Biden will win the election in 2024

[hater]

Not mutually exclusive.

Biden being senile and incompetent and Trump being a big time let down like the 2016 Golden State Warriors are not mutually exclusive, either.

doesnt mattter

I agree Trump is dog as president

but lemming democrat losers can't agree that Biden is also dog

they refuse to agree to that

[Will Hunting]

I know polls are schizo but at some point we can't write off poll after poll that has Trump winning the popular vote when no polls in 2016 or 2020 ever did.

IMO Biden is in trouble. A lot can change between now and when voting starts, but every time I hear Biden talk he sounds like he's near death.

[hater]

I know polls are schizo but at some point we can't write off poll after poll that has Trump winning the popular vote when no polls in 2016 or 2020 ever did.

IMO Biden is in trouble. A lot can change between now and when voting starts, but every time I hear Biden talk he sounds like he's near death.

Father Time is a bigger danger to Genocide Joe than Trump or Polls

[clambake]

For mindless lemmings, I suggest you take a gander of the Ukraine thread lol

Hater lol

[hater]

For mindless lemmings, I suggest you take a gander of the Ukraine thread lol

"Ukraine is winning"





Ok lemming

[clambake]

"Ukraine is winning"





Ok lemming

lol stupid hater


Let’s go to page 1 of the Ukraine thread. Your epic fail from the beginning is, uh, epic lol

[hater]

lol stupid hater


Let’s go to page 1 of the Ukraine thread. Your epic fail from the beginning is, uh, epic lol

Nothing wrong with page one clown

Next...

[clambake]

Nothing wrong with page one clown

Next...

Ha ha what a joke! Says page one is good!


Amazingly stupid hater. Epic

[hater]

Ha ha what a joke! Says page one is good!


Amazingly stupid hater. Epic

Page 1 is great

So are pages 2,3,4,5,6,7

You're one dumb moda a

[clambake]

This person is fun

[Millennial_Messiah]

I know polls are schizo but at some point we can't write off poll after poll that has Trump winning the popular vote when no polls in 2016 or 2020 ever did.

IMO Biden is in trouble. A lot can change between now and when voting starts, but every time I hear Biden talk he sounds like he's near death.

Here's an excellent prediction and analysis:




He's now finally coming to grips with what I've been saying and posting all over the internet including this board for the last 3 years, that Pennsylvania is going to vote to the left of Michigan for the first time since 1992, and that's probably going to be the new normal. Michigan inherently has more Ohio and Indiana DNA than the other states. Michigan has a lot more room for the GOP to grow in rural and demographically favorable exurban areas outside Detroit, both within Wayne County and also Macomb, plus likely flipping the Youngstown-esque white working class union heavy I-75 belt and Muskegon, whereas the GOP is maxed out in the rural areas of PA and can only expand in the Pittsburgh exurbs, NE PA (but Scranton Joe and Scranton Bob won't lose their home county), and Erie County, while the very high population, multiracial, and highly educated white-collar Philly collar counties especially Bucks County zooming to the left more than offsets all of that.

Especially with Bob Casey on the ticket, I never believed for one minute that Biden was going to lose Pennsylvania, as much as Red Eagle Politics and others have been trying to wishcast that to happen.

I can see why LTE has Trump winning Arizona, and that might end up ultimately deciding the election. Right now I'd say very very narrow tilt blue like 2020 or 2022 governor, but Trump can flip it back. I think lean margin might be too generous to Trump. If Lake loses to Gallego, Trump loses AZ.

If Biden can win PA and Nevada and win very narrowly even by the skin of his loose teeth in Arizona and Wisconsin, he doesn't need either Georgia or Michigan nor the popular vote to win re-election.

Recall that the GOP won the popular vote in the 2022 midterms, yet the Democrats gained a Senate seat and overperformed in the House.

[Will Hunting]

Here's an excellent prediction and analysis:




He's now finally coming to grips with what I've been saying and posting all over the internet including this board for the last 3 years, that Pennsylvania is going to vote to the left of Michigan for the first time since 1992, and that's probably going to be the new normal. Michigan inherently has more Ohio and Indiana DNA than the other states. Michigan has a lot more room for the GOP to grow in rural and demographically favorable exurban areas outside Detroit, both within Wayne County and also Macomb, plus likely flipping the Youngstown-esque white working class union heavy I-75 belt and Muskegon, whereas the GOP is maxed out in the rural areas of PA and can only expand in the Pittsburgh exurbs, NE PA (but Scranton Joe and Scranton Bob won't lose their home county), and Erie County, while the very high population, multiracial, and highly educated white-collar Philly collar counties especially Bucks County zooming to the left more than offsets all of that.

Especially with Bob Casey on the ticket, I never believed for one minute that Biden was going to lose Pennsylvania, as much as Red Eagle Politics and others have been trying to wishcast that to happen.

