Should have saved it, but someone posted the schools/leagues that factored into a first round pick's success. It might have been lottery picks. A Kentucky player was more likely to succeed than average. A Syracuse or Kansas player less likely.
The factor that by far raised a prospect's success was if their father played in the NBA.
I suspect this is because they know the ins and outs, what it takes on a daily basis, among other things (likelihood of childhood training).
That said, my enthusiasm for Carter depends on getting Castle, because I think their skillsets overlap well. Timvp makes a good point that Carter alone is awkward, as he's an undersized SG.

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