I saw this Houston Chronicle article posted on another site and noticed an interesting tidbit:This is an excellent point from a writer who actually knows his CBA (or at least has a good sources who does)! Duncan's maximum salary if he opts out is roughly $12.7 million, which is 105% of his salary for the 2002-03 season. Technically, however, Tim's "max level" is 25% of the cap (next year it will be 30%).The Spurs have saved roughly $15 million of cap room while winning the championship, and as long as they sign Duncan last to go over the cap on his contract, they can bring in Kidd and have change left over for a serviceable replacement for David Robinson.
Under the CBA, a percentage of a FA's previous salary counts against the cap until his team either re-signs or renounces him. This percentage is 150% for a FA like Duncan, but this amount cannot exceed Tim's max level. 25% of a $42 million cap is $10.5 million, which is obviously less than the $12.7 million that TD will receive. So in other words, take that $15 million cap figure and add an extra $2.2 or so to it because that's the Spurs' effective cap space.
Basically, if Tim opts out and waits to re-sign, this means that even if the Spurs sign a max FA like Kidd or O'Neal they will have MLE money available to sign either a big or a wing. After that, they'll be able to go over the cap and re-sign both Timmy and SJax.
Now I know why I never bothered to learn the CBA and all its little ins and outs. It's too complicated, and why bother when Ghengis is here to do it for me
Thanks for explanation and everything!
And as for the extra 2.2 Mill, all you can really say is ing Brilliant.
Makes alot of options seem more realistic
WOW!
That is HUGE! Great job genghis!
I know most here hate the idea of signing Kidd (I don't), but I think you have to admit that Kidd + P.J. Brown would be a pretty successful off season. O'Neal + Speedy + someone else for $2-3 million or O'Neal + an MLE FA (maybe even Payton?!?) would also be awesome. Or, if we could somehow steal Brand, we'd have around $7 million left over to play with! Oh, the possibilities...
:evil
Genghis,
Could you please tell us what is your best estimate regarding the total amount of money they Spurs could use this summer to lure FAs?
Based on the above info, I am assuming it is something between $16-18M. Is there a more accurate estimate?
Thanks bro,
-R
Does that mean we could squeeze in Brand and Maggette, Sterling willing? That would be very nice.
Well, my previous estimate for the Spurs committed salary was around $26.8 million (including SJax's cap hit). With a $40 million cap the Spurs would "save" an additional $2.7 million based on the information above; with a $42 million cap they "save" $2.2 million in cap space. So...
$40 million cap:
$24.1 million committed
$15.9 million in cap space
30% max FA: $12 million
After 30%: $3.9 million
25% max FA: $10 million
After 25%: $5.9 million
Obviously a $40 million cap would give us less flexibility, but a $42 million cap seems to be a good possibility.
$42 million cap:
$24.6 million committed
$17.4 million in cap space
30% max FA: $12.6 million
After 30%: $4.8 million
25% max FA: $10.5 million
After 25%: $6.9 million
This is why I exclusively visit FSP.
Spurs could sign JO'Neal, re-up Claxton, and then have some change left over to improve the deep bench...perhaps a shooter like Piatkowski or Voshon Lenard. Maybe a younger player. Perhaps more size, etc...
And another possibility made clear to us by genghis' astute analysis is that the Spurs could sign Kidd and every Kidd hater's favorite bigman....Olowokandi.
Any news on what Duncan is planning to do?
Tomorrow is the last day for him to inform the league on whether or not he will opt out. Since his Max level goes up to 30% next year and the possibility of a new CBA looms on the horizon- doesn't it make sense for him to not opt out?
What cap space scenarios do we have if Duncan chooses not to opt out?
Genghis,
Not to throw a wrinkle into this, but wouldn't duncan count 150% of his previous salary unless he's renounced or re-signed? I seem to remember this rule being put into place because of the Juwan Howard/Miami fiasco.
Tex
Of course there is the expense for waiting another year to sign a long term deal (ie insurance). I'm not sure what that runs for but I would imagine that if you want coverage for the loss of a $100 mil contract it isn't going to be too cheap.
texbound,150% of Tim's previous salary is more than 25% of the cap (TD's max level) so the 25% figure is what counts, not the 150%.Under the CBA, a percentage of a FA's previous salary counts against the cap until his team either re-signs or renounces him. This percentage is 150% for a FA like Duncan, but this amount cannot exceed Tim's max level.
