With about five weeks and 18 games left on the slate, the Spurs once again find themselves in the unenviable position of scrapping for a playoff spot.
For more than two decades, the Spurs being in the playoffs was synonymous with death and taxes. Those days seem like a distant memory now, and Tim Duncan ain't walkin' through that door anymore.
Similar to last season, there are around eight teams bunched together in the middle of the Western Conference standings and setting the stage for a Battle Royale over the last four playoff spots. Mathematically, the only team that has been eliminated from playoff contention is the Phoenix Suns ().
Last year, the Spurs did not clinch a playoff berth until April 9th (or their 81st game of the season)...and this year does not look to be shaping up much different. Technically, the Spurs only control their destiny against six teams, but with the way this season has gone, it's safe to say that they are going to need all the help they can get.
At this juncture, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a Silver & Black-less playoffs for the first time in 22 years.
Without further ado, I present...the Spurs 2018-2019 Magic Numbers:
Some thoughts:
-Technically, the Spurs are still not out of reach of the #1 seed...but that's about as likely as Manu's hair growing back. They just need the Warriors and Nuggets to both go on 19-game losing streaks while the Spurs play .800 basketball.
-Currently, only 4.5 games separate 3rd-8th place in the Western Conference, so you'd need a Magic 8-Ball to try to determine positioning at this point.
-Realistically, there will probably only be four teams in the dog-fight for 6th-8th place: the Spurs, Jazz, Clippers, and Kings. Only five games currently separate these teams in the standings, and I anticipate a lot of flip-flopping in position over the next five weeks. The Kings are currently only three games back from stealing a playoff spot.
-On the dark-horse list, you have the Lakers, Timberwolves, Mavericks, and Pelicans. The Lakers are still right on the heels of Sacramento and only nine games currently separate 6th place from 14th, so all of these teams are still theoretically in the hunt. However, they all currently sit just a little too far out to be considered to be looking directly in.
-Fortunately for the Spurs, several teams in the hunt have all stumbled in recent weeks. Lebron's Lakers are 4-9 since he tried to trade half the team to New Orleans (and 1-4 since he declared he had "activated playoff mode"). Meanwhile, the Kings (4-6), Timberwolves (4-6), Mavericks (3-7), and Grizzlies (3-7) have all hit mini-skids of their own over their last 10.
-Unfortunately for the Spurs, they also decided to take a bath in the crapper during the Rodeo Road Trip and are only 3-7 over that same period. The only way they could've stunk things up worse was if they had just stayed in the stables at the AT&T Center. Had the Spurs won half their games during their yearly voyage, they would be sitting comfortably in 4th or 5th place right now.
-If the Spurs really hope to punch their ticket to the big dance again, they need to go at least 10-8 in this home stretch...and that would still require considerable help from the rest of the pack. If they stumble and hit another 3-4 game losing skid, that could easily let in one of the dark horse teams and spell doom for their hopes of continuing their historic playoff streak.
This week in review:
March 4th - DEN @ SAS - The Spurs thankfully seem to have regained some footing back in the sanctuary of the AT&T Center, and are coming off an impressive showing against a PG-less Thunder team. If you had asked me a week ago, I'd say splitting the pair between OKC and DEN could be considered a moral victory, but frankly...we need actual Ws wherever we can get them. A win would count for two Magic Numbers against the Nuggets, but considering how far ahead they are in the standings, this one is mostly just about avoiding a loss.
March 6th - SAS @ ATL - The fledgling Hawks have actually picked up some momentum as of late and seem keen on playing the part of late-season spoiler. Still, at 20 games under .500, there is no excuse to lose to this lottery team. These are the "easy" victories that the Spurs desperately have to secure if they want to stay in the race, and they will need to show that they can come to play on the road to do so.
March 10th - MIL @ SAS - The Spurs actually played the Bucks pretty tough during their last contest in Milwaukee. In fact, they held a 10-point lead and had a whopping 91.0% probability to win with 7 minutes left despite a big night from Giannis. Sadly, that's when the train went off the rails. Hopefully they can put the same level of tenacity on display, and the energy of the home crowd will be able to get them over the hump this time.
Last edited by Dex; 03-04-2019 at 07:42 PM.
For reference, a green TieBreaker means that the Spurs have already won the tiebreaker. A red TieBreaker means that the Spurs have already lost the tiebreaker. Unmarked TieBreakers mean it is still to be determined.
