TBDOG's offseason wish list

[tbdog]

Probably one of the biggest and busiest offseason for the Spurs in a long time, due to the 2 straight playoff droughts, huge cap space, a significant decision to be made on Derozen, and plenty of areas of improvement. Spurs technically have space to sign 2 young max players, but unfortunately, the free agency market is pretty dry, with Derozan being the likely best free agent.


DDR - I think DDR is about 30 to 35 best players in the NBA. In saying that, if he is your best player, your likely not going to make the playoffs. It is essential if the Spurs decide to keep DDR moving forward, that they pair him with another player in that region. If the Spurs can't make that happen, then what is the point of keeping DDR?


Gay & Mills - Spurs were the 10th youngest team in the NBA last season. Losing Gay & Mills would hurt unless they have replacements in mind. Also, Spurs were last in 3PA and 7th last in 3P%. Losing Gay & Mills 3 point shooting would be disastrous moving forward. I think Mills returns because he has a 3pt shooting ability that the team desperately needs and also adds pg depth. Jones isn't ready to take on a bigger role.


Gay - is likely gone. In my opinion, he joins a contender. Spurs would need to replace his bench production. Šamanić will be ready to become part of the rotation but not in Gay's minutes.


Dieng - Should be resigned. He is a veteran and has a 3pt shot. Eubanks and Dieng moving forward as the backup centres solidify this position for cheap.


Lyles - He is gone and good luck to him. No need to spend more time on that.


Other decisions.


Poeltl - Here is the thing, I like him. He is on a great contract. But as a starting center, he is one of the worst ones. Valanciunas demonstrated how much better he is during the play-in an elimination game. If Poeltl can't handle a player like Valanciunas, then what hope do Spurs have against the all-star bigs in the league? You either consider regulating him to the bench or use him as trade bait. The decision does not necessarily need to be made this coming offseason. But consideration should be made when Spurs upgrade the 4.


White/Murray pairing - Look, I am not convinced it will ever work, at least not as starters. I think they are the Spurs best trade assets. If the Spurs are dedicated to these two, then one should come off the bench and reduce the time they share the court. White's minutes probably need to get the Manu treatment regardless, to ensure he is healthy when it counts.


Spurs should target two skills of need; three point shooting in volume and competent power forward with a steady 3 point shot, either as a starter or replacement for Gay.


Players to aim for.


Wing:
Duncan Robinson
Winslow
Mcdermott
Reggie Bullock
Maurice Harkless
Devonte' Graham
Tim Hardaway Jr.


Power Forwards:
Bjelica
Bobby Portis
Kelly Olynyk
Jarrett Allen
Jason Collins


Plan A - Spurs aim big.


In this scenario, Spurs make a push not only for the playoffs but also for a deep run. Spurs target Allstar big by using cap space, youth and 1sts.


The Spurs give DDR the third year but under 90mil. Spurs trade White + Poeltl, 2021 1st rd pick and 2023 top 10 protected 1st and pick swap, to Twolves for Towns. Alternatively, add Walker for Rubio instead of an extra 1st.


Alternatively, Spurs trade Poeltl + Johnson and 2021 1st rd pick and 2023 top 16 protected 1st to Pacers for Sabonis.


I think Towns is very much available but will require a big trade to make it happen. Sabonis is less likely but has a better contract is also close as a player in talent compared to Towns. This strategy realigns cap space for the 2024 season instead of 2023.


Spurs use the rest of the cap space on Mcdermott. Resign Mills.


Rotation idea:
Murray / Mills
Walker / Vassell
Derozan / Mcdermott
Johnson / Samanic
Towns / Dieng




Plan B - Trade Derozan for a better fit. Spurs keep their 1st.


I see three teams as a serious threat to go after DDR and willing to pay. Hawks, Bulls, and Knicks. If DDR chooses Knicks, I don't see anything Spurs could obtain due to their cap space. Hawks will target DDR because he will team up with Atlanta shooters. DDR playmaking ability would push Atlanta forward. Bulls are likely going to make a hard push to get a quality player to team up with Vuc and Lavine, however don't have the cap space.


