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see bulls after mj
I know its probably a bit early to be talking about this, especially since the pre-season just started for 2005-2006, but I'm bored and drunk and City of Heroes servers where just brought down.
In reality we have some pretty "aged" characters on our team. After these guys hit their proverbial limit, what is going to happen to the Spurs?
We have:
Bruce Bowen, who is 35 as of June. IMHO one of the most EFFECTIVE players for the Spurs regardless of age, this will be a HUGE loss when he decides to retire.
Robert Horry, Who also recently turned 35 not 2 months ago. His retirement will be a big loss not just to the Spurs but a HUGE loss to the NBA in general. He will be put down in the record books as a legend on the hardwood.
NVE, who is going on 34 in November I believe. Cant say much about him as far as the Spurs but the guy IS good and I have no reason to believe that he will not come up big for our Spurs.
Another 3 or 4 years (at TOPS) and Duncan will be looking to retire (just facing the facts people, I wish he was omnipotent and everlasting). Hopefully we can land another prodigy before he leaves.
3 to 4 years (thats stretching it the way he has been playing) seems like a long time but the 1999 le is still fresh in my mind and it certainly doesnt feel like we have had Duncan for 8 years (97-98). In that context 3 or 4 more years doesnt sound like much.
Despite that, I believe Spurs will still be playoff contenders for a LONG time to come...... but le contenders? I can only hope.
How do you think the Spurs will turn out in the next 3-5 years (or after Duncan retires)?
see bulls after mj
I don't think they will be that bad, but they are going to go through some rough times.
With the F.O the Spurs organization have, I think we will be back sooner than most think...at least I hope. Thats why we all should really appreciate the feeling of being a Spurs fan now.
when duncans contract runs out, hope he signs on for another 5 years, unless he wants to retire and spend time with his family, if he does sign again, expecting him to play a limit role in the spurs team and passing the torch onto a new franchise player.
Duncan will be playing longer than another 3/4 excluding serious injury, the next 3/4 years will still be his prime, and with the way he plays he will be effective until he is an old man if he so chooses.
It's very tough to predict what the team looks like in 5 yrs.
IMO, Tim will sign for far less money when his contract is up and accomodate a reasonably big-name free agent then.
I agree....and as someone who was around for the post-Gervin, pre-Robinson era..I have learned to savor and enjoy every minute of current Spurs success.With the F.O the Spurs organization have, I think we will be back sooner than most think...at least I hope. Thats why we all should really appreciate the feeling of being a Spurs fan now.
Amen.
As for what the Spurs should do in that time, the answer is simple: stock up on red chameleons.
Problem is, the Spurs' top 3 players are 29, 28 and 23 years old. A Bulls-like decline after some veteran role players retire is not in the works.
At some point this team is going to be led by TP and TD is going to be the elder statesman big, ala Kareem with the Lakers.
As a former Knick fan transplanted to SA the year Robinson was drafted and having switched alllegiance then, ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS. The odds that the franchise, particualrly given it's a small market, will enjoy this kind of success again in the foreseeable future are slim. Also add to key players aging the fact that Pop is going to be in his early 60s when the merry go round stops and he well could decide to move on in one way or another.
There's a circle of life in the NBA. I think the Spurs eventual decline won't be a meteoric drop like the post MJ Bulls, but something along the line of the Kings. The current success is the result of a lot of the right pieces coming together and they won't all disapear when Timmy retires. But why dwell on that? There's a brand new season just around the corner! Woohoo!
That's 5 years from now.
There's still lots of time. And to top it all off the Spurs still have Ginobili who's a really great player who can only improve over the years.
Plus as everyone has said, that's five years or more from now... We live in the present so enjoy it
By continuing to develop players overseas, such as Ian Mahinmi, that can come over in three or four years and the great front office moves made for shorter term contracts and usuable vets whose goal is team oriented rather than minutes/money oriented, I think the Spurs organization knows what they are doing. I think they've already begun to put elements in place to mature for the rebuilding era. I don't expect a rapid dropoff like the Bulls, but perhaps a few postseason disappointing finishes while we bring in the stars of that era.
The success of the Spurs organization is completely revolved around the fortunate drafting of Tim Duncan and the ability of the front office to keep him in San Antonio. While Buford has done a great job putting pieces around Tim, their continued success is too dependent on having Tim Duncan. Also, while Manu Ginobili is phenomenal, he is only one year younger than Tim Duncan, 28 and 29 years old, respectively. With the way Manu takes a beating by sacrificing his body, he may not be around much long after Tim decides to retire.
I agree with the sentiment that Tim Duncan may be one of those athletes that retires earlier than most stars. Duncan has already won multiple championships and MVPs, and has done pretty much all he could have done in his seven years in the league. I can foresee Tim retiring before his best days are done, akin to Barry Sanders.
Whether or not that does happen, whenever Tim decides to call it quits, the Spurs organization will decline, although as already stated, it shouldn't be like the post-Jordan Bulls. I can see a strong team centered around Manu, but like I said, Manu isn't all that much younger than Duncan. I don't see a championship caliber team with Tony Parker as its driving force. He could prove me wrong, but I don't see that. So, the Spurs may need to get some more luck in the draft or via trade or free agency to acquire the next building block for their future. Perhaps they already have the guy in that Mahinmi player or Luis Scola or Javotkas (sp?). But, young Euros are still a crapshoot in terms of reaching their potential.
I think the Spurs still have a good 4-5 year run at contending for championships with Tim, Manu, and Parker. After that, who really knows? It depends greatly on what young players they end up bringing to the team over the next few years and how they end up developing. Sometimes development is coaching. Sometimes, it's really up to the player if he can reach his potential.
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