The State of the League

[Mr. Body]

I know a lot of threads are rocketing around, and I know there's a forum for NBA stuff at large, but I wonder if anyone wants to talk the NBA landscape right now.

We're at a historical changing point, I feel, where one major generation of superstars is nearly done. Of course we've seen this before. The last one was right after Jordan retired and the next gen (Kobe, Duncan, Garnett, Nowitzi) was materializing. I'm going to use a lot of numbered points for no reason.

1. I feel like the league is going to be very weak in the next several years. It's already pretty weak, with no really exceptional teams.
2. A number of era-strong teams are at the end of their shelf life. Warriors, Lakers.
3. Other top-era teams are seriously questionable if they will remain strong. Boston, Milwaukee.
4. Supposedly perinneal playoff teams are already dunzo or close to it. Brooklyn, Dallas, Chicago, Philadelphia, Toronto, Phoenix.
5. Many teams splurged on assets to get them over the top and traded draft picks they no longer have.

The next several years, we'll see teams like Sacramento, Minnesota, Denver, Utah, and OKC rise in the WC. Of these only Utah and OKC have significant assets to really improve themselves. A team like Phoenix has a very short window and traded a lot to get Durant. Zion may have tanked the Pels... or not.

What does this mean for the Spurs?

1. They can take it slowly, but are instantly in front of many other teams who are suddenly in quagmires of uncertainty.
2. The league is imploding right now. So many teams pulling the plug.
3. Playoffs will soon be available almost by default.
4. The current generation is almost done or has neutered themselves. Harden, Westbrook, Durant, James, Kawhi, are all almost out.
5. Younger generation is in questionable positions. Giannis, Doncic. Only Jokic and Tatum seem to be in good positions.
5. The super-team era may be over, as both the high-level players are no longer around and the CBA has killed it.

The upcoming era is going to be painful for the NBA. These times come and go; I remember when Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse were supposedly the new young talents.

While I don't think the Spurs will push things with splashy FAs or waste their future drafts, they're already in fantastic shape to take advantage of this environment while growing naturally.

1. The Spurs can take advantage in being compe ive.
2. They can also take advantage in their draft capital. Many teams don't have much in the years ahead where even a 2nd can appeal.
3. Other than internal devel, the Spurs' main questions are a) when to keep or continue with players, b) what to do with draft treasury, c) how to transition from Pop into a new era of stability.

It's crazy how optimized the situation is for the Spurs right now.

[spurraider21]

the landscape of the west is very favorable to up and coming teams. warriors will still be a threat but not the unbeatable juggernaut they were for a while. the lakers are declining (though obviously, with healthy james/davis, can never count them out). phoenix looked like a problem but the early returns on the durant trade look abysmal. could be looking at a situation where some of the biggest stars in the west are neutralized by their situations (doncic, lillard, booker, morant, zion)

its the nuggets who look locked and loaded, having all their big parts locked up for at least a couple more years. however, they are getting into tax territory, and wont have first rounders in 2023, 2025 or 2027

otherwise, pelicans with a healthy zion and an ascending OKC (they still have a ton of extra draft picks coming in, and dont forget, Chet should be an impact player for them) are the obvious ones to worry about

Utah has ammunition, but they're not as close as OKC is. minnesota is collapsing into itself like a black hole. sacto is good but not imposing

good short term outlook for the west, but i also dont know if the spurs will really be in a position to capitalize in the next year or two unless wemby actually drops in as a legitimate all star caliber player right off the bat

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Zach Lowe in his latest podcast was talking about a dynamic in the new CBA that is going to have teams attempting to jettison salary to get under thresholds. How that works I have no idea, I don't know about the NBA CBA.

If he is right though, it's a buyers market and having cap space and trade assets puts us in a favorable position.

[Mr. Body]

Zach Lowe in his latest podcast was talking about a dynamic in the new CBA that is going to have teams attempting to jettison salary to get under thresholds. How that works I have no idea, I don't know about the NBA CBA.

If he is right though, it's a buyers market and having cap space and trade assets puts us in a favorable position.

That's going to produce a small free-for-all. And then teams are imploding left and right as it is. The OKC gen of Westbrook-Harden-Durant have just destroyed a series of teams. Kyrie is destroying teams. Chicago is pulling out. Toronto looks done. Dallas ed things up. Clippers may already be done. Harden ed Philly hard.

All this is product of how flat the league has been compe ion-wise. When GSW got hurt, teams fired out picks trying to get pieces and win a chip. For the most part it didn't work. And now so many of them are limping around in the middle of the ocean.

[JPB]

Jerry Stackhouse, like the new MJ?

I agree with the overall lack of talent, and I would add lack of charisma with the actual generation. Enter Wemby (who has both), and it's not a hazard if he's been (rightfully so) hyped to death for a year. Imagine the NBA bought french BB ligue rights to stream his games online (a first)... ESPN has also been pimping him since last summer.. They know they need a new face to the NBA and he's their living for the next decade at least. He's a blessing for the NBA.

