#this thread of for entertainment purposes only and not to be used as investment advice. any risk of gain or loss is 100% the responsibility of the investor and not contributors to this thread nor the owners of Spurstalk.....that said..
Those who play the market know what is riding on NVDIA after hours earnings today. She beats earnings and has a positive forward guidance and she rips past 500....miss earnings even slightly or have a negative forward guidance..and she plummets to 400 taking every tech stock and the SP 500 with it.
Not since Tesla's meteoric rise and subsequent fall have after hour earnings been more anticipated..if you are an investor...you know
Any clues to what could happen? There are some
Last edited by Nbadan; 08-23-2023 at 12:45 PM.
TAIPEI, June 1 (Reuters) - Nvidia Corp, a major supplier of chips and computing systems for artificial intelligence (AI), feels "perfectly safe" about relying so much on chip powerhouse Taiwan for manufacturing, its chief executive Jensen Huang said on Thursday.
Some companies have expressed concerns about potential risks to business given heightened military threats by China against the democratic island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, to Taipei's strong objections.
Taiwan produces the vast majority of the world's most advanced chips and is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) (2330.TW), the world's largest contract chipmaker and supplier to major companies like Apple Inc , U.S. chipmaker Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) and chip designer Qualcomm Inc.
Chips are crucial for building everything from iPhones and washing machines to cars and fighter jets.
Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor aren’t compe ors. In fact, Nvidia itself is a customer of Taiwan Semiconductor and has collaborated with the company in manufacturing the graphic chips it designs.
When NVIDIA announced its new Tesla V100 accelerator -- based on a chip code-named GV100 -- it disclosed that those GV100 chips are manufactured using Taiwan Semiconductor's 12-nanometer FFN technology. NVIDIA describes that as a variant of TSMC's 12-nanometer technology (which itself is an enhancement of the company's 16-nanometer technology) customized specifically for NVIDIA's use.
This is the first time that NVIDIA has ever talked about such a customized technology publicly.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nvid...tment-for-2023Nvidia earnings are now expected to drop -26% in its current fiscal 2023 at $3.27 per share. This is down from $4.44 a share in 2021. However, FY24 earnings are projected to rebound 34% at $4.37 a share. Earnings estimate revisions have declined for both FY23 and FY24 over the last 90 days.
From Zacks...
Bottom Line
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nvid...tment-for-2023Going into 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor appears to be the better investment at the moment. TSM sports a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) in correlation with rising earnings estimate revisions for its current fiscal 2022 with stellar bottom line growth expected.
On the other hand, Nvidia stock lands a Zack Rank #4 (Sell) at the moment with earnings estimates declining for its current fiscal 2023 which is already expected to be a down year.
“So TSMC, if you just have a look at market share, I believe manufactures around 50% of all semiconductors in the world. And I think that still understates how important it is, because these are some of the most advanced chips out there,” said Wang.
Semiconductor designers and manufacturers are on a quest to make chips smaller and better. Currently, TSMC and its South Korean rival Samsung
are the only foundries capable of manufacturing the most advanced 5-nanometer chips.
Nvidia Said To Be Tripling Production of World's Hottest AI Chip for 2024 — But Will Supply Chain Snags Bite?
As the global tech sector grapples with supply chain disruptions, NVIDIA Corporation
.NvDIA has reportedly made a bold move to triple the production of its highly sought-after H100 AI processor for the year 2024. This strategic response comes as supply chain challenges reverberate across the industry, impacting not only Nvidia but also major players like Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, HNHPF, better known as Foxconn, and Lenovo LNVGF
However, Nvidia’s surge in production is emblematic of broader supply chain challenges felt across the tech sector, including cloud service providers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, according to FT. With cloud service providers increasingly channeling investments into AI infrastructure, general-purpose servers are seeing a slowdown in demand, resulting in revenue drops for companies like Lenovo.
While the current supply chain bottlenecks present challenges, the sector is poised to reap massive rewards once these issues abate. Shipments of servers for training AI algorithms are projected to triple in the coming year, while AI servers’ share of the overall server market is expected to rise from 7% last year to approximately 20% in 2027, as per the report.
U.S. blacklists dozens of Chinese firms including SMIC, DJI
The United States added dozens of Chinese companies, including the country’s top chipmaker SMIC and Chinese drone manufacturer SZ DJI Technology Co, to a trade blacklist on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration ramps up pressure on China in his final weeks in office.
Reuters first reported the addition of SMIC and dozens of additional companies early Friday. The move is seen as the latest in Republican Trump’s efforts to cement his tough-on-China legacy as part of lengthy fight between Washington and Beijing over trade and numerous economic issues.
The U.S. Commerce Department said the action against SMIC “stems from China’s military-civil fusion (MCF) doctrine and evidence of activities between SMIC and en ies of concern in the Chinese military industrial complex.”
“The problem that SMIC is in now, the dilemma, is the U.S. government has put them on the en y list,” he said. “But the bigger picture is that SMIC has been cut off, at least for the moment, from acquiring the really cutting-edge equipment it needs from ASML
, which is a Dutch company.”
ASML makes the so-called extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment that’s used to produce the most advanced chips such as those manufactured by TSMC and Samsung. Reuters reported last year that the Trump administration pressured the Netherlands government to stop the sale of the machine to SMIC.
Nvidia Stock: Will a Beat Be Enough?
On 6/14/23, Collette Kress, Nvidia CFO held a Q&A at the Jefferies Investor Conference . In particular, there is one question on all investors’ minds.
