So Who's Gonna Go? A discussion of the current roster.

[Obstructed_View]

It's an amazing time to be a Spurs fan. I'm seeing a dizzying amount of analysis about who the Spurs should get to go with their prize draft pick. Second round gems, starting centers, free-agent flopping es. We're like kids with Mom's credit card at the candy store. We got our shopping carts full of sweets and are looking for more.

But there remains a reality that the Spurs have a roster full of players at the moment, each of which has some value, depending on the team's plans. Assuming they want to keep all their free agents, let's talk about some of the guys, and how they might fit. We talk about dozens of players we might bring in. Let's talk about who's here now.

Are the Spurs building for the future or making a playoff run?

This seems like the biggest question. And someone making a case for a player has to have an idea why or why not. Devonte Graham has voiced a commitment to preparing to be a valuable role player for the Spurs. Doug McDermott seems like exactly the kind of shooter you want to play a two-man game with Victor. But if you're going to roll with the youngsters, those guys seem like the first ones that have some value. If you decide to wait until the trade deadline, then you can't grab a bunch of free agents and draft picks now without someone having to go. Right now the only vet who isn't going to be here is Gorgui Dieng, and Victor gets his roster spot.

If you're building for the future, then the roster has a glut of guys in whom the Spurs have committed some level of effort to develop. Do you just throw away the two-way guys and waste the time spent letting them learn? Were they just here for the tank? Is a random second-round draft pick going to automatically be better? Do you trade Keldon Johnson because he's got value and count on a draft pick developing into a useful player? How long do you wait? Do you think Tre Jones is a backup? Do you let him go because Sochan is your point forward? Who else is running the offense?

I could write paragraphs on this stuff, but there's too much in my head. I'm interested in your thoughts about it. But try to follow some rules: If you want to bring in a free agent, who do you think needs to go? If you want to draft two guys in the second round, who are they replacing? If you think Keldon is trash and should be traded, what does trash bring back in a trade? Vet or rookie? Win now or build for the future? Do you believe that all the guys on the roster are actually a 20 win team, or were they held back and load-managed into winning the greatest prize in basketball, and can now be unleashed with their future superstar?

Pick a guy on the roster you want to keep or jettison and say why. Or just opine on how you think the Spurs should build going forward. I'll make specific posts about guys or groups of guys on the roster and we can talk about them individually.

[Obstructed_View]

Keldon Johnson

This is a name that comes up a lot as a trade chip. But why? Keldon has improved pretty steadily, and who knows what he's going to be when he shows up in the fall? He's also been a good leader and a team guy, he's an emotional spark plug, and he's on a good contract. Do you make him sixth man? Do you wait and see? Do you package him with second round picks for a shot at another big rookie?

1. Age

Tanking aside, we think the Spurs traded Jakob Poetl and Dejounte Murray because they were older than the core. They could bring back some value and could go to teams that were ready to compete. Keldon may be at that point now. If you're going with yet another youth movement, I guess you could make a case.

2. Skillset

He is small for a power forward, he's short for a small forward, and he's slow for a shooting guard. But that mismatch works in reverse as well, making him a problem for defenders at each position. He is a developing shooter and a fearless inside scorer, and seems like a team guy. Personally, I like him. I think he's the kind of guy you don't let go. He can cause matchup problems for teams and he looks like a winner. He doesn't really fit a traditional starting role, so make him the first guy off the bench to use his energy to punish gassed starters and second teamers. Also, he deserves to have a chance to win with the Spurs. Seems like a move to make him lose for a year, and then send him away just as the team's fortunes seem to be turning.

[Philthemage]

Mamu. I really hope we keep him because I love his creativity on offense. Defensively he may be below par but
I hope we have enough guys / system which can mask it.

[Mr. Body]

They're building for the future, but the time horizon has shortened considerably. If they make the playoffs this year, then fantastic. They may really go for it next year.

The shortened development horizon probably affects the guys who were on the longer development track the most. I mark those as Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, and Dominick Barlow. They each have promising (or very promising) skill sets, but may not have the same leisure and opportunity afforded Vassel, Johnson, Murray.

Then we have the rescues. Spurs astutely picked up cast-aways Charles Bassey, Sasho Mamukelashvili, and Julian Champagnie. Each is 22-24 years old and cannot be said to be 'development' prospects in quite the same way as the 19 year-olds. But each was stuck on stacked playoff teams where they couldn't find court time.

Last we have Keldon Johnson, alone of the core, although I'll mention Tre Jones, who is an almost 'must keep' due to his position. Keldon's timeline was actually very short, in my opinion. I think he might have been traded by the trade deadline as a 'good soldier' move, getting him to a playoff team. But now that's changed.

