Inevitable 2018 Midterm Prediction Thread....

[Nbadan]

Probably won't see Chumpy in here because he never sticks his head out on like this....anyone wanna go first?

For reference, here's some history on the final aggregate congress poll values from the conservative-leaning realclearpolitics:

2018
Democrats +7.3%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html

2016
Democrats +0.6% (actual result Republicans +1.1%)
Pro-Democratic Bias: 1.7%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-5279.html

2014
Republicans +2.4% (actual result Republicans +5.7%)
Pro-Democratic Bias: 3.3%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-2170.html

2012
Republicans +0.2 (actual result Democrats +1.2%)
Pro-Republican Bias: 1.4%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-3525.html

2010
Republicans +9.4 (actual result Republicans 6.8%)
Pro-Republican Bias: 2.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-2171.html

2008
Democrats 9.0% (actual result Democrats 10.7%)
Pro-Republican Bias: 1.7%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-2173.html

Ill be making mine as the night progresses and I get more information....

[Nbadan]

Beware the political pendulum swing...

The harder the pendulum swings in one direction, the more energy the opposite force, or opposing party, gains. And its creeping motion can be identified by gains made in midterm elections. Trump has tossed the pendulum so far to the right that it’s taken out a few respectable figures in the process – Tillerson, Priebus, Cohn, McCabe, Comey, etc..

We may like to think that our country is made up of either conservatives or liberals, Democrats or Republicans. In reality, the majority of our nation is made up of people whose political preferences change with the direction of the wind – true “swing” voters. There is no greater example of this than the fact that a number of Trump voters in 2016 cast their ballots for Barack Obama in 2008...

Since Trump’s 2016 victory, Democrats have taken nearly 40 Republican-held positions in governors’ mansions, state capitols and the US Congress – most notably the surprise election of a liberal Democrat senator in deep red Alabama. The best single predictor of the overall result of a House election is “generic ballot” polling, which simply asks respondents to say which party’s Congressional candidates they plan to support. Since 1942, generic-ballot polls taken on the eve of the election account for fully 83% of what we see in our adjusted national vote figures. Current generic ballot polls have the Democrats ahead by a 7-9 point advantage.

However, for the Democrats winning the popular vote is not enough. Because of gerrymandering their structural disadvantage means they must receive many more votes than the Republicans to win a majority. In 2014, for example, the Democrats won a House seat for every 189,000 votes they received. The Republicans, by contrast, won a seat for every 162,000. In order to be favored to win the House the Democrats must win the two-party national popular vote by about 5 to 6 points. Given the current rate of voting on both sides, this means that the Democrats must win millions of more votes to win the majority.

My prediction...even with gerrymandered districts the political swing of the pendulum and generic balloting still favors Democrats to take the House.

House Prediction: Democrats control congress by 23 seats

Democrats 229 Republicans 206

* Momentum has everything to do in this election, so Democratic could take even more seats.

Senate Prediction: GOP gains a seat

Democrats 49 GOP 51

[CosmicCowboy]

23 seats in the house?

Probably more like 5-10

Just enough to stir up , but not enough to get anything done. A lot of hysterical investigations and symbolic votes that go nowhere.

I have seen the same in the House from both sides of the aisle in the past.

[AaronY]

Dems are going to win the house but lose several seats in the senate and will not be able to get control of the Senate back in 2020 either which might not be so horrible if some far left re like bernie or warren wins in 2020

[SnakeBoy]

Ill be making mine as the night progresses and I get more information....

You made us wait for you to predict the same thing everyone is predicting. The party in power will lose about the average number of seats the party in power always loses.

[boutons_deux]

this would have been a 100% sure fire prediction, in High Tech democracy-loving America

A dozen U.S. states see problems with voting machines: rights groups

Broken voting machines were reported in at least 12 states by noon (1700 GMT) on Tuesday,

according to an “election protection” coalition of more than 100 groups that set up a national hotline for reporting irregularities.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...litics+News%29

[boutons_deux]

Confusion Over Voter ID Requirement Contributes to Missouri Lines

Nov. 6, 2:06 p.m. EST

• 
  

A judge’s decision two weeks ago allows voters to show something other than a photo ID,

but not all poll workers have gotten the message.

https://www.propublica.org/article/c...i-lines#153045

Another racist slave state ing up voting.

[FrostKing]

Confusion Over Voter ID Requirement Contributes to Missouri Lines

Nov. 6, 2:06 p.m. EST

• 
  

A judge’s decision two weeks ago allows voters to show something other than a photo ID,

but not all poll workers have gotten the message.

https://www.propublica.org/article/c...i-lines#153045

Another racist slave state ing up voting.

Judges fault. No Photo ID? Might as well ignore names too.

[boutons_deux]

AZ Rupugs are reliable rat ers

WILL ARIZONA SENATE RACE BE DECIDED BY WHO DOES NOT GET TO VOTE?

Arizona is the 15th most difficult state to vote in.

An estimated 384,000 Arizona voters could be harmed by the state’s failure to update voter registrations in compliance with the National Voter Registration Act.

the Department of Transportation did not update voters’ registrations when they changed addresses.

voters who move can end up being purged from the rolls.

Maricopa County residents have been purged 1.1 million times since the 2008 election —

and it’s disproportionately affecting low-income and minority communities.

