Economists: A Trump win would tank the markets

[FuzzyLumpkins]

NEW YORK — Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House.
New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.

“Wall Street clearly prefers a Clinton win certainly from the prospective of equity prices,” said Dartmouth College’s Eric Zitzewitz, one of the authors of the new study along with the University of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers. “You saw Clinton win the first debate and her odds jumped and stocks moved right along with it. Should Trump somehow manage to win you could see major Brexit-style selling.”

Stock prices around the world tanked over the summer when British voters surprised pundits and voted in favor of pulling the country out of the European Union. Trump himself now talks about his own upset prospects as “another Brexit.”

The report also shows where investors around the world are making big money on the 2016 campaign. Traders betting on the Mexican peso to take a beating under a President Trump, who has promised a trade crackdown, have lost big following debates in which Clinton did well.
After hitting new lows against the dollar during Trump’s rise to the GOP nomination, the peso has ed higher following the debates and after the release of the audiotape showing Trump making disparaging remarks about women.

The Trump effect also shows up for traders betting on market volatility. Futures contracts for the VIX index, which tracks market volatility, fell sharply during the first debate, suggesting investors expect much less volatility under a Clinton White House than a Trump White House.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...#ixzz4NnQ6q0xR

[rmt]

NEW YORK — Wall Street is set up for a major crash if Donald Trump shocks the world on Election Day and wins the White House.
New research out on Friday suggests that financial markets strongly prefer a Hillary Clinton presidency and could react with panicked selling should Trump defy the polls and deliver a shocking upset on Nov. 8.

“Wall Street clearly prefers a Clinton win certainly from the prospective of equity prices,” said Dartmouth College’s Eric Zitzewitz, one of the authors of the new study along with the University of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers. “You saw Clinton win the first debate and her odds jumped and stocks moved right along with it. Should Trump somehow manage to win you could see major Brexit-style selling.”

Stock prices around the world tanked over the summer when British voters surprised pundits and voted in favor of pulling the country out of the European Union. Trump himself now talks about his own upset prospects as “another Brexit.”

The report also shows where investors around the world are making big money on the 2016 campaign. Traders betting on the Mexican peso to take a beating under a President Trump, who has promised a trade crackdown, have lost big following debates in which Clinton did well.
After hitting new lows against the dollar during Trump’s rise to the GOP nomination, the peso has ed higher following the debates and after the release of the audiotape showing Trump making disparaging remarks about women.

The Trump effect also shows up for traders betting on market volatility. Futures contracts for the VIX index, which tracks market volatility, fell sharply during the first debate, suggesting investors expect much less volatility under a Clinton White House than a Trump White House.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...#ixzz4NnQ6q0xR

Wall Street clearly prefers a Clinton win because they know that the low-interest rate, easy money environment that benefits Wall Street will continue (to the detriment of the saver/worker/seniors) - so get ready for more market/interest rate manipulation. Trump is the one saying that Yellen should be ashamed of what she's doing to the country, creating a "false stock market."

Traders want volatility - one makes much more money when the market moves (up and down) as opposed to long-term investors who prefer a steady increase.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Wall Street clearly prefers a Clinton win because they know that the low-interest rate, easy money environment that benefits Wall Street will continue (to the detriment of the saver/worker/seniors) - so get ready for more market/interest rate manipulation. Trump is the one saying that Yellen should be ashamed of what she's doing to the country, creating a "false stock market."

Traders want volatility - one makes much more money when the market moves (up and down) as opposed to long-term investors who prefer a steady increase.

The last sentence of my quote repudiates your wishful thinking, dim.

[rmt]

The last sentence of my quote repudiates your wishful thinking, dim.

Why does that repudiate my thinking? They expect a Clinton win - which will bring less volatility (caused the VIX to fall). Maybe you don't agree with the part "traders want volatility"? IMO, traders do - they play the ups and downs - or else they'd just put their money in an index fund, don't touch it and be satisfied with a gradual increase in stock prices.

[Splits]

deadduck.jpg

[Wild Cobra]

Doe this mean the corporations that are "too large to fail" will not be "subsidized by tax dollars" if they do fail?

[Wild Cobra]

The president can only pass or veto a bill. The congressional mix is what matters.

[rmt]

IMO, when it comes to the stock market, it's the Federal Reserve board that's all important - not Congress. Any hint of a rise in interest rates (from Janet Yellen or the Feds) sends the market in a tizzy.

[hater]

Of course the bankers and wall street would be in lers pocket

They invested so much in that pig already

[rmt]

Of course the bankers and wall street would be in lers pocket

They invested so much in that pig already

They're helping to fund her $2 billion campaign.

[Winehole23]

There's a reason bankers won't touch Donald Trump -- six bankruptcies.

[ducks]

wall street wants Clinton they know she can be bought
ofcourse they will say anything to try to help her

[Winehole23]

Trump is an unstable kook. He's politically ignorant and temperamentally unfit. That's why Wall Street and the US Chamber of Commerce won't get behind him.

[pgardn]

It's all about unpredictably. Donald has no clear plans on anything. No one knows for sure wtf he would do. This would be the by far the biggest reason to see an immediate downward reaction. Once the market adjusted to whatever Donald has in mind, then we might see stability again.

I feel pretty secure about the statements above.

[ducks]

Trump is an unstable kook. He's politically ignorant and temperamentally unfit. That's why Wall Street and the US Chamber of Commerce won't get behind him.

why do ice and boarder patrol and cops get behind him

[Winehole23]

Dunno. Because he strokes them off in public?

[ducks]

I know because boarder patrol people I talk to tell me they have to move to different locations because where they were at they were catching to many. GO over there where no one comes across they tell them. Is it not their job to catch the ones coming across illegally?

[Winehole23]

that's their job. they've been catching and deporting record numbers under Obama. whoever wins the election is likely to extend that streak.

[pgardn]

why do ice and boarder patrol and cops get behind him

Because they are underfunded and understaffed. We have spent plenty of money on surveillance, but manpower to actually grab every person who crosses is very expensive. And any so called wall would be very easy to get through. In the places where there are walls people get through anyway very easily.

Also know that legals carry large amounts of drugs through Canada as well as via all coastlines. Our own appe e for drugs is driving this business that will not stop.

[rmt]

Trump is an unstable kook. He's politically ignorant and temperamentally unfit. That's why Wall Street and the US Chamber of Commerce won't get behind him.

They want open borders and cheap labor - that's why they want Hillary over Trump. She's in their pocket and he's not.

[Winehole23]

So, you think government control of the free flow of goods and labor is good for business?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Why does that repudiate my thinking? They expect a Clinton win - which will bring less volatility (caused the VIX to fall). Maybe you don't agree with the part "traders want volatility"? IMO, traders do - they play the ups and downs - or else they'd just put their money in an index fund, don't touch it and be satisfied with a gradual increase in stock prices.

You said traders want volatility. The article states "The Trump effect also shows up for traders betting on market volatility. Futures contracts for the VIX index, which tracks market volatility, fell sharply during the first debate, suggesting investors expect much less volatility under a Clinton White House than a Trump White House."

If you cannot figure it out that is your problem. Go ahead and keep your harebrained notions. I'm not going to fight it.