Plan B (1).
Atlanta trade Collins (Max contract) for DDR. This is simply that Atlanta doesn't want to match Collins contract but willing to spend on DDR on their push for deep playoff run with Young. Technically, Spurs don't need to do the trade, however, it might provide Atlanta incentive to let Collins go if they get DDR in his place. Spurs use the next chuck of their space going after Duncan Robinson.


Alternatively, Atlanta keeps Collins but trade Gallinari, which should give Spurs some wiggle room to work in another signing.


Rotation idea:


Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Johnson / Walker / Vassell
Collins (Gallinari) / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng


Plan B (2)
Spurs receive Thad Young, Satoranský and Troy Brown from Bulls. This allows Spurs to gain some veterans and replace Gay. It also allows Spurs to give out 25 to 30 mil in contracts and go with a stronger youth movement moving forward rather than swinging for the fences. Spurs sign Duncan Robinson and have another shot at free agency in 2022.


Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Satoransky
Walker / Vassell
Johnson / Young / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng


Plan C


DDR leaves for nothing. Spurs target trades by using cap space with youth and picks.


Plan C (1)


Spurs trade Walker and 2021 1st to Pistons for Grant. Pistons are going to lose Grant regardless and besides, are not going anywhere for a few more years. Walker is the carrot. Grant's contract fits right in line with the cap space for the 2023 offseason. Grant fits with Poeltl and forms an aggressive defensive inside presence. Spurs use the next to 40 mil to secure Duncan Robinson and Mcdermott, and resign Mills and Dieng on cheap deals.


Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Mcdermott / Vassell
Grant / Johnson / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng


Plan C (2)


Spurs trade Walker and 2021 1st pick, for Harrison Barnes and 2022 second. Go after Duncan Robinson and Markkanen, resign Mills and Dieng on cheap.


Rotation idea:
Murray / White
Robinson / Mills
Barnes / Vassell
Johnson / Markkanen / Samanic
Poeltl / Dieng


Plan D


DDR walks and the Spurs make a push for a playoff run. Spurs do Plan B (2) without any trade, eg Collins and sign Mcdermott or instead Spurs sign Markkanen, Robinson and Mcdermott outright.


Plan E


Spurs keep their cap space for 2024 and plan for a super conservative approach by singing average players for big 2 year deals. They target players like Winslow, Mcdermott or Bullock and give them big 2 year deals. They also target Bobby Portis, Devonte' Graham, Kelly Olynyk or Otto Porter. Spurs resign Mills. Under this plan, the Spurs plan to go with a youth movement, preparing themselves to miss out on the playoffs without looking at a play in. Spurs later look at trading vets like McDermott, Mills, Olynyk to a contender looking for a playoff run.


Murray / White
Walker / Mills
Mcdermott / Vassell
Johnson / Samanic
Poeltl / Olynyk

[LCM]

Like alot of your thoughts and scenarios. 1) I know letting Mills go will cost us 3pt shooting, but his play in total isn't werth it to me. Let him walk. 2) Miami has team options on Dragic and Iggy, they account for 34 million. They will drop them to pay Robinson, and probably resign Dragic at a lower cost for more years and let Iggy walk. 3) With DDR there are players and picks to possibly get from Atlanta and Chicago, if that is where DDR wants to go. If it's the Knicks, I'd still try to do a S&T into their cap space, even if it's for 2nd rd draft picks. Which the Knicks have a bunch.

Towns is intriguing. Advanced Stat metrics don't love him. But the GM was under Morey in Houston, and Poeltl is a taller Cappella. Defense, roll to the rim, lobs, only shots 5 feet from the basket or dunks, sets great screens. Or use Poeltl, Walker, and Draft picks to get Holmes and Barnes out of Sacramento. Collins and Markkanen have to be considerations to upgrade the 4. I think looking at Ish Smith in a back up PG role and mentor Jones would be ideal. McDermott may want to stay in Indiana, not uproot family. But it'll depend on what Pacers can offer. Would love to have him. KBD and Dieng need to be resigned, especially Dieng!

There are so many directions this organization can go. They need to break through the haze of the last three years and get this franchise back on course to making playoff runs.