Of everyone mentioned:
Malaki Branham has the best chance to stay. His ceiling is unknown but high; only way I see him getting eventually moved is defense.
Blake Wesley will have at least another year to develop. I do think his future is wobbly, mostly because of guards that could get drafted eventually.
Dominick Barlow will get another year, probably.

Mamu, Champagnie have good skill sets. But are they NBA rotation guys? Champagnie seems safe - the team badly needs shooting. Mamu's skill set could be exceptional next to Wemby at times.

Bassey is locked into a remarkably cheap contract for several years and his strength and growing skill set could be very useful.

tl;dr I don't think anyone's out the door at all. But the horizon has shortened on what the team will be able to offer in terms of development and guaranteed roster spots. If the Spurs were looking at the playoffs in 2-3 years without the scads of draft picks, that would be one thing. But they will need to start trying to improve the starting lineup. And they may need to pull the plug earlier on a guy like Wesley.

[exstatic]

Mamu. I really hope we keep him because I love his creativity on offense. Defensively he may be below par but
I hope we have enough guys / system which can mask it.

Well, we should have one guy next year who can.

One of the archetypes that teams are hunting is a Jumbo Creator, guys 6’8” or 6’9” who and good handles, passing and vision. Mamu is a super jumbo creator at 6’11”. I see a better chance that Bassey gets traded than Mamu is let go.

[Obstructed_View]

They're building for the future, but the time horizon has shortened considerably. If they make the playoffs this year, then fantastic. They may really go for it next year.

The shortened development horizon probably affects the guys who were on the longer development track the most. I mark those as Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley, and Dominick Barlow. They each have promising (or very promising) skill sets, but may not have the same leisure and opportunity afforded Vassel, Johnson, Murray.

Then we have the rescues. Spurs astutely picked up cast-aways Charles Bassey, Sasho Mamukelashvili, and Julian Champagnie. Each is 22-24 years old and cannot be said to be 'development' prospects in quite the same way as the 19 year-olds. But each was stuck on stacked playoff teams where they couldn't find court time.

Last we have Keldon Johnson, alone of the core, although I'll mention Tre Jones, who is an almost 'must keep' due to his position. Keldon's timeline was actually very short, in my opinion. I think he might have been traded by the trade deadline as a 'good soldier' move, getting him to a playoff team. But now that's changed.

Of everyone mentioned:
Malaki Branham has the best chance to stay. His ceiling is unknown but high; only way I see him getting eventually moved is defense.
Blake Wesley will have at least another year to develop. I do think his future is wobbly, mostly because of guards that could get drafted eventually.
Dominick Barlow will get another year, probably.

Mamu, Champagnie have good skill sets. But are they NBA rotation guys? Champagnie seems safe - the team badly needs shooting. Mamu's skill set could be exceptional next to Wemby at times.

Bassey is locked into a remarkably cheap contract for several years and his strength and growing skill set could be very useful.

tl;dr I don't think anyone's out the door at all. But the horizon has shortened on what the team will be able to offer in terms of development and guaranteed roster spots. If the Spurs were looking at the playoffs in 2-3 years without the scads of draft picks, that would be one thing. But they will need to start trying to improve the starting lineup. And they may need to pull the plug earlier on a guy like Wesley.

Man, that's a good post. You organized 90 percent of what's in my head on this topic. Thank you.

You touched on all the guys I have an opinion on keeping. Birch, KBD, and Langford seem like the first guys to sacrifice for draft picks or free agents. I love Blake Wesley, but you are correct that he needs to show improvement sooner rather than later if he wants to stick.

[Mr. Body]

Only way I see Mamu getting cut/not resigned is if he's a total disaster in some way, like defensively, and he won't be. He has a great personality, works hard, and like ec says has very good creation abilities, which didn't work as well on Milwuakee but can be exceptional on the Spurs. Slightly different skillset, but he can fill-in for Sochan while playing the same secondary creation/instigation role.

[Mr. Body]

Champagnie I don't see having a long-term future here, just feeling like he's limited, even if his late-season shooting was real. I can see the FO targeting shooters (and wings) in future drafts. This team just literally has no other SF in the more traditional mold on the roster than Champagnie.

[slick'81]

Mamu is a guy pop will love. Guys like birch,kbd barlow and langford are disposable

[Obstructed_View]

Champagnie I don't see having a long-term future here, just feeling like he's limited, even if his late-season shooting was real. I can see the FO targeting shooters (and wings) in future drafts. This team just literally has no other SF in the more traditional mold on the roster than Champagnie.

