Projected Team Salary Combined Thread

[bluebellmaniac]

Someone had to do this thread, so might as well get it started.

These numbers are dirty (my estimated parts at least), so take with a BIG grain of salt. Hopefully we can get the pros in here to clean up and give their estimates.

Next couple years aren't so bad, but we won't want DMDR's contract on the books come 23-24. If it is, it'd be train wreck on the rest of the roster.

			3% increase	3% increase	3% increase
	Cap Maximum:	$112,414,200	$115,786,626	$119,260,225	$122,838,032
	Lux Tax Thresh	$136,605,810	$140,703,984	$144,925,104	$149,272,857
		21-22	22-23	23-24	24-25
1	Derrick White	$15,678,571	$16,892,857	$18,107,143	$19,321,429
2	Dejounte Murray	$15,428,880	$16,571,120	$17,714,000	$0
3	Jakob Poeltl	$8,750,000	$9,398,148	$0	$0
4	Lonnie Walker	$4,453,617	$6,319,683	$0	$0
5	Devin Vassell	$4,235,160	$4,437,000	$5,887,899	$8,060,534
6	Luka Samanic	$2,959,080	$4,556,983	$6,498,258	$0
7	Keldon Johnson	$2,145,720	$3,873,024	$5,809,536	$0
8	Drew Eubanks	$1,762,796	$1,910,860	$0	$0
9	Tre Jones	$1,517,981	$1,782,621	$0	$0
	DMC (Dead $)	$1,242,340	$0	$0	$0
10	Trey Lyles	$5,500,000	$5,775,000	$6,063,750
11	Patty Mills	$5,500,000	$5,500,000	$5,500,000
12	DeMar DeRozan	$27,500,000	$28,875,000	$30,318,750	$31,834,688
13	FA - TBD	$10,242,750	$10,730,500	$11,218,250
14	1st Rd Pick 20th	$2,216,300	$2,327,100	$2,437,900	$3,754,366
15	2nd Rd Pick	$950,000	$1,500,000
2-Way	Nate Renfro
2-Way	Keita Bates-Diop
	Totals:	$110,083,195	$120,449,896	$109,555,486	$62,971,017
	Salary Room:
	*All data from HoopsHype.com except where noted
	Red = Team Option			Purple = Mid-Level Exception (from HoopsRumors.com)
	Green = Qualifying Offer			Blue = My Estimate
	Point guard:	Combo guard:	Wing:
	Dejounte Murray	Derrick White	Devin Vassell
	Tre Jones	Patty Mills
		Lonnie Walker
	Big Wing (or Playmaking Big Forward):	Athletic Forward:	Stretch Big:
	DeMar DeRozan	Nate Renfro (2-way)	Luka Samanic
	Keldon Johnson		Trey Lyles
	Keita Bates-Diop (2-Way)
	Anchor Big:
	Jakob Poeltl
	Drew Eubanks

[Dejounte]

I made a similar thread a while back:

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=288583

Nonetheless, I love when other people put in some thought and research into this kind of stuff. Signs of a passionate fan! Good job.

I came to the same conclusion as you that signing a max player isn't ideal this summer, but instead of using DeMar I used John Collins. However, my premise relied on the possibility that Lonnie might blow up and require a chunk of the cap, too.

IMO, a lot of signs point to DeMar not coming back.

[BillMc]

Nice breakdown OP. Thanks.

[PrimeMinister]

I see the spurs FO wanting to keep derozan without making a long term commitment. They’ll offer up some gesture of good will like a 2 year deal for good money, it’s 50/50 at that point if some team gets ambitious and offers him a 4 year max or more long term money. With the timeline of our team it makes 0 sense to keep him at that type of salary beyond 2023.

All eyes for the FO need to be on the 23 FA class and planning offers to our impending free agents and youngsters accordingly. Huge class of free agents and our last real chance to pay them before RFA for Keldon, Vassell, etc... Derozan realistically isn’t a contributor to our next le- we need to get the books open to sign the person who will be. Even if we strike out on Jokic or Embiid, someone like Jerami Grant or Christian Wood could be nice pickups depending on how their games look in 2 years.

[cjw]

If you’re Demar, do you bank on yourself aging gracefully like CP3 has (though contract looked bad a few years ago)? If so, may make sense to sign 2+PO, and then can hit the market for one final payday.

I don’t want to sign him for 4 years, but not sure if there is anyone better on the market. Or you use space to absorb contracts that bring back assets, potentially pairing LWIV in a trade that lets you move towards top of draft.

Said another way, I may prefer to keep Demar and move out Walker, who you know you will have to pay with Luka/KJ a year behind him. And by improving draft position you essentially reset clock on cost of that roster piece.

[cd021]

If you’re Demar, do you bank on yourself aging gracefully like CP3 has (though contract looked bad a few years ago)? If so, may make sense to sign 2+PO, and then can hit the market for one final payday.