I hear ya. This is a wrinkle I didn't even consider and I'm not, by any means, a salary cap expert (but i did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once). Great find.
Tex
Spurs could also potentially find some room to make an offer to Horry. For the right price would the Spurs be willing to bet that he could regain his touch?
scott, the jump to the 30% max level is basically meaningless to TD because, while his max level is 25% this year, he can receive 105% of last year's salary, which essentially puts him at that higher level already. If he chooses to opt out this year, the 30% max (of a $42 million cap) is $12.6 million, but 105% of TD's 2002-03 salary is actually slightly more at $12.7 million.
Now, financially, staying under contract this year and then signing a 7-year contract next summer is potentially (and likely) more lucrative than signing a 7-year contract this year and trying for a second contract in 2010. The difference between 1 + 7 years and 7 years is around $20 million and while TD may receive a $20 million contract in 2010, he obviously can't count on that kind of money at the age of 34.
Still, signing longterm now would give Tim more guaranteed money now and as MB pointed out, insurance on a future $120 million contract can't be cheap. Tim might also be willing to "take one for the team" (it's hard for me to say that with a straight face when the difference is something like getting $120 million or holding out for $140 million) and opt out so that the Spurs can sign their max and MLE. He'd definitely have more shots at winning championships that way (which ultimately might make the contract difference much less)...
One thing to consider is that $20 mil would be 8 years from now, as well as that the taxman will be getting a nice chunk of that. It's still significant, no doubt about it, but not in the form of $20 mil today.
So- if Tim doesn't opt out (which we'll know tomorrow)- what is our cap situation like?
Duncan will count against the cap at 1.125 times his 2002-03 salary. Take whatever that is and use it as a replacement for Duncan's salary in the scenarios that genghis laid out above.
Sweet find genghis,
As for Duncan opting out/staying, I'm sure Pop, RC, and Tim know what would work best for going shopping this summer.
AHF
Holy - I didn't even think of that. In the end it prob doesn't matter though, beause Tim would leave a lot of money on the table by opting out this year as opposed to next.
Tim Duncan - 0.25cap
30% max FA - 0.3cap
Rose - $4.725 M
Bowen - 3.733333 M
Ginóbili - $1.5435 M
Parker - 0.8562 M
QO for Jax - $0.813 M
4 contracts under 11 = 4*$0.366931 M = $1.46772 M
TOTAL - 0.55 cap + $13.1388 M
Therefore,
capspace = cap - TOTAL = 0.45 cap - $13.1388M
Here are the capspace figures for different caps...
$40 M :: $4.8612 M
$41 M :: $5.3112 M
$42 M :: $5.7612 M
$42.3 M :: $5.8962 M
$42.3 M is the latest cap figure I've heard
Therefore, the Spurs can sign a 30% max FA and have MLE or better left after if the cap comes in at $40.0628 M or above.
Kidd and PJ Brown is not only possible, but a very good bet if the cap comes in at $42.3 M. The thing that was making me sour on signing Kidd before was not having the ability to sign a quality big, but the if the cap comes in at $42.3 M the Spurs are going to have almost $1 million more than the MLE to spend, and that will ensure the Spurs will pick up a solid bigman.
Of course, this assumes Tim opts out of his deal to sign a long term contract this summer.
Oops.. I meant $40.0862 M.Therefore, the Spurs can sign a 30% max FA and have MLE or better left after if the cap comes in at $40.0628 M or above.
Nice calculations, base. I forgot to add the empty roster salary we'd get back after signing the max FA. Having more than the MLE after signing a max FA means the Spurs should be serious players in the second tier FA market as well. And if we could somehow steal Brand, we could have serious cash left over -- in the $8 million range!
TD would leave some money on the table by opting out but he would also bear the risk of losing out on what he could sign for now should he *gulp* be unable to perform due to some unforseen event that occurs between now and when he could sign his next deal in 2004. To mitigate that risk it's gonna cost him.
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