The Saudis Are Stumbling. They May Take the Middle East with Them.
http://fpif.org/the-saudis-are-stumb...ast-with-them/
America’s leading Sunni ally is proving how easily hubris, delusion, and old-fashioned inep ude can trump even bottomless wealth.
The kingdom’s first stumble was a strategic decision last fall to undermine compe ors by scaling up its oil production and thus lowering the global price. They figured that if the price of a barrel of oil dropped from over $100 to around $80, it would strangle compe ors. That, in turn, would allow Riyadh to reclaim its shrinking share of the energy market. There was also the added benefit that lower oil prices would damage oil-reliant countries that the Saudis didn’t like — including Russia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Iran.
The price of oil dropped from $115 a barrel in June 2014 to around $44 today. The Saudis need a price between $95 and $105 to balance their budget. While oil prices will likely rise over the next five years, projections are that the price per barrel won’t top $65 for the foreseeable future. Saudi debt is on schedule to rise from 6.7 percent of GDP this year to 17.3 percent next year, and its 2015 budget deficit is $130 billion.
The country is now spending $10 billion a month in foreign exchange reserves to pay the bills and has been forced to borrow money on the international financial market. Recently the International Monetary Fund’s regional director, Masood Ahmed, warned Riyadh that the country would deplete its financial reserves in five years unless it drastically cut its budget.
Meanwhile they’re racking up bills with ill-advised foreign interventions. In March, the kingdom intervened in Yemen’s civil conflict, launching an air war, a naval blockade, and partial ground campaign on the pretense that Iran was behind one of the war’s factions — a conclusion not even the Americans agree with.
Again, the Saudis miscalculated, even though one of their major allies, Pakistan, warned them they were headed for trouble. In part, the kingdom’s hubris was fed by the illusion that U.S. support would make it a short war. The Americans are arming the Saudis, supplying them with bombing targets, backing up the naval blockade, and refueling their warplanes in mid-air.
But six months down the line the conflict has turned into a stalemate. The war has killed 5,000 people (including over 500 children), flattened cities, and alienated much of the local population. It’s also generated a horrendous food and medical crisis and created opportunities for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to seize territory in southern Yemen. Efforts by the UN to investigate the possibility of war crimes were blocked by Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
Nor is Yemen the only war that the Saudis are involved in. Riyadh, along with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are underwriting many of the groups trying to overthrow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. When anti-government demonstrations broke out there in 2011, the Saudis — along with the Americans and the Turks — calculated that Assad could be toppled in a few months.
But that was magical thinking. As bad as Assad is, a lot of Syrians — particularly minorities like Shiites, Christians, and Druze — were far more afraid of the Islamists from al-Qaeda and the Islamic State than they were of their own government. So the war has dragged on for four years and has now killed close to 250,000 people.
Once again, the Saudis miscalculated, though in this case they were hardly alone. The Syrian government turned out to be more resilient than it appeared. And Riyadh’s bottom line that Assad had to go just ended up bringing Iran and Russia into the picture, checkmating any direct intervention by the anti-Assad coalition. Any attempt to establish a no-fly zone against Assad will now have to confront the Russian air force — not something that anyone other thancertain U.S. presidential aspirants are eager to do.
“The expensive social contract between the Royal family and Saudi citizens will get more difficult, and eventually impossible to sustain if oil prices don’t recover,” Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy project at Harvard, told the New York Times.
However, the House of Saud has little choice but to keep pumping oil to pay for its wars and keep the internal peace. Yet more production drives down prices even further. And once the sanctions come off Iran, the oil glut will become worse.
While it’s still immensely wealthy, there are lots of bills coming due. It’s not clear the kingdom has the capital or the ability to meet them.
Ally? them, Saudi Arabia is our biggest ing enemy in the middle east.
When Qaddifi wanted to get oil off the US dollar, look what we did to him.