[BatManu20]

Just wait til the Spurs sign Giannis in ‘25 or Luka in ‘26 to pair with Wemby tbh.

[FkLA]

I've been thinking the same thing. The league is about to be wide open. Be smart about it, but I'm not opposed to the Spurs being aggressive.

[thiste]

Perennial not perrineal.

[Mr. Body]

Perennial not perrineal.

off.

[RC_Drunkford]

I expect the Spurs to be so dominant by 2025 that they can 5-peat tbh. If they execute this right we will have the most dominant team in the NBA since the 80s

[The Truth #6]

Feels like we just went through a spending frenzy, like a boom cycle. Now the big markets are about to enter a recession. Maybe not the best analogy but seems to fit.

It really is good for the Spurs. But even with Wemby, no one should expect the Spurs to suddenly become media darlings. It will be about Lebron, Durant, Curry’s legacy et cetera. The best players will be foreign born. The league office may panic but owners are still rich.

[rascal]

The league is not static, it's always changing . You can't look at this moment in time and predict what teams will be like two or three years from now let alone make any claims about what it will be like several years from now.

There will be player movement, happens every year with free agency and trades and new players coming in from the draft. Teams will change their rosters and get better or worse.

No one knows what's going to happen with many of the teams in the league so trying to speculate two or three years or several years from now is pointless.
Especially teams like the Lakers who rebuild through free agency and quickly can turn their fortune around. Claiming that they are done for several years and won't be able to build a super team, you have to know better than that.

The Spurs just need to focus on fielding the best team they can and not be concerned about The State of The League.

[CGD]

Agree on the transition, but not because of the players you list but rather because of the age of the LeBron, CP3, Durant, Melo generation. I don’t think the league is imploding, but rather the parity in the league has never been better in my view.

My hypothesis is that fans are still internalizing that all the best players/the mvp class right now are international (Donic, Freak, joker, embiid), and they assume that means bad somehow. Now add Wemby to that mix.

[Mr. Body]

Agree on the transition, but not because of the players you list but rather because of the age of the LeBron, CP3, Durant, Melo generation. I don’t think the league is imploding, but rather the parity in the league has never been better in my view.

My hypothesis is that fans are still internalizing that all the best players/the mvp class right now are international (Donic, Freak, joker, embiid), and they assume that means bad somehow. Now add Wemby to that mix.

Parity is just parity. It just means things are equal and level. And it's not because there are a lot of good teams in the league right now. It's because there are no good teams in the league, or rather great ones. Last year's Warriors won almost by default -- they would have been cooked by almost any other champion. This year's Miami and Denver may make it through and it's the same. Good players, but as teams they're the top of a very ordinary league right now.

As for the players, yes, my point is the LeBron generation is just about done. The next era is practically done, too. They were dominated by the three Thunder guys, who are all underwhelming personalities. Only Durant was able to ring and it was because he coattailed. All three of them are basically done as compe ive forces already.

[Mr. Body]

Celts look like they need a big change. I see a S&T with Brown. They really effed themselves by not going after Poeltl.

[talkspurs]

Celts look like they need a big change. I see a S&T with Brown. They really effed themselves by not going after Poeltl.

I am thinking they go hard after Naz reid this summer. that will give them a good big and can learn from horford. I think they will only have the taxpayer mle. They may have to trade for him but I think they will be after him this summer.

[Mr. Body]

I am thinking they go hard after Naz reid this summer. that will give them a good big and can learn from horford. I think they will only have the taxpayer mle. They may have to trade for him but I think they will be after him this summer.

I'm not sure Reid would help the core issue, though: Their offense is iso-driven and predictable. Poeltl might have helped lock down the inside but he's also become a great facilitator. They need a new coach and maybe to find other parts they can get for Brown.

[Big Empty]

I like what i saw in the finals. I saw defense, I saw the big men dominating again in the Joker and Adebayu. Miami chunked 3s and tried to survive with it but they arent the Goldenstate splash brothers, who are aging. The league has been trying to prepare their teams to compete with Goldenstate the last 8 years and 3 point shooting has been the priority. As the splash brothers age out the league looks like it may be headed back to a more traditional NBA where yes, you need some shooters, but you also need defense and size in the middle. The Spurs have size in the frontcourt now in Wemby/Sochan/Collins. If Vassel and Johnson can continue to get better this team can make some noise. We’ll see what direction the Spurs go during the draft.

[KingKev]

I was disappointed in Butler last night as I think he deferred but how can you not love these playoffs?!? This was the most old school basketball we have seen in a minute.

Refs swallowing their whistles. Culture over build a bear teams. Defense…. Like actual ing defense!

Now cue the Wemby era.

[Dex]

I like what i saw in the finals. I saw defense, I saw the big men dominating again in the Joker and Adebayu. Miami chunked 3s and tried to survive with it but they arent the Goldenstate splash brothers, who are aging. The league has been trying to prepare their teams to compete with Goldenstate the last 8 years and 3 point shooting has been the priority. As the splash brothers age out the league looks like it may be headed back to a more traditional NBA where yes, you need some shooters, but you also need defense and size in the middle. The Spurs have size in the frontcourt now in Wemby/Sochan/Collins. If Vassel and Johnson can continue to get better this team can make some noise. We’ll see what direction the Spurs go during the draft.