A green Magic Number means the Spurs have secured that magic number.
Thanks man, I appreciate the work you put into this
I rather not make the playoffs than lose 3 years in a row to the goty warriors tbh
Great work Dex, with 18 games remaining I think we are in a much better position than last season as we more games at home and we are better there somewhere around 3rd in the league and playing 8 teams below.500, so we should be in the playoffs around the 6-8 spot maybe it's better to play Denver or okc the matchups would be better.
It's all about strength of schedule. So Spurs have a pretty good chance and the Jazz are pretty much a lock and can probably even get home court.
and they won’t just be losses, they’ll be blowouts...
It's a race between Pop and Doc on who wants to get eliminated by Denver more. The Clips are poised for two max contracts in the summer plus their promising rookie Gilgeous-Alexander; making the postseason seems only a bonus in terms of extended visibility that a free agent could take notice. Meanwhile, y'all know where the Spurs are with their aging all-star (familiar story), an irritable co-star and a dearth of serviceable wings struggling for pride of place to get out of the Warriors' bracket.
so far so good!
i don't know who i'd rather win, lakers or clippers?
i hope we do make it but play nuggets. if not, well then it would be the warriors and yeah we aint winning nothing there.
It sucks that we are in the playoff race for the 7th or 8th seed. Too bad the Lakers suck balls and are the joke of the NBA.
We need a 6 or 7 game winning streak because the clippers ain’t loosing too
apura should avoid the 8th spot
Coming back ApuraTalk, they agree there.
Great thread!
I think as long as we can stay healthy we will make it. Not sure what seed but well be in the playoffs.
I've said this for a while but I think the Spurs have a good chance of beating Denver in the 2-7 series. Not like they are world beater's.
Maybe we can injure some of their stars
best case scenario is Spurs get the 7th seed and play the Nuggets. Then get OKC in the 2nd round if they make it. That would be 2 winnable series where Aldridge can go off
Spurs are one up in loss column on Clippers in conference record. That could determine the 7-8 seed. Have to make up 3 games on the Jazz because of no H2H tiebreaker, so 6 seed will be tough.
Lost tiebreak to Kings too, so will need to keep an eye on them. They have some easy games coming up (Bos, @NY, @Was, @Bos, @Phi, Chi, Brk, Dal, Phx, @LAL, @Dal, @NO, @Hou, @SA, Hou, Cle, @Uta, NO, @Por).
That game against the Spurs is a BTB for them so Pop better be circling that as a must win.
...
The Lakers need the Spurs to lose 6 more games than them the rest of the way to pass them, while they themselves have:
- Denver & Boston at home
- Five on the road including Toronto and Milwaukee (plus three they have to win in NY, Detroit on the 2NBTB & Chicago)
- Brooklyn, Sacramento, & Washington at home
- Utah on the road on the 2NBTB
- Charlotte at home (could make playoffs, though could be out by then)
- New Orleans on road ... how fitting would it be for them to keep Lebron out of playoffs
- Thunder on road
- Warriors at home
- Clippers technically a road game
- Utah and Portland to finish year out at home
Only four games against non-contending teams (NY, Chi, Was, NO) the rest are either tough or against teams fighting for playoffs.
The Spurs won’t lose 6 more based on that schedule. I think their best case is an 8 seed, and they HAVE to win that Clippers game or else they’ll lose that tiebreaker too and have to make up 7 games on them.
The Kings can’t outright win tiebreaker over Lakers and based on crappy conference record will probably lose it.
Yesterday was mostly a win for San Antonio.
The Spurs won, giving them two up on Denver as well as giving them the lead in the H2H record.
Dallas, Utah, and the Lakers also lost. I would've rather seen losses by New Orleans and the Clippers in those respective contests since they are in our realm of the standings, but I guess we will take what we can get.
Tonight, the Spurs are guaranteed further help as Memphis plays Portland and the Thunder match up against the Timberwolves.
The Rockets also have a tough game against Toronto. As much as I hate rooting for Nephew, a few losses for Houston could really help us close the gap in the loss column.
I am sad to say that I am terrified of the Hawks in Atlanta. Spurs need to show up and get that W.
Trust me, we all feel that way. Everyone needs to play and no looking past them. This is a must win for this team.
Having White there makes me a feel a little better but still, this team just has the weirdest tendency to take a "bad" team lightly but the get blown out by them.
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