He's also 22, but if you ignore the sample size, his scoring is pretty shocking. Have the Spurs announced the summer league roster yet? I'd hope JC is on that so we can see if it was a fluke or not.

[CGD]

I don’t really see the roster crunch. They can cut Birch, move on from KBD if they really need the space. This is a feel out year, and I really think they like all their end of bench prospects enough to keep looking at them. If they keep a SRP I assume that’s a 2 way candidate.

[Mr. Body]

He's also 22, but if you ignore the sample size, his scoring is pretty shocking. Have the Spurs announced the summer league roster yet? I'd hope JC is on that so we can see if it was a fluke or not.

I don't put huge stock in sudden late season production by fringe players on bad teams, whether it's Shaeden Sharpe or Julian Champagnie. Good teams are resting players for the playoffs and no longer gameplanning for awful opponents. Bad opponents are tanking and not rolling out their middling best.

That said, I did like how JC was hesitant to shoot, Pop got onto him, and he started letting it fly. If he can keep hitting, that's fantastic.

[exstatic]

I don’t really see the roster crunch. They can cut Birch, move on from KBD if they really need the space. This is a feel out year, and I really think they like all their end of bench prospects enough to keep looking at them. If they keep a SRP I assume that’s a 2 way candidate.

The roster crunch isn’t about this year. We can manage that. Next year, we again have 3 FRPs,in all likelihood, plus 3 SRPs. The guys signing this year won’t want to sign for one year. Ergo, roster crunch.

[Dverde]

I think they a going to run back almost the entire roster and see how they fit with Wemby. Next year will still be a rebuilding year and they’ll know more about what they have and what is needed moving forward at the end of it. I think KPD will sign elsewhere and Langford is out due to Branham’s solid play. Dieng is obviously out for roster space needs.

[MultiTroll]

Keldon Johnson

what he's going to be when he shows up in the fall?

2. Skillset

He is a developing shooter

Must know this info to decide. Last year was he simply following orders to chuck away and help complete the tank?
Or is he yet another Kobme Bryant school of idiot ball chuck chuck and chuck some more?

Seems he has to improve his outside shot or the +/- on his mismatches is too much minus.

If he vastly improves his outside shot, great. If not, then his trade value will tank.
There must be someone on Spurs staff who has a read on this. OTOH prolly never going to know until game time.

A dilemma indeed.

[mo7888]

I think Body and Ex nailed it on their summation on the roster. I'm going to limit my comment here to Keldon and Sochan. Obviously, one of them is going to be a 6th man. One of the key questions in my mind is, as a 6th man will that player embrace that role instead of just accepting it? I think the answer to that question will have a significant part to play in any trades we may be looking at. I would think at this point that the coaches/FO have a good idea about this. I don't have a feel for it yet myself..

[jjspur]

How well we do this upcoming season will depend a lot on how we do in this draft. Yes we got Wemby and that will help tremendously, but we have two other picks and a some decisions to make as to who stays and who goes. Select at least 1 of two decent 2nd rounders, let go of some unimpressive/always injured players, possibly make a surprise signing or trade and we have a very good chance to improve by at least 10-15 games. I'm sure the spurs have a plan and then probably a backup plan.

It all starts with a good draft and then the real fun begins. Do well spurs, last year really sucked but it really paid off. Lets move forward from this point on.

[Mr. Body]

I think Body and Ex nailed it on their summation on the roster. I'm going to limit my comment here to Keldon and Sochan. Obviously, one of them is going to be a 6th man. One of the key questions in my mind is, as a 6th man will that player embrace that role instead of just accepting it? I think the answer to that question will have a significant part to play in any trades we may be looking at. I would think at this point that the coaches/FO have a good idea about this. I don't have a feel for it yet myself..

PG and the Keldon/Sochan thing are the two biggest questions. As many have said, the PG spot can go with Jones/Graham/Wesley. My concern there isn't initiating offense but defending point-of-attack. Maybe they can do Collins-Wembenyama-Sochan-Johnson-Vassell but Devin would have to guard Fox, SGA, Kyrie, etc.

The PG can be resolved in many ways. The Sochan/Johnson question has fewer solutions:

For now, I feel like Keldon starts. His shooting improves the starting unit. Playing off Wembanyama he can slash and drive with impunity. I don't think he's as good off the bench. Sochan, however, came off the bench at Baylor and has that basket of skills that can plug in if the starters are stalling or just be a leader of the bench unit.

