2016-2017 Magic Number Thread

[Chinook]

Really? In February? Yeah, I don't think this is going to be used too much until the second half of March. But Golden State just clinched a playoff spot, and I'm bored. So why the not start this now?

As of 02/26/2017, the Spurs have clinched no worse than 13th in the West and 27th overall. In other terms, they haven't clinched yet. But that should change some time next week.

The magic number to clinch a playoff spot is four. They've already won the season series against Portland, but there are three-team scenarios where Portland can still end up getting in over SA. Unless the Spurs have a horrible week, this should be wrapped up by 3/6.

The magic number to clinch HCA for the first round is 16. While they probably only have to measure themselves against the Clippers for this spot, there are too many games to rule out Memphis and OKC.

The magic number to win the second seed and the Southwest Division is 21, though the Rockets game next month will count for a whopping three points. Losing that game would put SA behind the eight-ball for the second tie-break, so it's a slightly bigger game than you'd expect.

The magic number to secure HCA in the Finals is also 21. The game against Cleveland next month is worth only two points, surprisingly. This is because despite it being so early, the Spurs have already clinched the second tie-break over Cleveland. SA has a record of 21-5 against the East, while the Cavs are at 14-10 against the West. Cleveland can't find the 21 wins to tie the Spurs, and they can't do anything better than split with them in H2H, so they would have to beat them outright.

(They already secured H2H tie-breaks over Boston, Washington and Toronto, so those magic numbers are 17, 16 and 14 respectively.)

The magic number to win HCA throughout the playoffs is 29. The Spurs don't control their own destiny against GS, and they have even less room to maneuver than last year. The two match-ups against them are worth two points each and five points together, though a win in either would be worth three points.

(tl;dr: I'll probably update this thread next weekend then not touch it for another two weeks or so.)

[Drom John]

"The magic number to clinch a playoff spot is four. They've already won the season series against Portland, but there are three-team scenarios where Portland can still end up getting in over SA. Unless the Spurs have a horrible week, this should be wrapped up by 3/6."


"The magic number to clinch HCA for the first round is 16. While they probably only have to measure themselves against the Clippers for this spot, there are too many games to rule out Memphis and OKC."


"The magic number to win the second seed and the Southwest Division is 21, though the Rockets game next month will count for a whopping three points. Losing that game would put SA behind the eight-ball for the second tie-break, so it's a slightly bigger game than you'd expect."


"The magic number to secure HCA in the Finals is also 21. The game against Cleveland next month is worth only two points, surprisingly. This is because despite it being so early, the Spurs have already clinched the second tie-break over Cleveland. SA has a record of 21-5 against the East, while the Cavs are at 14-10 against the West. Cleveland can't find the 21 wins to tie the Spurs, and they can't do anything better than split with them in H2H, so they would have to beat them outright."


"(They already secured H2H tie-breaks over Boston, Washington and Toronto, so those magic numbers are 17, 16 and 14 respectively.)"


"The magic number to win HCA throughout the playoffs is 29. The Spurs don't control their own destiny against GS, and they have even less room to maneuver than last year. The two match-ups against them are worth two points each and five points together, though a win in either would be worth three points."

[Chinook]

Love the last pic, Drom.

[Dex]

Great work by both of you! Can't believe we are already in magic number time.

[BillMc]

Chinook gathering better info than the Warren Report.

[TheDoctor]

This is awesome. Sniff sniff tis the Playoffs season!

[Chinook]

As of 03/05/2017, the Spurs have clinched no worse than eight in the Western Conference and 16th in the league. That's a fancy way of saying they've clinched a playoff spot.


The magic number to clinch HCA for the first round is 10. While they probably only have to measure themselves against the Clippers for this spot, there are too many games to rule out Memphis and OKC. The 04/08 game would likely count for two points, but it's incredibly likely that the seed is wrapped up long before then.


The magic number to win the second seed and the Southwest Division is 16, though the Rockets game tomorrow night will count for a whopping three points. Losing that game would put SA behind the eight-ball for the second tie-break, so it's a slightly bigger game than you'd expect.


The magic number to secure HCA in the Finals is 15. The game against Cleveland next month is worth only two points, surprisingly. This is because despite it being relatively early, the Spurs have already clinched the second tie-break over Cleveland. SA has a record of 22-5 against the East, while the Cavs are at 14-10 against the West. Cleveland can't find the 22 wins to tie the Spurs, and they can't do anything better than split with them in H2H, so they would have to beat them outright.


(They already secured H2H tie-breaks over Boston, Washington and Toronto, so those magic numbers are 12, 10 and eight respectively.)


The magic number to win HCA throughout the playoffs is 24. The Spurs now DO control their own destiny. The two match-ups against the Warriors are worth two points each and five points together, though a win in either would be worth three points.


Now this is probably when the thread will go dormant for like a fortnight. The absolute earliest the Spurs could clinch another meaningful milestone is after the games on 03/13. It's more likely to take another few games to lock away LAC, WSH and TOR, though. What has somewhat great potential of happening is the team leapfrogging GS in the standings. Won't bump this thread if/when that happens, but the magic-number part of the chase will be much more straight-forward if the Spurs were playing from ahead of the Warriors instead of behind.

[Chinook]

As of 03/21/2017, the Spurs have clinched no worse than fourth in the Western Conference and sixth in the league.

Tonight's win over Minnesota has clinched HCA in the first round of the playoffs.

The magic number to win the second seed and the Southwest Division is six, the team's late victory over Houston has given them the tie-break.

The magic number to secure HCA in the Finals against Boston is two. They own the tie-break over the Celtics due to their H2H sweep.

The magic number to secure HCA in the Finals is five. Monday's game against Cleveland next month is worth only two points since the Spurs have long owned the second tie-break over the Cavs.

The magic number to win HCA throughout the playoffs is 13. The game next week against the Warriors is worth two points. The Spurs have already clinched the H2H tie-break.


There are some milestones coming up for the team within the next week or so. The biggest thing is that they get the six points they need to secure the 29th slot in the league. But it. Go big or go home.

[Chinook]

As of 03/27/2017, the Spurs have clinched no worse than third in the Western Conference and third in the league.


Tonight's win over Cleveland has clinched HCA in any possible Finals match-up.


The magic number to win the second seed and the Southwest Division is three.


The magic number to win HCA throughout the playoffs is 10. The game on Wednesday against the Warriors is worth two points. The Spurs have already clinched the H2H tie-break.



It's real simple now. The Spurs can practically sleepwalk to the two-seed. But the first seed is still within reach. If SA loses on Wednesday, I think Pop will pretty much pack it up for the rest of the season. If they win, especially with GS facing Houston twice this week, I think Pop keeps it going.

[Seventyniner]

It's real simple now. The Spurs can practically sleepwalk to the two-seed. But the first seed is still within reach. If SA loses on Wednesday, I think Pop will pretty much pack it up for the rest of the season. If they win, especially with GS facing Houston twice this week, I think Pop keeps it going.

And if the Warriors lose to the Rockets tomorrow we could be treated to both teams going all out on Wednesday.

[Chinook]

As of 03/31/2017, the Spurs have clinched no worse than second place in the league and in the Western conference.


Tonight's victory over OKC has clinched the second seed and Southwest Division le over Houston


The magic number to win HCA throughout the playoffs remains at 10.



The late game between Houston and GS has mild significance, because a Rockets victory opens up a chance for the Spurs to still steal the first-overall seed. It's incredibly unlikely, but it could be enough to force Kerr into playing his guys heavy minutes. If the Rockets can pull off the upset, I would go into Sunday's game with a full roster, if I were Pop.