I can see why LTE has Trump winning Arizona, and that might end up ultimately deciding the election. Right now I'd say very very narrow tilt blue like 2020 or 2022 governor, but Trump can flip it back. I think lean margin might be too generous to Trump. If Lake loses to Gallego, Trump loses AZ.

If Biden can win PA and Nevada and win very narrowly even by the skin of his loose teeth in Arizona and Wisconsin, he doesn't need either Georgia or Michigan nor the popular vote to win re-election.

Recall that the GOP won the popular vote in the 2022 midterms, yet the Democrats gained a Senate seat and overperformed in the House.

We've talked about this before but Youtubers like LTE and RedEaglePolitics are in the business of making predictions that generate clicks more than making accurate predictions.

The best pollster from 2022 (Marist) released a poll today that had Biden +2 nationally, while TIPP (the best pollster from 2020) has Trump polling +2 nationally right now. Part of that as I said is Biden losing a lot of margin in safe blue states, but if the popular vote is anywhere near even, Trump win the EC going away.

As for Arizona there are just a lot of things working against Trump now. There several election laws on the books the AZ GOP passed that are now backfiring that I don't feel like getting into detail on but just one example, Biden is going to be listed first on the ballot in Maricopa county this year (he wasn't in 2020) and there are studies that swings as much as 1-2% of the vote.

The Hispanics in Arizona are also more liberal than the Hispanics pretty much everywhere else in the country sans California, while Biden's strongest demographic (the suburban wine mom) is what controls elections in Arizona.

[Millennial_Messiah]

We've talked about this before but Youtubers like LTE and RedEaglePolitics are in the business of making predictions that generate clicks more than making accurate predictions.

The best pollster from 2022 (Marist) released a poll today that had Biden +2 nationally, while TIPP (the best pollster from 2020) has Trump polling +2 nationally right now. Part of that as I said is Biden losing a lot of margin in safe blue states, but if the popular vote is anywhere near even, Trump win the EC going away.

As for Arizona there are just a lot of things working against Trump now. There several election laws on the books the AZ GOP passed that are now backfiring that I don't feel like getting into detail on but just one example, Biden is going to be listed first on the ballot in Maricopa county this year (he wasn't in 2020) and there are studies that swings as much as 1-2% of the vote.

The Hispanics in Arizona are also more liberal than the Hispanics pretty much everywhere else in the country sans California, while Biden's strongest demographic (the suburban wine mom) is what controls elections in Arizona.

This (CA/NY/NJ will zoom red compared to 2020, but they will still be double digit victories for Biden), and the GOP likely to improve over 2020 and 2016 in Texas and in Florida. Before this Abbott/border stuff I'd say Texas was in line to vote about similiar to where it was in 2016, but now I'm thinking Trump + 11, similar to Abbott 2022 margin but with a very slightly different map with a redder RGV and slightly bluer suburbs, but not by much.

I don't think it's out of the question that Biden can lose the popular vote and win the election narrowly at the ECV level, if you consider a R+11 Texas, R+17 Florida, D+14 New York, D+18 California, D+8 New Jersey, D+9 Illinois, D+0.2 Arizona, D+0.1 Wisconsin, R+1.4 Michigan, D+0.8 Pennsylvania, D+1.0 Nevada, R+14 Ohio, R+4ish GA/NC. Wouldn't that be the funniest case scenario? Trump would be SEETHING!!

I agree with you on the Arizona stuff. I foresee both Biden and Gallego winning by a tilt margin. Lake will be seething.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

making November predictions off of February polls.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting what's your current election forecast map though, at least in terms of the swing states? I don't see an easy pathway to 270 for Trump regardless of if he wins the popular vote by winning more voters in big blue states and big red states. I don't see Trump flipping back either Arizona or Pennsylvania, for starters. I don't buy into the hype that Nevada will flip, either. Trump would have to win Georgia and Michigan which IMO he does, but Wisconsin is a pure toss up imo and it's definitely bluer than it should be. The GOP voter base there lacks the spine that it does across the lake in Michigan or Ohio. I've known Wisconsinites pretty well over the years and they generally could care less about politics, except for the liberal base on the college campuses. It's why the left always overperforms there.

[koriwhat]

Father Time is a bigger danger to Genocide Joe than Trump or Polls

I can't wait until father time choke holds him 6ft under dirt.

[ElNono]

I know polls are schizo but at some point we can't write off poll after poll that has Trump winning the popular vote when no polls in 2016 or 2020 ever did.

IMO Biden is in trouble. A lot can change between now and when voting starts, but every time I hear Biden talk he sounds like he's near death.

Sorry, but Dennison isn't winning the popular vote. I'm also quite honestly surprised how much Old Joe is smoking guys like Phillips.

