You’re massively under counting Detroit and forgetting a Flint Saginaw district that’s likely D, but the last two districts on your list are harder than you’d think to draw just because of how the populations are laid out. Either district would be a gift for Democrats. Right now the Dems in MI have 5 Detroit area districts, 1 Lansing/outer Detroit exurb district, and 1 Flint/Saginaw district.
I don’t expect that to change much.
Also whether race should or shouldn’t be a consideration federal law mandates that it is
. Any MI commission map that doesn’t have two majority black districts in Detroit (which actually hurts Dems because it packs their votes into 2 districts) would get thrown out in court.