[PrimeMinister]

The nba in 2021 is filled with dudes who can hit a 3

there’s no reason to be married to aging vets who don’t even do that in an efficient manner.

go young. Don’t bother with anyone over 27-30 max. Hope to see continued improvements in White, Murray, Johnson, Walker. If they suck we bottom out. If they improve drastically we have an exciting young team with cap flexibility.

Demar is like a top 30 box score guy and a top 100 impact guy if we’re being generous.

Players like Doug McDermott, Harrison Barnes, known commodities don’t really do anything for the spurs but keep them in purgatory. Pick a direction, this is the year to do it. Defense, youth, pace and space.

Murray/White/Vassell/Keldon/Jakob

Jones/Walker/Samanic/Diop and some smattering of young FAs and the first rounder to fill out the rotation. Sink or swim.

[Dejounte]

The nba in 2021 is filled with dudes who can hit a 3

there’s no reason to be married to aging vets who don’t even do that in an efficient manner.

go young. Don’t bother with anyone over 27-30 max. Hope to see continued improvements in White, Murray, Johnson, Walker. If they suck we bottom out. If they improve drastically we have an exciting young team with cap flexibility.

Demar is like a top 30 box score guy and a top 100 impact guy if we’re being generous.

Players like Doug McDermott, Harrison Barnes, known commodities don’t really do anything for the spurs but keep them in purgatory. Pick a direction, this is the year to do it. Defense, youth, pace and space.

Murray/White/Vassell/Keldon/Jakob

Jones/Walker/Samanic/Diop and some smattering of young FAs and the first rounder to fill out the rotation. Sink or swim.

Hmm I don't think the Spurs can go into next season without spending some money. They have to meet the cap floor.

[R. DeMurre]

The Thad Young/Satoransky scenario is my favorite. I think they're an upgrade over the current vet situation, and both have contracts that end after next season. I just wonder if Chicago has any interest in DeRozan. One thing the Spurs can do is offer front loaded contracts to free agents as a way to reach the cap floor for next year but also stay flexible for the 2022 & beyond.

[R. DeMurre]

I think Dieng's going to be hard to retain, but I hope the Spurs can. I know if I was Golden State, I'd be looking at him pretty seriously. A starting five of Curry/Klay/anyone/Green/Dieng would be imposing, where Dieng hangs out on the three point line, leaving the paint open with Green roaming for three point miss rebounds. That, plus Dieng has shown he can be an effective top-of-the-key passer for a motion offense.

[itzsoweezee]

Anyone who thinks Demar is a useful piece going forward should be completely ignored

[cjw]

I think Dieng's going to be hard to retain, but I hope the Spurs can. I know if I was Golden State, I'd be looking at him pretty seriously. A starting five of Curry/Klay/anyone/Green/Dieng would be imposing, where Dieng hangs out on the three point line, leaving the paint open with Green roaming for three point miss rebounds. That, plus Dieng has shown he can be an effective top-of-the-key passer for a motion offense.

That’s my fear, unless the Spurs and he have some sort of agreement that he’s back.

Warriors will be limited as a tax team on what they can pay him, so there’s that.

[PrimeMinister]

Hmm I don't think the Spurs can go into next season without spending some money. They have to meet the cap floor.

60 million committed before signings and the draft. #11 this year should slot in somewhere around 5 million. Assuming they sign the first rounder they have somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-35 million in salary to spend before they hit the floor.

I’d rather overspend on younger players with some amount of upside than overpay or even just give market value to Doug McDermott or Olynyk. If the goal is to roll over cap space into subsequent seasons, I can understand the move in that cir stance. But role, touches, and development should be a consideration as well and they shouldn’t be s ing out money to proven commodities at the expense of player development.

Not gonna go through the whole FA class and plan out target by target but the Bobby Portis suggestion i saw earlier today is exactly what I mean.

[tbdog]

The Thad Young/Satoransky scenario is my favorite. I think they're an upgrade over the current vet situation, and both have contracts that end after next season. I just wonder if Chicago has any interest in DeRozan. One thing the Spurs can do is offer front loaded contracts to free agents as a way to reach the cap floor for next year but also stay flexible for the 2022 & beyond.

Hey buddy. Pitty young didn't turn out.