2024 Electoral Map: Biden (D)* vs. DeSantis (R)

[Millennial_Messiah]

* - in bent

*** - note this assumes Donald Trump is not on the ballot in any way, shape or form and doesn't endorse Biden out of spite.






The GOP will also flip 6-10 Senate seats in this scenario depending on national environment.

[ChumpDumper]

I seriously don't know why you bother with predictions. Your track record is....not good.

[Ef-man]

All you do is raise Karrin's hopes and force him to drink heavily when all your predictions go to .

[Millennial_Messiah]

I seriously don't know why you bother with predictions. Your track record is....not good.

You're not going to credit me for moving the needle significantly especially PA/MI based on last night's results, tbh?

Another under the radar thing is that CA could be under 15% margin in 2024 making it a likely blue not safe blue state.

[ChumpDumper]

You're not going to credit me for moving the needle significantly especially PA/MI based on last night's results, tbh?

I'm just going by your record.

To wit:

No it doesn't. 538 still has Fetterman, Hassan (ok), and Kelly winning... two of those three aren't going to happen.

Also still has Laura Kelly winning handily in the governor race in Kansas which isn't happening. Also has Whitmer in Michigan winning 88% chance to 12% with a 7% margin of victory.... ain't happening.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'm just going by your record.

To wit:

With the outstanding vote in AZ Lake is going to win by about 6.5%. The question is what % are split ticket and how many pull through for Masters. If that portion of the Lake vote, which is election day and likely to be MAGA-heavy, breaks at least 80% for Lake-Masters and not Lake-Kelly, Masters wins.

[ChumpDumper]

With the outstanding vote in AZ Lake is going to win by about 6.5%. The question is what % are split ticket and how many pull through for Masters. If that portion of the Lake vote, which is election day and likely to be MAGA-heavy, breaks at least 80% for Lake-Masters and not Lake-Kelly, Masters wins.

Look at all the stuff you were definitely wrong about tho.

[ElNono]

With the outstanding vote in AZ Lake is going to win by about 6.5%. The question is what % are split ticket and how many pull through for Masters. If that portion of the Lake vote, which is election day and likely to be MAGA-heavy, breaks at least 80% for Lake-Masters and not Lake-Kelly, Masters wins.

The whole election-day thing being MAGA heavy hasn’t really panned out. Not in PA, not in GA and I doubt it’s going to make a difference in AZ either. It’s about the precincts. If the bulk of what’s really outstanding is Maricopium county, it’s really a tossup.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The whole election-day thing being MAGA heavy hasn’t really panned out. Not in PA, not in GA and I doubt it’s going to make a difference in AZ either. It’s about the precincts. If the bulk of what’s really outstanding is Maricopium county, it’s really a tossup.

It's spread out across the state and yes about half are Maricopa.

Basically expect to see what we saw in the primary, the days following August 2nd. Lake's rino challenger was winning Maricopa and had a 10 point lead at the end of election night but kept sinking and sinking as the day-of votes started to trickle through, and Lake ended up winning by 6.5-7% including winning Maricopa by a couple.

As we saw in 2020, AZ system is vastly different from PA, GA, MI. The gap was so wide the state was called for Biden on election night, but Trump was able to whittle it down to an extremely narrow margin.