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Kawhitter 0 minutes.
Hey guys, I am looking at your rotation next year and especially trying to figure out what our ceiling would be. And to me that depends mostly on two things; One, 3 point shooting, and two; our defense.
But before we get into that, I collected some data from basket-reference regarding the total amount of minutes our players played last year and then made a (probably wrong) guess for the number of minutes certain players will play next season.
There were 11 players that played over 1000 minutes last season; Tony, Davis, Gay, Manu, Bryn, DJ, Danny, Pau, Kyle, Patty, and LA (in reverse order). Then it was Brandon Paul with ~550 minutes.
From those; Tony, Danny, and Kyle are gone and I think/hope Manu will play no more 500 minutes next year. So, unless Pop decides to play 12 players, we have four spots open in our rotation. Now, 3 of those 4 spots will be occupied by DDR, Marco, and Jacob.
I will go over each player individually and give you my thoughts on how many minutes I would expect him to play and where does that leave us with the development of our young guys.
- LaMarcus Aldridge; Last year he played 2509 minutes and that was the highest he is ever played as a Spur. With the addition on DeMar, I expect him to go back to his usual 2300 or even 2200 minutes. Hopefully, he will be in shape during training camp and pick up where he left last season. I don't think his numbers will be the same, but he should be a more efficient scorer.
- DeMar DeRosan; Last year he played over 2700 minutes, and that was the lowest in the past five years, I believe. No wonder he gassed during playoffs. Pop will make sure he is healthy and ready to go for the playoffs. I expect him to be around 2300 minutes and put more energy on D. Interestingly enough his Defensive Win Share last season was 2.8, compared to Danny's 2.9. Not bad if you ask me. I think people will be surprised by his defense.
- Dejounte Murray; Last year he was 6th in minutes played, and now tied for 3rd, but I expect him to play pretty much the same amount of minutes; from 1743 to 1800. His defense will be better but he will get more time on the floor only if he starts making 3 point shots or somehow finds a way to be effective without the ball in his hands.
- Rudy Gay; I expect him (and hope) that he plays 1800 minutes. Last year he only played 1231, and that hurt the team. KD said Rudy was one the hardest players to play against. If fully healed and focused, he will be a force for us on both sides of the floor.
- Patty Mills; Paty will hopefully see a minute cut from 2107 to probably about 1500. Depending on how Derrick White performs, I guess. Less Patty means better defense and also with DDR on the team, he will be able to switch back to his natural position where he can a very effective scorer off the bench.
- Marco Belineli; I could be wrong here but my projection is also 1500 minutes. When he last played for us, he was a guy that could come off the bench and score for us and provide some energy. I am sure he can still do that and maybe more.
- Jakob Poeltl; I hope he takes all of Pau's minuted eventually but next season I have him at 1400. Hopefully, he learns from Pau and develops a reliable jump shot.
- Davis Bertans; Davis will see more minutes this year from 1086 that he played last season, I expect him to be around 1400 just like Jacob.
- Pau Gasol; Just like Patty I hope he plays less, much less. From 1812 to no more than 1300. Most fans don't know but he played with a shoulder injury the last third of the year. In restricted minutes he can be very effective. Especially against second-tier guys. Also, he can be a great mentor for Jakob.
That's nine players, which means that Lonnie, Derrick, Bryn, and Dante will compete for about 3000 minutes.
To me, it looks like that our Defense will be fine. Manu, Tony, Pau, and Patty were our worst defenders last season and two of them are gone and the other two will play significantly fewer minutes. And our offense looks better as well since we have better shooters playing more minutes.
So to summarize, I believe our ceiling is to be contenders. Not the favorites, but one of the top 5 teams in the league.
Kawhitter 0 minutes.
Lonnie will spend the year in Austin. Bryn will get more minutes as a Pop favorite, but Derrick may force his way into minutes. Bertans and Murray, have the biggest opportunity to take their games to the next level. You are right about Patty getting his minutes cut which may make him more effective when he is on the court. Pop will be very careful with LMA and DeRozan's minutes to keep them fresh.
