There was a telling moment during the Mar del Plata summit of the Americas in Argentina earlier this month. As the 34 leaders walked to the seaside spot chosen for their group photograph, they chatted and joked among themselves. But while they strolled in groups, one leader walked alone: the US president.
George Bush's isolation was more than symbolic. It was borne out by the failure of the summit to rubberstamp the US-backed creation of a south American trade zone. Both President Bush's isolation and the failure of the latest US-inspired trade plan for the continent highlight a question preoccupying US policy-makers and Latin American leaders: is the region drifting away from the influence of its northern neighbour?
Between now and the end of 2006, 11 presidential elections will be held in Latin America. The political changes and challenges that ensue could see a continent redrawn.
"In a real way Latin America is up for grabs," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a Washington-based thinktank. "At the very time when the US has one of the most conservative administrations, it's dealing with a Latin America that is moving to the left, not to the far-out left, but sufficiently to the left that Latin America is beginning to think about non-traditional relationships and affiliations."
Washington's unease is heightened by the presence of leaders who, at least nominally, come from the left. In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was elected from the Workers' party; Chile elected Ricardo Lagos, the first socialist president since Salvador Allende; Argentinians voted in Nestor Kirchner, who came from the leftwing faction of the Peronist party; and Uruguay chose Tabaré Vázquez, the candidate of a coalition of leftwing and progressive groups