Clemens, Game 1

[Spurminator]

What do you guys think about this? I always assumed Pet te would get the Game 1 start no matter what, since he would have enough rest between Monday and Saturday regardless of the length of the NLCS.

Right now I think Andy is pitching a little better, so I'm inclined to want him to pitch Game 1. Of course, it may not matter since (if the Series goes seven) he, Roger and Oswalt would likely pitch two games a piece anyway. It's not really a situation where you have one ace that needs to pitch games 1, 4 and 7.

[Marcus Bryant]

Hmmm...Clemens is well rested. Perhaps too rested.

Still, you hit them with Clemens first to go after that first win. Maybe it doesn't matter but I think getting a Game 1 win on the road is quite valuable (beyond it being a win). It puts the Sox on their heels. Game 2? You almost want to go with Oswalt there since he's nails and put yourself in the best spot to at least get a split in the 1st 2 games in Chicago. Then at home you go with Pet te, Backe and Clemens again, with Oswalt there to start for you in Game 6 on the road. That would leave you with Pet te as the potential Game 7 starter. I guess Clemens could start Game 4 and Backe take Game 5 instead so that Clemens would start in a Game 7.

[ducks]

I think it will not matter sox will win it all

[Horry For 3!]

Game 1: Clemens
Game 2: Pet te
Game 3: Oswalt
Game 4: Backe
Game 5: Clemens
Game 6: Pet te
Game 7: Oswalt

[Spurminator]

Now that I think about it... Oswalt in Game 7 is friggin sweet.

[Horry For 3!]

Now that I think about it... Oswalt in Game 7 is friggin sweet.

Yes, he has been the best of the big 3.

[Marcus Bryant]

Now that I think about it... Oswalt in Game 7 is friggin sweet.

Why not go with Oswalt for 3 games in the series? Anyone see a way that could be feasible?

Gm 1 Sat Oct. 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Sun Oct. 23 Oswalt
Gm 3 Tue Oct. 25 Pet te
Gm 4 Wed Oct. 26 Clemens
Gm 5 Thu Oct. 27 Oswalt
Gm 6 Sat Oct. 29 Pet te
Gm 7 Sun Oct. 30 Oswalt

?

[Spurminator]

Well, for one thing, he'd have to pitch on two days' rest on Saturday. And if you went Oswalt-Clemens-Pet te-Oswalt-Clemens-Pet e-Oswalt, every pitcher would be going on three days rest max the second time around.

[Spurminator]

Gm 1 Sat Oct. 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Sun Oct. 23 Oswalt
Gm 3 Tue Oct. 25 Pet te
Gm 4 Wed Oct. 26 Clemens
Gm 5 Thu Oct. 27 Oswalt
Gm 6 Sat Oct. 29 Pet te
Gm 7 Sun Oct. 30 Oswalt

That's back to back 3-days-rest games for Oswalt followed by only 2 days' rest if G7 is necessary. That would be unheard of.

Plus Pet te's second start is on three days' rest.

[Marcus Bryant]

Hmmm...Oswalt would have 4 full days between last night and a Game 2 start. But yeah, it's cutting it close on the back end.

I guess you have to start Backe at some point. One of the home games, I would guess.

[Spurminator]

I may be wrong, but I think the 3-days'-rest standard applies to days *between* game days. So Oswalt would have today, tomorrow, and Saturday off. I think that's how they usually count them.

[Marcus Bryant]

Oops. For some strange reason I thought this was Wednesday. Too much celebrating last night.

[ShoogarBear]

Back in the days of four-man rotations, it used to be the standard for your workhorse pitcher to pitch three games in the Series.

Mickey Lolich of the Tigers in the 68 series was the last to win 3 games, I think.

[Spurminator]

Yeah, but when you have three workhorses at your disposal, I'd rather pitch all of them on full rest. Oswalt isn't enough of an upgrade over Pet te and Clemens to risk tiring him out... Plus, you'd have to pitch those two on shorter rest as well, unless you still worked Backe into the rotation at the expense of one of their games.

[TexasAggie2005]

I think a lot of it's variable. If you're down 2-1 or 3-0, you can't really afford to hand the ball to Backe. If Clemens throws fewer pitches in game 1, it'll be more likely we can bring him back for game 4. You can't lose a World Series because you're scared of pitching a guy on three days rest. There's no next week to save him for. But like I said, it depends. If we're up 3-0, Backe definitely pitches game 4. He probably pitches even if we're only up 2-1.