Republican-controlled state legislature banned the practice of delivering mail-in ballots for other people, also known as ballot harvesting.

For certain segments of Arizonans, the ban makes voting more difficult.

Activist groups, such as the Arizona Center of Empowerment, used to collect mail-in ballots from Latino voters to encourage minority participation, High Country News reported.

Now, such activism is a felony.

“It sent a message that

people who are out there doing what they can to get the vote out … are criminals.”

Voters don’t necessarily need a photo ID, but if they don’t have one, they need to bring two forms of non-photo ID that show both name and address.

Some Arizonans have received voting reminder postcards with one key problem: the Election Day date is wrong.

Dozens of polling places in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and the surrounding area, didn’t open in time for Arizona’s primary elections in August

Voters were unable to check in at the polls due to technology issues, a problem Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes said falls on a contractor hired by the county.

However, an audit of the election conducted in September found that much of the problem stemmed from poor planning by the county.

, many polling places were understaffed, and

poll workers were confused about what to tell voters.

voters should have been told to go to so-called voting centers, where anyone can vote regardless of their precinct.

What often happened, instead, was that voters were told to wait around, or were turned away. Thousands of voters were affected,

https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/11/06/wi...t-get-to-vote/

... how Repugs run the mythical American democracy.

[boutons_deux]

FL Repugs put a polling station inside a gated community where the community goons intimidated non-community residents trying to get in to vote

[Brazil]

You made us wait for you to predict the same thing everyone is predicting. The party in power will lose about the average number of seats the party in power always loses.

already in damage control mode?

[Nbadan]

already in damage control mode?

Haters gotta hate. Didn't see a Snakeboy prediction...

[Nbadan]

23 seats in the house?

Probably more like 5-10

Just enough to stir up , but not enough to get anything done. A lot of hysterical investigations and symbolic votes that go nowhere.

I have seen the same in the House from both sides of the aisle in the past.

Yep Lol

[CosmicCowboy]

Yep Lol

Yep, you were right on the house, wrong on the senate.

[johnsmith]

Dan has been running the same routine on this site for over a half dozen of these elections....he “goes out on a limb” and predicts the exact same the media is predicting and then gloats when he’s correct and disappears when he’s wrong.

He’s stated that he believes posting on spurs talk somehow makes a difference in the grand scheme of things and believes he’s somehow fighting the good fight. He’s a delusional clown that shouldn’t be allowed a public forum to express his opinions, which he has spoon fed to him by Rachel Maddow.

[Nbadan]

Spoon fed to him by Rachael Maddow LOL

Johnsmith is a clown. Notice how he and his bump buddy darrin didn't post a prediction even though "he could have predicted the same thing as the media"

no cahones....

[Nbadan]

Yep, you were right on the house, wrong on the senate.

Only about the exact number but I predicted correctly that the GOP would retain control.

[CosmicCowboy]

Only about the exact number but I predicted correctly that the GOP would retain control.

As I predicted blue team would win the house.

[Isitjustme?]

I didnt post itt because I predicted it would go nowhere and here we are

[RandomGuy]

23 seats in the house?

Probably more like 5-10

Just enough to stir up , but not enough to get anything done. A lot of hysterical investigations and symbolic votes that go nowhere.

I have seen the same in the House from both sides of the aisle in the past.

Dude, you are so wrapped up in your delusional bubble. I have been trying to tell you for years. smh


Real-time seat forecast
House
D+36
Average forecasted net seat change
6 PM ET
LATEST
Senate
R+2
Average forecasted net seat change

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ults-coverage/


Pretty much on the nose of what they predicted.

Using data. You know that thing that comes from reality? Not sure you are familiar.

[spurraider21]

Dude, you are so wrapped up in your delusional bubble. I have been trying to tell you for years. smh


Real-time seat forecast
House
D+36
Average forecasted net seat change
6 PM ET
LATEST
Senate
R+2
Average forecasted net seat change

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ults-coverage/


Pretty much on the nose of what they predicted.

Using data. You know that thing that comes from reality? Not sure you are familiar.

well he turned out to be wrong anyway, but he wasn't saying the dems would only gain 5-10 seats, but rather that their lead would only be 5-10 seats

[RandomGuy]

well he turned out to be wrong anyway, but he wasn't saying the dems would only gain 5-10 seats, but rather that their lead would only be 5-10 seats

I stand corrected.

A 36 seat swing means that the Dems have almost 30 more seats than the GOP (double checking that). Still wrong, and by a pretty good margin. Remember each flip adds two to the margin.

[CosmicCowboy]

well he turned out to be wrong anyway, but he wasn't saying the dems would only gain 5-10 seats, but rather that their lead would only be 5-10 seats

exactly

[RandomGuy]

exactly

Current:
Majority R(235)
Minority D(193)

+36 shift:

Majority D (229)
Minority R (199)


In reality world 30 is more than "5-10".

But hey, keep letting Goeb-, er Hannity tell you otherwise.

[CosmicCowboy]

Current:
Majority R(235)
Minority D(193)

+36 shift:

Majority D (229)
Minority R (199)


In reality world 30 is more than "5-10".

But hey, keep letting Goeb-, er Hannity tell you otherwise.

I don't watch Fox news and don't like Hannity.

But keep telling yourself I'm the boogieman if it makes you feel better about yourself.