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It seems that everybody agrees that if the Cons ution is rejected next week, it would be a disaster. Sunni leaders were encouraging Sunnis to vote against it.
So the Kurds and Shiites have rigged the election downwards to make rejection almost impossible, pissing off the Sunnis who now talk about boycotting the voting, and pissing off US, etc.
If the Sunnis don't come into the process, then there will be almost no chance of a political, peaceful end to the Sunni/jihadi insurgency.
Essentially, no Sunnis, the insurgency will continue and the war against the insurgency will be unwinnable, so no democratic Iraq.
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The New York Times
October 4, 2005
Election Move Seems to Ensure Iraqis' Charter
By ROBERT F. WORTH
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 3 - Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish leaders quietly adopted new rules over the weekend that will make it virtually impossible for the cons ution to fail in the coming national referendum.
The move prompted Sunni Arabs and a range of independent political figures to complain that the vote was being fixed.
Some Sunni leaders who have been organizing a campaign to vote down the proposed cons ution said they might now boycott the referendum on Oct. 15. Other political leaders also reacted angrily, saying the change would seriously damage the vote's credibility.
Under the new rules, the cons ution will fail only if two-thirds of all registered voters - rather than two-thirds of all those actually casting ballots - reject it in at least three of the 18 provinces.
The change, adopted during an unannounced vote in Parliament on Sunday afternoon, effectively raises the bar for those who oppose the cons ution. Given that fewer than 60 percent of registered Iraqis voted in the January elections, the chances that two-thirds will both show up at the polls and vote against the do ent in three provinces would appear to be close to nil.
"This is a mockery of democracy, a mockery of law," said Adnan al-Janabi, a secular Sunni representative and a member of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's party. "Many Sunnis have been telling me they didn't believe in this democratic process, and now I believe they are vindicated."
The rule change could prove a serious embarrassment to American officials in Iraq, who have spent recent weeks struggling to persuade Sunni Arabs to vote for the cons ution and even trying to broker last-minute changes that would make it more palatable to them.
There was some confusion on Monday about the origin of the change. One member of Iraq's electoral commission said the commission had already made a similar ruling last month, while another member denied that. But Ali Dabagh, a moderate Shiite member of Parliament, said there had been no public ruling until Sunday's vote.
Mr. Dabagh also said the United Nations had expressed dissatisfaction on Monday with the rule change, and that the National Assembly would meet Tuesday to reconsider it.
There were indications from knowledgeable diplomats that the United States, too, was unhappy with the development and hoped it would be modified.
Other Shiite members of the assembly defended their action. They said that if only people who came to the polls were counted in the referendum, insurgent attacks could frighten away so many voters that the cons ution could be rejected on the basis of a small, unrepresentative sample of voters.
"You should not violate the rights of the majority," Maryam Reyes, a member of the Shiite alliance that controls a majority of seats in the assembly, said in support of the measure.
Ms. Reyes said the assembly members had not changed election law, but only clarified the meaning of the word "voters" in the relevant passage. The legal passage in question states: "The general referendum will be successful and the draft cons ution ratified if a majority of voters in Iraq approve and if two-thirds of voters in three or more governorates do not reject it."
In their vote on Sunday, the Shiite and Kurdish members interpreted the law as follows: the cons ution will pass if a majority of ballots are cast for it; it will fail if two-thirds of registered voters in three or more provinces vote against it. In other words, the lawmakers designated two different meanings for the word "voters" in one passage. "I think it's a double standard, and it's unfair," said Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish assembly member who, like many other lawmakers, said he had not been present during the vote and only learned of it afterward. "When it's in your favor, you say 'voters.' When it's not in your favor you say 'eligible voters.' "
In effect, the new interpretation makes not voting a show of support for the cons ution and runs against the apparent intent of the law. The National Assembly is empowered to change the transitional law - which was written under the American occupation in 2003 - but only with the approval of two-thirds of its members and of the Presidency Council. Because they regard their action as a mere clarification, the lawmakers did not seek that kind of approval.
There were also new signs of tension between the Shiite and Kurdish alliances that dominate Iraq's transitional government. Kurdish leaders threatened to withdraw from the alliance last month, and on Sunday a high-ranking Kurdish official called for the resignation of the Shiite prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Leaders of the two blocs met Monday night to iron out differences on a range of issues, including Kurdish demands for faster Kurdish resettlement in Kirkuk, the contested northern city.
If the Kurds were to follow through on their threat to withdraw, it would be a serious blow to Iraq's government. The Shiites have a narrow majority in the assembly, but if a vote of confidence were called and even a few Shiites were to vote against Mr. Jaafari, the government would collapse, throwing Iraq's public affairs into greater disarray.
Continuing insurgent violence across Iraq on Monday left at least a dozen people dead.
In western Baghdad, a roadside bomb exploded near a convoy carrying Ibrahim Bahr, the oil minister, apparently in an assassination attempt. Three of the minister's guards were killed and two were injured but Mr. Bahr was unhurt, Interior Ministry officials said.
In Doura, a lawless neighborhood in southern Baghdad, a car bomb exploded, killing two and injuring three. Elsewhere in the capital, three bodies were found Tuesday morning, with their hands bound and bullets in their heads, the officials said.
In Kirkuk, gunmen opened fire on a police patrol with a belt-fed machine gun, killing two officers and wounding three, police officials said. Two more police officers were killed just south of the city when a roadside bomb exploded on their convoy.
South of Baghdad in Hilla, a bomb detonated near a popular restaurant, killing one bystander and injuring three, witnesses said.
The nonprofit Human Rights Watch issued a report Monday stating that insurgents in Iraq have committed war crimes by making civilians the targets of mass killings, and that some of their abuses may cons ute crimes against humanity.
Abdul Razzaq al-Saiedi and Qais Mizher contributed reporting for this article.
* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