BigOil defines our friends and enemies, not Human-Americans
yeah. People forget Qadaffi's Lybia had very similar welfare system to Saudi. Free education, health, housing and some utilities.
There was not much difference between House of Saud and House of Qadaffi, except Qaddaffi did not have US blessing
Man you really miss that guy.
I think what we did is a world crime.
Just look at Libya today. For no justifiable reason. He wasn't a threat to us. He knew how to deal with terrorists.
Problem, the terrorists knew how to use the western media to get first world nations to help their cause, because of all the ignorant voters. Now look at the Middle East.
Yeah, he was just a great guy.
You basically described Saddam Huddein, but you didn't like that guy because you were told not to.
you don't light a country on fire to punish 1 guy.
We've done that quite a bit actually.
thus my point.
Well, we want to wear the white hat.
I didn't know you thought that. He was not a "great guy" by any stretch. He changed in his latter years but he was still a man that dealt harshly with violators of his law. Under his rule, Libya enjoyed a constant improvement of life and economy. Now it's in shambles again, and hey now have a worse ruler.
I understand you are too ignorant to see the big picture. that's OK. Lib s like yourself live in a self deluded world. Rather than try to understand and respect those who are opposte to any of your PC beliefs, you are vilely bigoted towards them.
No. There is a world of difference between the two. But then, you think all Middle East dictators should be removed.
You understand and respect Qaddafi.
What's the difference?No. There is a world of difference between the two. But then, you think all Middle East dictators should be removed.
Explain yourself.
Only a simpleton like chumps would think Gaddafi and Saddam were basically the same
This explains a lot of his primitive views on the middle east
How are they different?Only a simpleton like chumps would think Gaddafi and Saddam were basically the same
This explains a lot of his primitive views on the middle east
Go into as much detail as you can.
Sorry brag. You just exposed yourself.
Go ahead and compare Mao to Thatcher in the next thread
Sorry brag, if you can't say how they're different, you just exposed yourself.Sorry brag. You just exposed yourself.
Go ahead and compare Mao to Thatcher in the next thread
Go ahead and deflect some more. Make up if you have to.
Train has left the station. You were left with your on your hand brag
Train has left the station. You were left with your on your hand brag
Sorry brag, if you can't say how they're different, you just exposed yourself.
Go ahead and deflect some more. Make up if you have to.
Gaddafi tried to get elected leader of the african congress and was rejected repeatedly. How do you expect he was going to manage that?
You are also aware that Sarkozy started the airstrikes? He's the French president btw.
The Saudi spending on it air campaigns and interventions is a negligible part of their overall budget, far dwarfed by the subsidies on electricity, which is practically free.
Sure.
Saudi seems to have spent about $1.5 billion in their air campaign alone, and that is reported number. The real number could easily be double or triple. So let's say $3 billion. yes still chump change but the truth is Saudi armed forces have proven they are pathetically innefficient. They have basically carpet bombed civilians and still taken heavy loses.
The guy they support, Hadi has more bloon on his hands than Gaddafi did. Yet the west is mute.
The real problem with Saudi war mongering is that they have been terrible at it. They thought Assad was going to be toppled in a matter of months, it's been 4 years and counting. They thought they were going to raze the Houthies, but the Houthies are pounding that ass. They are pathetic. Can you imagine what would happen if Saudi faces a capable army?
To be fair Iran is proving they are ty and pathetic too. Getting tons of their elite forces killed by a bunch of camel ers
Like I said before, the world should just let Saudi and Iran go at it 1 on 1. It would be hilarious to see 2 of the most expensive yet re ed armed forces in the world
Last edited by hater; 12-04-2015 at 09:01 AM.
There are some significant similarities.Train has left the station. You were left with your on your hand brag
They both ruled oil rich nations as dictators.
They both, at various times, were aided and vilified by the West.
The above are pretty significant. Saddam had a much larger military and ruled a much larger nation.
Why is it funny?
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