68	SA	PHO
2001	MIN	7.92	1	1.81	12	+6.11	SA	SA
2002	SEA	6.28	3	3.24	7	+3.04	SA	SA
2003	PHO	5.65	3	1.56	13	+4.09	SA	SA
2004	MEM	7.51	1	2.95	8	+4.56	SA	SA
2005	DEN	7.84	1	2.23	10	+5.61	SA	SA
2006	SAC	6.69	1	1.61	11	+5.08	SA	SA
2007	DEN	8.35	1	1.69	9	+6.66	SA	SA
2008	PHO	5.10	7	5.13	6	-0.03	SA	SA
2009	DAL	3.36	7	1.68	11	+1.68	SA	DAL
2010	DAL	5.07	4	2.66	12	+2.41	DAL	SA
2011	MEM	5.86	4	2.55	10	+3.31	SA	MEM
2012	LAL	7.28	2	0.92	15	+6.36	SA	SA
2013	UTA	6.67	3	1.48	10	+5.19	SA	SA
2014	DAL	8.00	1	2.91	11	+5.09	SA	SA
2015	LAC	6.33	3	6.80	2	-0.47	LAC	???

Here is a breakdown of Spurs first-round opponents in the Duncan era based on SRS (explanation here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=39). SRS is a much better predictor of postseason success than win-loss record.

This will be the third time that the Spurs will face a team rated higher in SRS in the first round. Each of the first two were against the Suns, though each team involved was vastly different given the 10-year gap. The 2008 series was supposed to be a coinflip (game 1 basically was), and we didn't fully grasp what Duncan was capable of in his rookie year.

We can see here the dominance the Spurs have exhibited in SRS over Duncan's career. Only three times have the Spurs finished outside the top 4, and the Spurs managed three combined series victories in those years (one in 1998, two in 2008, none in 2009).

However, this year's Clippers team is the toughest first-round opponent the Spurs have had since drafting Duncan. The Clippers are the second-best team in the league by SRS and the Spurs will have to win at least one game on the road. The Clippers' SRS of 6.80 is worthy of at least the conference finals; having the 3rd-best SRS and yet having to face them in the first round is quite unfortunate. The Spurs have had remarkable success in the first round these past 17 years, but their most difficult task awaits.

This is a pretty small gap in SRS, so the smart money is probably on the Clippers winning in 7.

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Year	1st opp	SA SRS	Rank	Opp SRS	Rank	Diff	HCA	Winner
1998	PHO	3.30	9	4.44	7	-1.14	PHO	SA
1999	MIN	7.12	1	-0.17	16	+7.29	SA	SA
2000	PHO	5.92	3	5.24	4	+0.68	SA	PHO
2001	MIN	7.92	1	1.81	12	+6.11	SA	SA
2002	SEA	6.28	3	3.24	7	+3.04	SA	SA
2003	PHO	5.65	3	1.56	13	+4.09	SA	SA
2004	MEM	7.51	1	2.95	8	+4.56	SA	SA
2005	DEN	7.84	1	2.23	10	+5.61	SA	SA
2006	SAC	6.69	1	1.61	11	+5.08	SA	SA
2007	DEN	8.35	1	1.69	9	+6.66	SA	SA
2008	PHO	5.10	7	5.13	6	-0.03	SA	SA
2009	DAL	3.36	7	1.68	11	+1.68	SA	DAL
2010	DAL	5.07	4	2.66	12	+2.41	DAL	SA
2011	MEM	5.86	4	2.55	10	+3.31	SA	MEM
2012	LAL	7.28	2	0.92	15	+6.36	SA	SA
2013	UTA	6.67	3	1.48	10	+5.19	SA	SA
2014	DAL	8.00	1	2.91	11	+5.09	SA	SA
2015	LAC	6.33	3	6.80	2	-0.47	LAC	???

Here is a breakdown of Spurs first-round opponents in the Duncan era based on SRS (explanation here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=39). SRS is a much better predictor of postseason success than win-loss record.

This will be the third time that the Spurs will face a team rated higher in SRS in the first round. Each of the first two were against the Suns, though each team involved was vastly different given the 10-year gap. The 2008 series was supposed to be a coinflip (game 1 basically was), and we didn't fully grasp what Duncan was capable of in his rookie year.