I don't think that's optimal. Eventually you want Sochan starting and that's why I think KJ may be moved eventually.

[mo7888]

PG and the Keldon/Sochan thing are the two biggest questions. As many have said, the PG spot can go with Jones/Graham/Wesley. My concern there isn't initiating offense but defending point-of-attack. Maybe they can do Collins-Wembenyama-Sochan-Johnson-Vassell but Devin would have to guard Fox, SGA, Kyrie, etc.

The PG can be resolved in many ways. The Sochan/Johnson question has fewer solutions:

For now, I feel like Keldon starts. His shooting improves the starting unit. Playing off Wembanyama he can slash and drive with impunity. I don't think he's as good off the bench. Sochan, however, came off the bench at Baylor and has that basket of skills that can plug in if the starters are stalling or just be a leader of the bench unit.

I don't think that's optimal. Eventually you want Sochan starting and that's why I think KJ may be moved eventually.

I agree with you on the Sochan/Keldon question being the more difficult one. There are several ways to address the PG issue. I do wish we'd hear a little more behind the scenes (looking at you Timvp) on Keldon and Sochan's thoughts/mentality about coming off the bench. That little bit of info might shed some light on what we're thinking re: trades.

[BacktoBasics]

There’s no reason Sochan can’t start at the 4 with Keldon at the 3. They play fine together.

[R. DeMurre]

I'm fine with the patient approach to suss out Wemby's fit, but my one concern about KJ is that he'll become San Antonio's John Collins, and the longer this happens, the lower his trade value becomes. People used to talk about Collins as a 20/10 guy but that was one year on a seriously losing team, and now he's viewed more objectively as something like a 15/8 guy, and nobody seems to want to offer much for him. Right now, some GMs might still see KJ as a 20 ppg piece with potential to be a #2 or #3 weapon on offense, but one more year of declining efficiency might eliminate that view. Of course, a guy like Aaron Gordon benefitted hugely from a change of scenery, and the most optimistic hope is that KJ does something similar running alongside Wembanyama. I'd still offer him to the Knicks for Quickley + salary filler in the hopes that IQ blossoms as a PG or efficient 6th man/combo guard, which seems like a much greater need than a 6'5" SF.

[mo7888]

There’s no reason Sochan can’t start at the 4 with Keldon at the 3. They play fine together.

In a year or two that'll probably work, but Zollins is starting at the 5 and Wembanyama at the 4 this year.

[Bruno]

Blake Wesley

He played 669 minutes for a 3.5 PER. The last time a NBA player played over 500 minutes in a season with a PER that bad was DeShawn Stevenson in 2009-2010...

If he doesn't show up during Summer League and in preseason, Spurs might not pick his third year option.

[TD 21]

I'm fine with the patient approach to suss out Wemby's fit, but my one concern about KJ is that he'll become San Antonio's John Collins, and the longer this happens, the lower his trade value becomes. People used to talk about Collins as a 20/10 guy but that was one year on a seriously losing team, and now he's viewed more objectively as something like a 15/8 guy, and nobody seems to want to offer much for him. Right now, some GMs might still see KJ as a 20 ppg piece with potential to be a #2 or #3 weapon on offense, but one more year of declining efficiency might eliminate that view. Of course, a guy like Aaron Gordon benefitted hugely from a change of scenery, and the most optimistic hope is that KJ does something similar running alongside Wembanyama. I'd still offer him to the Knicks for Quickley + salary filler in the hopes that IQ blossoms as a PG or efficient 6th man/combo guard, which seems like a much greater need than a 6'5" SF.

Nah. Johnson is on a team friendly contract and is a more desired archetype as a wing, who in a more streamlined role is probably a relatively efficient off-ball scorer/finisher.

Collins is a combo big, who's not adept either defending in space or at the rim, with limited ball skills offensively outside of spot up shooting, which cratered this past season.

I don't see the Knicks being interested in Johnson and the only way the Spurs get Quickley is drastically overpaying. Even then, the Knicks might work out a sign and trade to add more picks.

[R. DeMurre]

Nah. Johnson is on a team friendly contract and is a more desired archetype as a wing, who in a more streamlined role is probably a relatively efficient off-ball scorer/finisher.

Collins is a combo big, who's not adept either defending in space or at the rim, with limited ball skills offensively outside of spot up shooting, which cratered this past season.

I don't see the Knicks being interested in Johnson and the only way the Spurs get Quickley is drastically overpaying. Even then, the Knicks might work out a sign and trade to add more picks.

I wasn't comparing KJ's style or role to that of Collins. I was just making the comparison of potential dwindling trade value.