I don’t want to sign him for 4 years, but not sure if there is anyone better on the market. Or you use space to absorb contracts that bring back assets, potentially pairing LWIV in a trade that lets you move towards top of draft.

Said another way, I may prefer to keep Demar and move out Walker, who you know you will have to pay with Luka/KJ a year behind him. And by improving draft position you essentially reset clock on cost of that roster piece.

Locking up DeMar does bring up issues down the road with Walker, Johnson, and Luka. Walker is probably unlikely to get retained at this point but should he blow up, then the Spurs may either have to let him walk in RFA or bite the bullet and pay him. Then Johnson and Luka are up in 2023. Keldon seems likely to get paid while Luka is anyone's guess. Keeping DeMar on a two year might work but definitely not longer.

A 2 plus one isn't a terrible idea, but if he's not any good then he's certain to opt-in and the Spurs could be deep in the tax.

[PrimeMinister]

Locking up DeMar does bring up issues down the road with Walker, Johnson, and Luka. Walker is probably unlikely to get retained at this point but should he blow up, then the Spurs may either have to let him walk in RFA or bite the bullet and pay him. Then Johnson and Luka are up in 2023. Keldon seems likely to get paid while Luka is anyone's guess. Keeping DeMar on a two year might work but definitely not longer.

A 2 plus one isn't a terrible idea, but if he's not any good then he's certain to opt-in and the Spurs could be deep in the tax.

I say either a straight up 2 year deal or a 1+1 with a PO which he might be very open to as it allows him to determine his own fate the summer after next depending on his performance in 2022 with some new potential suitors to sign him. I could also see him having a bit of an “unfinished business” type at ude with this team if they put together a nice performance in the first round or even second. That would make the idea of a quick re-up appetizing to both sides.

there’s options. But tying up long term money to Demar ain’t it.

[bluebellmaniac]

I made a similar thread a while back:

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=288583

Nonetheless, I love when other people put in some thought and research into this kind of stuff. Signs of a passionate fan! Good job.

I came to the same conclusion as you that signing a max player isn't ideal this summer, but instead of using DeMar I used John Collins. However, my premise relied on the possibility that Lonnie might blow up and require a chunk of the cap, too.

IMO, a lot of signs point to DeMar not coming back.

Great stuff there, that was the inspiration. Nice to have a thread like that to better understand the why's of what the front office does. Without that understanding, people think it's all about just signing people up. It's not. You have to plan these out, which is hard as .

A nice problem to have is when lots of your picks pan out and they blossom so much, you have trouble fitting them all under the tax. But a problem nonetheless.

[Dejounte]

Signing DeMar to a two year deal seems more and more like a plausible option.

That's especially when you consider the only other free agent arguably worth maxing in the market is John Collins, and even his production can easily be matched or exceeded by other cheaper players. No reason to lock ourselves in to a player like that. Worse yet, the Spurs would probably double down on John when his contract ends even if he has not improved much as a player. That's 6+ years of being stuck with a player barely worth his contract.

Whereas when you have DeMar, you know what you have and it's possible he will take a step back with him decreasing his minutes and reducing his role, while his veteran leadership will increase as time goes on.

High
DeMar
Dejounte
Derrick
Poeltl
Keldon

Medium
Vassell
Luka

Low
Dinos
Tre
KBD

Extra bench players
Gay
Mills
Lyles
2021 first round pick (Herb Jones, JRE)

[bluebellmaniac]

Signing DeMar to a two year deal seems more and more like a plausible option.

That's especially when you consider the only other free agent arguably worth maxing in the market is John Collins, and even his production can easily be matched or exceeded by other cheaper players. No reason to lock ourselves in to a player like that. Worse yet, the Spurs would probably double down on John when his contract ends even if he has not improved much as a player. That's 6+ years of being stuck with a player barely worth his contract.

Whereas when you have DeMar, you know what you have and it's possible he will take a step back with him decreasing his minutes and reducing his role, while his veteran leadership will increase as time goes on.

High
DeMar
Dejounte
Derrick
Poeltl
Keldon

Medium
Vassell
Luka

Low
Dinos
Tre
KBD

Extra bench players
Gay
Mills
Lyles
2021 first round pick (Herb Jones, JRE)

1. What's the most we can offer on a two yr deal.
2. Why does DMDR go for that if a team is offering more years for more overall $$$.

You project that Gay is coming back? Walker gone?

[Dejounte]

1. What's the most we can offer on a two yr deal.
2. Why does DMDR go for that if a team is offering more years for more overall $$$.

You project that Gay is coming back? Walker gone?

Walker seems the odd man out if DeMar comes back. Minutes will be sparse and you have to give those minutes to more deserving players (Luka and Vassell) whose upside looks like they would impact the wins column more.