Imo lamest name ever
You should be on a Raptors forum tbh.
Nah that’s PinoyMarauder
Nice post, thank you
Derrick White is someeone to watch also.......
Even though Poeltl is already an elite backup, he's probably more match-up dependant than rotation lock. It would be difficult enough to squeeze a 3rd C into the rotation, let alone one who can't shoot and where the projected top 4, in terms of minutes, provide as little 3-point shooting as DeRozan, Aldridge, Murray and Gay do.
Starters: Aldridge (32-34), Gay (26-28), Gasol (23-25), DeRozan (33-35), Murray (26-28)
Bench: Ginobili (18-20), Mills (20-22), Belinelli (20-22), Bertans (18-20), Cunningham/Poeltl (14-16)
- When any of the top 9 is injured/resting, White plays 18-20.
- Think the starters only play the first 6 minutes of the 1st and 3rd quarters together. Gay and Gasol could move in and out depending on fit and match-ups.
No chance they contend. Their range is 3-10 and ceiling is the 2nd round.
Becoming a big fan of yours. With you on Dante getting a bigger role than expected and Gasol continuing to start. Still not sure who our 15th player will be, though. Hopefully, a combo forward or another big.
Nice write-up!
You said our worst defenders were 'Manu, Tony, Pau, and Patty and two of them are gone.' TP is gone, but we don't know about Manu and I doubt he was our worst defender. I was just reading that Pau with LMA was a lot better than he was given credit for.
I think the starters you mentioned is probably right, but I think we are going to need 3 pt shooters out there with LMA and DD.
Is Pau in the rotation? Surely Poeltl would be the guy if you're going to play 2 bigs & also the backup 5 when Gay/Bertans are the 4. I think Pau would accept a $16 mil mentoring role.
Poetl is a liability.
Spurs not being able to get siakm or OG is just flat out embarrasing
As embarrassing as you telling your family you failed pharm school?
One question I have is will the Spurs go back to a faster pace of play? I know we have LMA, and his presence in the low block is needed. But, in 2012-14, the Spurs were one of the faster teams in terms of pace in the league. With Murray, White, Mills, Gay, DeRozan, Bertans, Cunningham, Poetlt, Forbes ... the Spurs can run! Get easy baskets off the rebound or turnover without letting the opposition set up their defense.
With our defense potentially being average, I think we will have to avoid half court defense as much as we can.
It's going to be where Pop can guide the team really. It's going to be up to him and his staff to identify the best way to go. When these guys are on they're on! When they over think its over! Hopefully they're on. At the end of the day it'll be about: 1 Defense, 2 Pace and 3 Timely Shooting.
Thanks good post I also don't think our defense will suffer that much.
I disagree.
The Spurs shall contend. Totally contend.
You got a receipt on that?
I think this is a good time to ask if you're describing or prescribing. I don't think it makes sense to project Gay as a starter, especially with Gasol. The roster just doesn't seem set up for that, with the lack of bigs, Pop's desire to make Gay the sixth man and the coach's general desire to run Mills/Murray. If he didn't think DeRozan could be an SF, I don't think he would have gone with Forbes and Walker. If you're prescribing, I get it, even though I disagree. Pop should have targeted a forward or two instead of Beli. I see little upside in running Mills instead of an SF who can shoot. However, I think that moment's gone, and SA needs to do what's best for them now, and that's not starting Gay with DeRozan, hurting the offense of both units. White/Ginobili/Beli/Gay/Poeltl has the potential to be the best bench the team has had in years. It's even better if they can slip Bertans in when Manu takes nights off. White Poeltl could be a great PnR team for years, and getting him shooters would be amazing. Then obviously Gay can be the fulcrum, especially when the team needs a bucket. He can also cut and finish, so it's not like having him off the ball would be a wasted possession.
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Cool, the goods, agree
Hmmmm
Down slightly from last year.
May it stay down.....may the Quitter never win the NBA le......
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