We can see here the dominance the Spurs have exhibited in SRS over Duncan's career. Only three times have the Spurs finished outside the top 4, and the Spurs managed three combined series victories in those years (one in 1998, two in 2008, none in 2009).

However, this year's Clippers team is the toughest first-round opponent the Spurs have had since drafting Duncan. The Clippers are the second-best team in the league by SRS and the Spurs will have to win at least one game on the road. The Clippers' SRS of 6.80 is worthy of at least the conference finals; having the 3rd-best SRS and yet having to face them in the first round is quite unfortunate. The Spurs have had remarkable success in the first round these past 17 years, but their most difficult task awaits.

This is a pretty small gap in SRS, so the smart money is probably on the Clippers winning in 7.

Yet the Clippers have a losing record against teams currently in the playoffs this season. Clippers just did what the Spurs did last year, win games against sorry opponents (under .500). Spurs only lost like 2 last year. This year they lost 5.

Last year the Spurs were undefeated in OT and had the best record in the NBA in games decided by 4 points or less. This year they were 2-5 in OT and weren't close to their record last year in close games.

These metrics are very skewed as they don't show that the Spurs had the worse stretch of any team by far in December and just happen that both Kawhi and Parker were out.

Spurs have been the best team in the NBA since the allstar break. I usually go by that trend when assessing if a team is going to be successful. Remember, Memphis was the best team in 2nd half of the season when they knocked the Spurs out in the 1st round.

[hater]

They have chokepaul we have Evita.

It will definitely be a min 6 game series imo. The biggest choker will lose

[Pauleta14]

Memphis had all it's players healthy and ready, chose to lose in order to get their best match up (the spurs)...

Spurs are missing Splitter, fell from 2nd to 6th sport on the last game and end up with the worst match up possible...

I'm not saying it's over, but I don't agree with the comparison

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Last night's loss was the worst since Game 6.


You just knew the Spurs were finished once the final buzzer sounded.

Need a miracle, as Spurs match up very poorly with Houston as well.

[Seventyniner]

Yet the Clippers have a losing record against teams currently in the playoffs this season. Clippers just did what the Spurs did last year, win games against sorry opponents (under .500). Spurs only lost like 2 last year. This year they lost 5.

Comparing this year's Clippers to last year's Spurs doesn't look good for the Spurs this year...

Last year the Spurs were undefeated in OT and had the best record in the NBA in games decided by 4 points or less. This year they were 2-5 in OT and weren't close to their record last year in close games.

Record in close games is mostly random from year to year. The Spurs overachieved in that regard last year and underachieved this year. That's one reason the 2007 Mavs looked so good: they were extremely good in close games. However, the next year with mostly the same team they reverted back to the mean.

These metrics are very skewed as they don't show that the Spurs had the worse stretch of any team by far in December and just happen that both Kawhi and Parker were out.

Spurs have been the best team in the NBA since the allstar break. I usually go by that trend when assessing if a team is going to be successful. Remember, Memphis was the best team in 2nd half of the season when they knocked the Spurs out in the 1st round.

It's true that SRS doesn't take injuries into account. The gap between the Warriors and Spurs isn't as large as SRS would indicate because the Warriors were healthy all year. The Clippers did miss 15 games from Griffin, so that's comparable to Kawhi missing 18. The Spurs had slightly worse injury luck overall, so factoring that into SRS this season should make the teams roughly even.

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Comparing this year's Clippers to last year's Spurs doesn't look good for the Spurs this year...



Record in close games is mostly random from year to year. The Spurs overachieved in that regard last year and underachieved this year. That's one reason the 2007 Mavs looked so good: they were extremely good in close games. However, the next year with mostly the same team they reverted back to the mean.



It's true that SRS doesn't take injuries into account. The gap between the Warriors and Spurs isn't as large as SRS would indicate because the Warriors were healthy all year. The Clippers did miss 15 games from Griffin, so that's comparable to Kawhi missing 18. The Spurs had slightly worse injury luck overall, so factoring that into SRS this season should make the teams roughly even.

Considering the Spurs beat the Clips w/o Splitter and Mills and then w/o Parker and Kawhi (both times the Clips were at full strength), I would say that they proven they are better.