I don't know if DMDR will truly have suitors who would be willing to offer him a four year deal.

Not sure about Gay, just needed to name random free agents for the end of the bench since they won't really matter much in the rotation.

[BackHome]

Yeah at Derozz age I don’t think he will go with a two year contract at this point in his career. It’s hard to see what is going to happen with him does he walk/does he want to be traded/does he want to stay long term/do Spurs want him back?

As far as who else might go it’s definitely LMA I don’t see any scenario where he will be back with us. Then there is Rudy who I like he gives us good veteran leadership but if Lyles and Luka keep playing well do you keep him? As far as Mills again Veteran leadership my only thoughts for him is does he want to sign with us understanding his minutes are going to get much smaller or does he want more playing time and moves to a team that can accommodate him? After drafting Tre I just don’t see an avenue for Q. I hope he can attach himself to another team

[cjw]

Walker seems the odd man out if DeMar comes back. Minutes will be sparse and you have to give those minutes to more deserving players (Luka and Vassell) whose upside looks like they would impact the wins column more.

I don't know if DMDR will truly have suitors who would be willing to offer him a four year deal.

Not sure about Gay, just needed to name random free agents for the end of the bench since they won't really matter much in the rotation.

Spurs need to be careful on how they allocate the $50mm in space, as there are 2-3 young guys about to be paid in the next 27 months.

Best for future is probably to try to swing for fences by acquiring assets to rent out cap space (no more than two year contracts), and then package picks plus Walker to move towards top of draft if there is a guy they have a can’t miss grade on. The roster is already deep, and they don’t need to clog it with redundant vets.

If nothing materializes, I’m fine running it back with current guys with short term extensions. Don’t know there’s a gettable guy in free agency that moves the needle.

[FutureMan]

Do we have the full MLE because I thought we used part of it on Jones?

Ideally the Spurs sign Markkanen or Collins and resign DeRozan and Mills to two year deals.

[bluebellmaniac]

A max or near max deal with Collins produces the same train wreck in year 3. If we want to keep the solid core, then no max. If not, who do you give up (choose 2): Poeltl, Luka, Keldon.

[FutureMan]

A max or near max deal with Collins produces the same train wreck in year 3. If we want to keep the solid core, then no max. If not, who do you give up (choose 2): Poeltl, Luka, Keldon.

So then deal with it in three years. The Spurs shouldn’t be passing up on players that want to sign now because maybe Poeltl might be a better version of Splitter, Luka could be 1/4 as good of a player as Ginobili, or Johnson 1/2 as good as Kawhi. They need to push every year since they don’t have a Duncan to build around.

Also it’s not a “train wreck”. You just be a great organization and figure it out or you’re not.

[bluebellmaniac]

So then deal with it in three years. The Spurs shouldn’t be passing up on players that want to sign now because maybe Poeltl might be a better version of Splitter, Luka could be 1/4 as good of a player as Ginobili, or Johnson 1/2 as good as Kawhi. They need to push every year since they don’t have a Duncan to build around.

Also it’s not a “train wreck”. You just be a great organization and figure it out or you’re not.

We are not Detroit, or Sacramento, or Philadelphia or any other City. This is San Antonio. We plan. We prepare. We develop players. Just signing players and then realizing later that it'll cost us a chunk of our core isn't wise. Saying we don't know what they'll be like in 3 yrs is not true. We have a pretty good idea, and we want them on the team when they are peaking.

Plan for what we want. Plan for what we need.

[Dejounte]

We are not Detroit, or Sacramento, or Philadelphia or any other City. This is San Antonio. We plan. We prepare. We develop players. Just signing players and then realizing later that it'll cost us a chunk of our core isn't wise. Saying we don't know what they'll be like in 3 yrs is not true. We have a pretty good idea, and we want them on the team when they are peaking.

Plan for what we want. Plan for what we need.

Right on. Reading that post is the equivalent of someone putting zero money in their 401k, buys all type of nonsense to get in major debt, and goes ahead and puts a down payment on a Tesla because it, we'll deal with the consequences later. Fast forward 20 years later and their kids hate them because they had to work three jobs and had zero time parenting their kids.

Sometimes I don't think people understand the team they root for. They'll say they've been watching the Spurs since David Robinson and have had courtside seats since whatever, then turnaround and say instant gratification that the Spurs have never been known for.

[Dejounte]

IMO, I'm getting the sense we're going to be getting an injection of international flavor this offseason. The Mitoglou interest came out of nowhere, and I think that the Spurs' scouts are aggressively looking at other international teams too for talent. The current team is missing a bit of that unique vision and passing that euro players usually have because they're taught basketball a different way, so bringing those fundamentals to this team would be a huge benefit. Not to mention it probably helps the locker room and players to broaden their view of the world and its different cultures.