[Spurminator]

If Clemens throws fewer pitches in game 1, it'll be more likely we can bring him back for game 4.

True, but then the question becomes Who do we trust more to be able to perform on 3 days' rest? Pet te or Clemens?

[Marcus Bryant]

Upon contemplation, you go...

Game 1 Clemens
Game 2 Pet te
Game 3 Oswalt

That way, if the 'stros come back to Houston down 0-2 or 1-1 you have Oswalt to give you your best shot at getting back in the series or taking the lead. If you're somehow up 2-0 then you have Oswalt to give you a shot at taking a commanding lead in the series.

Then you can come back with Clemens in Game 4 if need be (if it's 1-2 or 0-3). If you're up 3-0 or 2-1 then you can go with Backe.

To talk myself out of an idea in mid-post, if you are up 3-0 maybe you go with Clemens in Game 4 to close out the series.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Oswalt impressed me last game. Pet te has been unimpressive.

Definitely start out with Clemens.

[Marcus Bryant]

Backe did have a great last start. Man, I don't know. Do you give the Sox a night off from facing one of the Big 3?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Stick with the guys that got you to the top.
Whoever that was.

[Spurminator]

Some numbers for the Big Three pitching in the postseason on 3 days' rest....

In the past four years, Clemens and Pet te have each done this one time. Clemens was last year, and he gave up 4 ER and 6 hits in 6.0 innings.

Andy Pet te pitched on 3 days' rest in the World Series against the Marlins and logged 9.2 innings of shutout baseball.

Roy started Game 5 of the Braves series last year on 3 days' rest and gave up 2 runs, 7 hits and 3 walks in 5.0 innings. He also pitched in relief in game 7 of the Cardinals series on 3 days' rest, giving up a run and 3 hits in 2.0 innings of work.

Not a large sample for any player, but that Pet te performance was pretty amazing.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I sure would like to see Andy tear it up in the WS.
That would own.

[ShoogarBear]

The Stros really have a decided advantage in WS experience with Pet e and Clemens. Hernandez and Contreras don't match them. Will that matter? I dunno.

[Spurminator]

He's been inconsistent in his career in the World Series, so we'll see which Andy Pet te shows up...

(Year: GS, Recond, ERA, WHIP)
1996: 2, 1-1, 5.91, 1.41
1998: 1, 1-0, 0.00, 1.09
1999: 1, 0-0, 12.27, 3.00
2000: 2, 0-0, 1.98, 1.46
2001: 2, 0-2, 10.00, 1.56
2003: 2, 1-1, 0.57, 1.02
Total: 10, 3-4, 3.90, 1.40

[Marcus Bryant]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...v=ap&type=lgns

Astros have perfect setup for first World Series

By STEPHEN HAWKINS, AP Sports Writer
October 20, 2005

ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Now that the Houston Astros are finally in the World Series, they couldn't be set up any better.

Their stellar rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pet te and Roy Oswalt is lined up to start the first three games against the White Sox on full rest. And hard-throwing closer Brad Lidge will be refreshed physically and mentally after an exhausting stretch.

Clemens (3-0, 1.90 ERA in seven World Series starts) will make his 33rd career postseason start Saturday, at least for a day matching Pet te (3-4, 3.90 in 10 World Series starts) for the most ever. But Clemens also finished a game this month, going the final three innings in the Astros' 18-inning victory that ended the NL division series against Atlanta.

Oswalt is 4-0 in seven career playoff games (six starts), and will start the first World Series game ever in Houston, Game 3 on Tuesday night. Brandon Backe, without a decision in his three starts this postseason, is scheduled for Game 4, then Clemens, Pet te and Oswalt would go again, if necessary.

Gm 1 Oct 22 Clemens
Gm 2 Oct 23 Pet te
Gm 3 Oct 25 Oswalt
Gm 4 Oct 26 Backe
Gm 5 Oct 27 Clemens
Gm 6 Oct 29 Pet te
Gm 7 Oct 30 Oswalt

Not bad. At least a full 4 days' rest for each starter between starts.