Agreed. Nuggets were #1 in the West and won the championship for a reason...they are a well constructed team. They have an MVP in Jokic, a legitimate 2nd threat with Murray, a solid 3/4 in Gordon, and all other little pieces around them. Got great contributions from guys like Bruce Brown and Christian Braun (a rookie).

Hopefully the last few years plus the new CBA reinforces that the formula to winning isn't quite as simple as just picking up two max players and surrounding them with vet mins and GLeaguers.

Also, shout out to Jokic and the passing from the Nuggets in general. Jokic nearly averaged a trip-dub, and I believe Murray averaged 10 assists in the Finals as well. It wasn't quite the Beautiful Game Spurs but there were flashes of it, Spo was probably having flashbacks there on the bench.

[Dex]

I was disappointed in Butler last night as I think he deferred but how can you not love these playoffs?!? This was the most old school basketball we have seen in a minute.

Refs swallowing their whistles. Culture over build a bear teams. Defense…. Like actual ing defense!

Now cue the Wemby era.

Pretty sure dude isn't healthy. His numbers fell of dramatically in the Finals, and last night he was clearly deferring to role players like Strus and Vincent in the second half. He did post a mini-run late in the game to make things interesting but just ran out of gas.

Wouldn't be surprised if we hear a report of him getting some offseason surgery here soon. Jimmy really laid it all out there but his team was just outmatched.

[D-Robinson 50 fan]

I’m happy for Denver and their fans.

the league is in a great place and hopefully the media will do a better job of covering all the teams. The casual fans will come around if the media does a better job. Parody is always great.

[daslicer]

I like what i saw in the finals. I saw defense, I saw the big men dominating again in the Joker and Adebayu. Miami chunked 3s and tried to survive with it but they arent the Goldenstate splash brothers, who are aging. The league has been trying to prepare their teams to compete with Goldenstate the last 8 years and 3 point shooting has been the priority. As the splash brothers age out the league looks like it may be headed back to a more traditional NBA where yes, you need some shooters, but you also need defense and size in the middle. The Spurs have size in the frontcourt now in Wemby/Sochan/Collins. If Vassel and Johnson can continue to get better this team can make some noise. We’ll see what direction the Spurs go during the draft.

One of the many reasons I hated the Warriors is that they introduced the 3 point chuckfest we see that regularly now happens in the NBA. Teams felt the only way to compete with the Warriors was to engage in a 3-point shooting contest with them which was never going to work in the oppositions' favor. I felt the Spurs had the right idea how to beat them in '17, but the Zaza incident prevented it from happening.

Miami was a poor man's version of the Warriors. They got very close to winning a le by playing the 3-point chuckfest style of ball but ultimately fell short of it. Hopefully more teams start to eventually shift away from relying solely on 3's to win games. I saw too many playoff games where teams shot poorly from 3 with having games where they shot 6-50. That's absurd and disgusting to see. What most teams don't get is the Warriors won with the 3 ball because they had 2 goat shooters and as a team would consistently shoot close to 40 percent from 3. It's not a feasible way to win for many teams.

[CorrectCrusader]

I was disappointed in Butler last night as I think he deferred but how can you not love these playoffs?!? This was the most old school basketball we have seen in a minute.

Refs swallowing their whistles. Culture over build a bear teams. Defense…. Like actual ing defense!

Now cue the Wemby era.

Me and my old man were watching and when Bam and Jokic were getting real physical late in the fourth. We were both giddy. How can basketball turn two men into giggling schoolgirls? lol

[Dex]

One of the many reasons I hated the Warriors is that they introduced the 3 point chuckfest we see that regularly now happens in the NBA. Teams felt the only way to compete with the Warriors was to engage in a 3-point shooting contest with them which was never going to work in the oppositions' favor. I felt the Spurs had the right idea how to beat them in '17, but the Zaza prevented it from happening.

Miami was a poor man's version of the Warriors. They got very close to winning a le by playing the 3-point chuckfest style of ball but ultimately fell short of it. Hopefully more teams start to eventually shift away from relying solely on 3's to win games. I saw too many playoff games where teams shot poorly from 3 with having games where they shot 6-50. That's absurd and disgusting to see. What most teams don't get is the Warriors won with the 3 ball because they had 2 goat shooters and as a team would consistently shoot close to 40 percent from 3. It's not a feasible way to win for many teams.

You can also thank Houston and Pringles-ball for this.

The Rockets averaged a whopping 42.3 three-point attempts per game in 2017-2018, and won 65 games doing so. This also famously led to them missing 27 straight three-point attempts in their Game 7 loss to the Warriors in the WCF. You can live by the three, and you can die by the three.

Despite that, teams continue to copy the model. Warriors led the league with 43.2 3PAs this season, followed closely by the Boston Celtics at 42.6.