I kind of think the Wizards are purposely seeking out international talent but they're kinda doing it excessively to the point where they're passing up better talent. I don't want the Spurs to overdo it if they do go down this route this offseason. Not that they could, we have about six players I don't see going anywhere.

[FutureMan]

The 401K analogy is incredibly laughable but I’ll humor y’all’s train if thought. Ok, so we don’t sign anyone and we develop our youth. Championships are won by teams with a top ten player and are seeds 1,2 or 3. This should be amusing. Who is that player that y’all are betting is a top ten player in the league?? Luka, Johnson, or Poeltl?

Like I said earlier this organization didn’t have to make big moves because they had Duncan. Also if you want to continue the 401K analogy. Our youth will get us a nice 6-8 seed retirement. But you’ll never have anything more because you only focused on that.

[Dejounte]

The 401K analogy is incredibly laughable but I’ll humor y’all’s train if thought. Ok, so we don’t sign anyone and we develop our youth. Championships are won by teams with a top ten player and are seeds 1,2 or 3. This should be amusing. Who is that player that y’all are betting is a top ten player in the league?? Luka, Johnson, or Poeltl?

Like I said earlier this organization didn’t have to make big moves because they had Duncan. Also if you want to continue the 401K analogy. Our youth will get us a nice 6-8 seed retirement. But you’ll never have anything more because you only focused on that.

It's an age old debate. You just rang the tank gang bell, and any minute now they're going to come in here with their spineless takes on how we need to lose every game this season not realizing there's much more that's lost than the record you have at the end of that season. It's completely short sighted.

Honestly, I think we're on the verge of something great. Jokic wasn't recognized for his greatness until his third or fourth season in the league, and neither was Jamal Murray. We only need a couple of our players to emerge, and it's too early to tell if one of them won't. The Nuggets are the model for how any team should build. Think about it-- they will be in playoff contention for a long time and they have their players locked up forever. There was no need for go big or go home signings, there was no need for tanking. They did it through solid roster construction and letting their compe ive status develop their players.

Don't forget, *We are a small market team*. You mention that championship teams have top ten players but fail to mention that most of those teams were big market ones who won with players who walked through their door because it's a big market.

Also, how the are Markannen and Collins top ten players in your eyes?

[Dejounte]

Check out this article by the CHICAGO newspaper:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/chicago...auri-markkanen

"Are the Bulls better without forward Lauri Markkanen?"

That's a huge red flag.

[talkspurs]

So then deal with it in three years. The Spurs shouldn’t be passing up on players that want to sign now because maybe Poeltl might be a better version of Splitter, Luka could be 1/4 as good of a player as Ginobili, or Johnson 1/2 as good as Kawhi. They need to push every year since they don’t have a Duncan to build around.

Also it’s not a “train wreck”. You just be a great organization and figure it out or you’re not.

I agree that they Should not be passing up players they want to sign now because they might have better players. However I dont think they should be signing players just to make a big splash. getting either of the two players you suggested I dont think would make us better but we would have the "big signing". I would rather take on a bad contract and get an asset for it or front load someone else contract si we would keep salary open for someone we want or for our players when they come up.

You also say to deal with it in year 3 but it is not always that easy. If that player has shown that he is not as good as thought he could be hard to move and we would have to give up daft picks to get rid of him or maybe some of our young players. Even if you buy them out they still count against the cap.

[bluebellmaniac]

The 401K analogy is incredibly laughable but I’ll humor y’all’s train if thought. Ok, so we don’t sign anyone and we develop our youth. Championships are won by teams with a top ten player and are seeds 1,2 or 3. This should be amusing. Who is that player that y’all are betting is a top ten player in the league?? Luka, Johnson, or Poeltl?

Like I said earlier this organization didn’t have to make big moves because they had Duncan. Also if you want to continue the 401K analogy. Our youth will get us a nice 6-8 seed retirement. But you’ll never have anything more because you only focused on that.

It's like you just became a fan of the team last week. We have some awesome potential on this team, and mainly because we are helping to develop it. Murray, Luka, Keldon all.have an opportunity to be All-Stars. They aren't the only ones either. This is an incredibly DEEP team. We have a complex system, but as the light bulbs go off on understanding it, we are seeing huge leaps in performance. I don't think we need Collins or anyone else that would take aax or near-max salary to sign. We have an opportunity to have multiple All-Stars or that caliber of players on the team and the ability to throw waves of talent at teams. The talent on the second team blows away teams already. Just need to get them focused and continuing that upward trajectory and we are good.

[R. DeMurre]

I never got the Markkanen hype. I watched him play a lot at Arizona and he never wowed me as a prospect, and certainly not as potentially the "next Dirk." His shooting percentages are up this year but his rebounding, shot blocking, and D are all extremely mediocre at best. I'd rather the Spurs sign Bjelica at a discount than give anything near max money to Markkenan.