But popular vote ultimately doesn't matter. I'm on the record my main concern this year is that he makes it alive to the election, which is not a given, tbh.

[RandomGuy]

Biden's going to win the electoral college by winning PA and squeaking out AZ, NV, and WI, though losing GA and MI..., the Senate will finish 50-50 as Tester and Brown and the other swing state Dems hold, and the Democrats will flip the House and have a narrow trifecta.

Discuss.

RNC is spending all its cash on yam 's legal bills.

Biden gonna mop the floor with him.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Sorry, but Dennison isn't winning the popular vote. I'm also quite honestly surprised how much Old Joe is smoking guys like Phillips.

But popular vote ultimately doesn't matter. I'm on the record my main concern this year is that he makes it alive to the election, which is not a given, tbh.

At that point it becomes a feature though. Old Joe is establishment through and through but the GOP is terrified of Harris pulling another LBJ with his New Society. Tragedy allows for a lot of carpe diem to the successor.

[Millennial_Messiah]

At that point it becomes a feature though. Old Joe is establishment through and through but the GOP is terrified of Harris pulling another LBJ with his New Society. Tragedy allows for a lot of carpe diem to the successor.

*Great Society - not "New Society" - you're getting New Deal and Great Society confused, tbh. No biggie.

Harris is unelectable especially in the rust belt. Biden will win PA imo, not sold on him winning either of the other two, but Harris would get pulverized there. It'd be an embarrassment. NY and NJ would be within <10%. New Hampshire back in play. She may lose New Mexico and/or Minnesota. She'd set the Democrat Party back big time in general; a Harris-Trump presidential top of the ticket race would be cancer down ballot. You'd be looking at a reverse-2008, red-maelstrom bloodbath. Something like a 57-43 GOP Senate majority and 245-190 GOP House majority.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

*Great Society - not "New Society" - you're getting New Deal and Great Society confused, tbh. No biggie.

Harris is unelectable especially in the rust belt. Biden will win PA imo, not sold on him winning either of the other two, but Harris would get pulverized there. It'd be an embarrassment. NY and NJ would be within <10%. New Hampshire back in play. She may lose New Mexico and/or Minnesota. She'd set the Democrat Party back big time in general; a Harris-Trump presidential top of the ticket race would be cancer down ballot. You'd be looking at a reverse-2008, red-maelstrom bloodbath. Something like a 57-43 GOP Senate majority and 245-190 GOP House majority.

I hope you know I do not read your ty polling spam and guesses masquerading as estimates. Have not for awhile.

You are desperate to win a point of fact. That is the most telling thing of your post.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I hope you know I do not read your ty polling spam and guesses masquerading as estimates. Have not for awhile.

You are desperate to win a point of fact. That is the most telling thing of your post.

The bottom line is that it is objective reality that Harris is much more Ford than LBJ electorally if Biden croaks (I'd argue she's much worse than Ford, electorally). If Biden doesn't croak, he's the nominee. Plain and simple. He isn't even getting impeached, and if he does narrowly, there's 51 guaranteed nay votes to convict and expel plus at least 3 other very possible nay votes in the Senate. Similar goes for a potential 25th Amendment argument. Sorry to the conspiracy theorists, he isn't getting replaced this year by Gavin or "Big Mike" (a stupid but hilarious alt-right meme of its own).

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The bottom line is that it is objective reality that Harris is much more Ford than LBJ electorally if Biden croaks (I'd argue she's much worse than Ford, electorally). If Biden doesn't croak, he's the nominee. Plain and simple. He isn't even getting impeached, and if he does narrowly, there's 51 guaranteed nay votes to convict and expel plus at least 3 other very possible nay votes in the Senate. Similar goes for a potential 25th Amendment argument. Sorry to the conspiracy theorists, he isn't getting replaced this year by Gavin or "Big Mike" (a stupid but hilarious alt-right meme of its own).

Nice text blob of wishful thinking.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Nice text blob of wishful thinking.

The most intelligent (I'd argue, possibly only intelligent, definitely the most objective) left-leaning poster on this forum is Will Hunting , & I'm sure he'd agree with me on all of those points.

IMO me, Mark Celibate / bump, and will hunting/dok, would make a great three way political radio talk podcast... obviously dok would represent the pragmatic left, i'd represent the pragmatic right, and bump would represent the center who has different opinions on different topics and is more libertarian than anything.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The most intelligent (I'd argue, possibly only intelligent) left-leaning poster on this forum is Will Hunting , & I'm sure he'd agree with me on all of those points.

Bandwagoning. Nice.

Really what I get from this wishful thinking narrative that you are worried about Harris so I am satisfied. You will have to excuse me if I do not find any credibility in your wishcasting and pseudo-polling.