Anointing A Champion

[Kori Ellis]

Anointing A Champion
By Andy Soucier (Brodels)
FullSportPress

http://www.fullsportpress.com/artman...cle_1561.shtml

With multiple scoring options and athletic, defensive-minded players, the 2004-05 Spurs team was clearly the most talented San Antonio club to grace the hardwood since the ABA was abolished. But even with loads of talent and experience, the Spurs needed a game seven comeback to reclaim the Larry O’Brien trophy last spring. The championship series against Detroit was much more difficult than anything faced by the Spurs in 1999 or 2003.

The Spurs, by all accounts, had a great summer. The acquisitions of Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel provide the team with veteran leadership and additional scoring punch. Euphoric from the high resulting from a third league championship, many fans handed the championship trophy to the 2005-06 club as soon as the ink dried on these two new players’ contracts. In addition, most experts predicted that the Spurs would make it to the Finals for a second straight time.

But winning back-to-back championships is difficult. Parity is at an all-time high in the NBA. Health, age, chemistry, and complacency can all spell disaster for a team trying to repeat. Spurs fans should be optimistic about the upcoming season, but there are very real obstacles facing the team as it attempts to repeat.

Health

Contending teams know that injuries are a primary obstacle to winning a le. And the Spurs, like every other NBA team, will cope with injuries throughout the season. Key injuries to stars and valuable role players can erase a team’s hopes of winning a championship quickly.

The Spurs remained relatively healthy during their championship campaigns. But in several other seasons, their championship hopes were dashed by injuries to key contributors like Duncan, Derek Anderson and David Robinson.

Tim Duncan’s inability to make it through regular seasons without missing significant time is a concern. He has missed 29 games over the past two seasons, and the weight of having to carry the franchise on both ends of the court makes it unlikely that he’ll make it through a season without missing games. Manu Ginobili’s reckless style of play is what makes him an upper-echelon player, but his all-out approach also makes him prone to injury. An injury to either of these players, especially late in the season or during the playoffs, would significantly hamper the team’s efforts to win another le.

Age

The Spurs aren’t an old team. Ginobili and Parker are entering their prime years, while Duncan’s size and fundamental approach to the game will allow him to remain effective for many more seasons. Though the core is relatively young, some of the most important role players on the team are old by NBA standards. Robert Horry’s body has a lot of mileage on it after 13 NBA seasons, six championships, and numerous deep postseason runs. Van Exel and Finley have lost a step in recent years. 34-year-old Bruce Bowen is still an elite defender, but will this be the season that his quick lateral movement begins to slip?

Age will undoubtedly affect all four of these players in upcoming seasons. And if it starts to happen this year, the Spurs will suffer. The influence of age on Horry and Bowen could be particularly significant because nobody else on the team is capable of filling their roles with the same level of effectiveness.

Will age catch up with the Spurs’ role players this season? Only time will tell.

Chemistry

The Spurs have been so successful over the past several years in part because they have had many ‘chemistry guys’ in the locker room. Guys like Duncan, Robinson, Avery Johnson, Malik Rose, and Jerome Kersey exhibited leadership on the court while maintaining a strong presence in the locker room. Popovich is the ultimate chemistry coach because he relates well with young players and is unquestionably in charge of the team.

The potential for chemistry problems exists whenever new players are signed. While the talent of Van Exel and Finley make the Spurs better on paper, it’s unknown how their presence will influence team chemistry. Neither player has a reputation of being a troublemaker, but Finley is accustomed to playing a lot of minutes and Van Exel is fiery and has a strong presence. In addition, the arrival of Argentinean bigman Fabricio Oberto and the loss of a very popular Rose will change the interpersonal dynamics on the team both on the court and in the locker room.

Will there be chemistry problems? It’s not likely as long as Popovich is in charge, but the Spurs have never started a season with so much talent. And with at least eight players capable of playing big minutes, several of them will have to accept lesser roles.

Inconsistency

When Tony Parker plays well, the Spurs usually win. When he doesn’t play well, the Spurs often struggle. Parker has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s also been plagued by inconsistency over the course of his short career. He’s improved each year he’s been in the league, but in big playoff games Parker isn’t always a difference maker.

With opposing defenses focused on Duncan and Ginobili, Parker’s play will dictate how the team performs. Opponents will make Parker beat them more than even before. If Parker can avoid scoring droughts, limit turnovers, and continue to improve his ability to get his teammates involved, the Spurs should score plenty of points. But if Parker doesn’t take the next step in his progression, the team’s ability to deal with injuries and cope with good defenses will be limited.

The Spurs are in a great position to repeat as champions, but the rigors and length of an NBA season will present many challenges. The favorites going into the last three NBA seasons haven’t won the le.

Will the Spurs repeat? If the team can remain relatively healthy, age doesn’t catch up with Bowen and Horry, chemistry problems are minimal, and Parker becomes more consistent, it’s likely that the Spurs will be crowned Champions again in June. But if one of those things doesn’t happen, other teams will be salivating at the opportunity to knock off the champions.

Let the season begin.

[BigVee]

Very nice analysis. I worry about all the hype regarding the great new players. Probably because of living in SoCal, when Payton and Malone joined the Lakers all you heard on the radio was about how great that team would be, i.e would they break the win record, etc. We all know what happened to that team. That is not to say that will happen to the Spurs, but they definitely have a target on their back. Every team is going to play their very best game against the Spurs all year long. I look for them to have a good but not great regular season and then really turn it on when they get into playoff series with consecutive games against the same team. It is one thing to get sky high for a particular game during the year, but over the course of a series I can't see anyone beating this team.

[Brodels]

I hope you're right.

It's hard to win an NBA championship. It makes what the Spurs have done over the past few years to seem quite impressive. The Lakers and Bulls had runs that were even more phenomenal.

There is a lot of luck involved and so many other factors that go beyond just talent and coaching.

If the Spurs are healthy, I think they'll be fine. But if they lose Duncan, Manu, or Parker later in the season or in the playoffs, they'll be in trouble. That's the way it is with every team.

I also wonder about Horry and Bowen. I guess I'm not worried, but I realize that time will catch up with both of them eventually. And I can't imagine that the Spurs would have won last year without both of those two. Hardworking, clutch veterans are difficult to replace.

[whottt]

Pretty good analysis but I think age is more of a factor for Bowen than Horry...Horry will get his rest and it won't be a problem. Besides, while Horry is under-rated athletically...his game is based much more on smarts than physicality...Horry can keep on being Horry for a few more years IMO. Bowen OTOH...doesn't get rest and he has the most physically demanding job on the team(if not the NBA), and Bruce has already far exceeded my expectations, and the average players ability, to stay effective in this role, well beyond his physical peak.

I also disagree on one other point...the lumping of Parker and Manu together as, "in their primes"...

Manu is in his prime at the age of 28...the usual age given for an athletic prime...

Parker plays the hardest(or second hardest) position in the NBA to master and is only 23 years old...IMO, he's still 2 years away, minimum, from his best years....unfair expectations of Spursfans, or not.

[sanman53]

Yeah, I agree with this stuff, but my opinion is this: When was the last time we Spurs fans were able to even talk about breaking a regular season team win record? Let's have some fun talking about it. I get so pumped when I read all you guys talking about winning 65+ games this year. Sure, injuries happen, but so can winning 65+ games! And I know this guy was wanting fans to face reality, which there is nothing wrong with that, but it is not going to stop me from thinking about a wonderful season and better than that, a repeat!

GO SPURS GO!