Question
“You guys gave guidance for the July quarter, which beat everybody’s expectations and 50% sequential growth. And I think there is a concern from investors that this is kind of a one-time e that will come back down. I know you only guide one quarter at a time. But what do you say to investors who have a concern that it’s a one-time e? And can you just talk in general terms, what is the visibility typically like with the data center and hyperscale companies?”
Colette Kress
“Yes. What we have seen is certainly an astounding amount of interest worldwide globally from many different types of customer sets […] We have better visibility than what we have seen before and our ability to focus right now on procuring the supply.
As we indicated in our earnings, we have procured the supply to the demand that’s been put in front of us and that visibility that we see. […] So our guidance for Q2 is really building upon years and years of working of the industry on accelerated computing and solutions such as AI. And we continue to see demand and demand visibility for the full year as well that we believe will sustain as we finish in Q2.”
H100s are priced differently depending on where they are sourced. The Information has the H100s at $20,000 yet sourced an analyst that believes we could see over 1M H100s sold in 2023. This arrives at $35 billion in sales. Given these variables, and credible sources, it appears $30 to $40 billion is the range going into Q2 earnings that analysts want to see for full year data center revenue.
We believe the market will react negatively if Nvidia provides Q3 guidance that is in-line with consensus or lower than 12%. On the flip side, Nvidia will likely need to provide guidance of at least greater than 20% for a significant positive reaction. This is because consensus will likely need to make upward revisions to their earnings for the remainder of FY2024 and FY2025. This is critical to support the current valuation.
Our base case assumption is that Nvidia’s Q3 guidance will estimate q/q growth of at least +20%. Remember, H100 was only introduced to the market toward the end of the last calendar year. Q1FY24 was the very first quarter where Nvidia is beginning to see the impact of AI and demand for the H100. Ultimately, we believe Nvidia will close out the year with data center revenue that is 50% higher than Q2.
“I know that you have fielded this question probably 1,000 times since you reported there is kind of this view that all of your growth is driven by ASPs and maybe not as much by units. And how should investors think about the ASP growth versus the unit growth in the quarter past and the quarter outlook?”
Colette Kress
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bethkin...h=181f34e92f5c“No. We truly are seeing demand and need across such a wide group of folks. And that’s not just based based on selling a brand new architecture and ramping a new architecture, Hopper architecture. We are still shipping our existing prior architecture. But no, this is not about ASPs, this really is about just the growth that we are seeing in focusing on AI and accelerated computing. I believe more of it is just about sheer volume of companies that are really interested in taking this next step and really leveraging generative AI for all the work that they do. That’s really what it’s about.”
CFO Kress’s answer is important because it indicates further potential for margins to expand not just from pricing. On a three-year basis, Nvidia has just returned to its prior peak of about 65% gross margins (reported). Given the positive pricing and unit demand dynamics, the new normal is perhaps between 65% and 70% gross margins:
Holding steady at 467 for now, but man she has been fluctuating like crazy the past week. iirc it was as low as 405 about a week or so ago
2.3% gain is not too shabby for earnings anticipation....of course, the real price action, up or down, will happen after the closing bell
been watching the charts...everytime it starts to dip, the dips get bought up
Therefore, the ex-post share price performance of Nvidia when it announces its fiscal Q2 earnings … is likely again to play a key determinant in the performance of the leading Nasdaq 100 in the remaining months of 2023 which will likely have a spillover effect throughout the global equities space as well,” analyst Kelvin Wong of broker Oanda wrote in a Wednesday note.
The main concern for investors is that expectations may be too high. Nvidia needs to beat—probably significantly beat—expectations to keep momentum behind the stock, which trades at a valuation of 237 times last year’s earnings. The bullish view is that the growth outlook over AI could be so good as to warrant a fundamental review of the valuation based on forward earnings projections.
Nevertheless, “Nvidia now faces a higher bar of overcoming such highly optimistic expectations than before during the prior May 2023 earnings release,” Wong noted. “Any minuscule disappointment in Q2 earnings numbers and or outlook trend is likely to trigger a significant negative feedback loop in the share price of Nvidia that may jeopardize the current bullish trend of the Nasdaq 100.”
Yeah it’s been wild, I only have a pittance invested in NVDA unfortunately. I just put most of my eggs in the LAC basket when it dropped below 16.50 last week. Hoping it hits 200 by 2027
Truth disclosure: I bought put spreads this morning at $100 each with a strike price of 450.Yeah it’s been wild, I only have a pittance invested in NVDA unfortunately. I just put most of my eggs in the LAC basket when it dropped below 16.50 last week. Hoping it hits 200 by 2027
Im betting that in the short term, NVDIA's over reliance on Tiawan semiconductor could stifle their plans for growth in 2024.
All we need is one piece of negative news, ie TESLA...beating earnings but negative perceived guidance, for this stock to collapse
growing along the moving day average is pretty normal......we are currently at 2.9% growth for the day.
Next ceiling is at 472. Those big green bars are a big boy buying. I wonder if they know something?
Hope the AI bubble bursts so we ever get decently priced gpus again. $500 for an RTX 4060 Ti 16GB is lunacy when that card is more like a 50 series card historically by how much it has been cut down vs the flagship. 50 series card was like $150 until ing ether allowed the wholly unimpressive RTX 3050 to go for a $300 MSRP.
Just getting started imo. This is why NVIDIA is the AI game right now. Them and Tiawan semi are tied at the hip
48 minutes to place your bets.
Pump or dump?
Last edited by Nbadan; 08-23-2023 at 02:32 PM.
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