.... and so improbable that enough things will go right, and remain right, permanently, so the US can retreat. forever the assholes who lied us into this ing bull war.
I've run across this idea before, where the Iraqi Army will be useless and dangerous if the Iraqi govt isn't strong enough and competent enough to make the Iraqi Army believe the govt is worth fighting and dying for.
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January 6, 2006
Iraq Facing Hurdles, U.S. General Warns
By ERIC SCHMITT
CAMP VICTORY, Iraq, Jan. 4 - The top American operational commander in Iraq has offered a sober assessment of the hurdles facing a new Iraqi government, voicing concerns that sectarian rivalries and incompetence could cripple major ministries and turn newly American-trained Iraqi security forces into militias for hire.
The commander, Lt. Gen. John R. Vines of the Army, warned in an interview on Wednesday that the development of the Defense and Interior Ministries that sustain Iraqi security forces lags behind the fielding and prowess of more than 220,000 Iraqi soldiers and police officers.
"The ability of the ministries to support them, to pay them, to resupply them, provide them with water, ammunition, spare parts and weapons is not as advanced as the competence of the forces in the field," General Vines said at his headquarters here outside of Baghdad, as a new wave of violence gripped Iraq this week. "We must make significant progress in that area before they can conduct independent operations."
General Vines cautioned that other important ministries, like oil and electricity, must also strengthen their operations for the security forces to succeed - and for Iraq to prosper politically and economically.
"The reason it's important to look at areas like governance and infrastructure is because oil is the lifeblood of Iraq," said General Vines, who commands the XVIII Airborne Corps at Fort Bragg, N.C. "If they don't produce enough income to support their security forces, members of those forces could turn to ulterior purposes and could become militias or armed gangs."
The comments by General Vines, who formerly commanded Special Operations Forces in Somalia and all American troops in Afghanistan, offer perhaps the bluntest public assessment yet by a senior military officer about the challenges facing the American-led military coalition and the fledgling Iraqi government in the coming months.
General Vines cited a string of notable successes over the past year, including the building of the Iraqi security forces into a growing number of units that are taking the lead in securing the country and successfully holding two elections and one referendum in 2005.
But he also warned of potential trouble in the weeks and months ahead, as Sunni Arabs look to a Shiite-dominated government for signs that their voices and needs will be addressed.
General Vines said the fact that Iraqis voted in such large numbers on Dec. 15 was uplifting, but he lamented that the balloting broke down largely along religious and ethnic lines. "The vote is reported to be primarily along sectarian lines, which is not particularly heartening," he said. "There was enormous enthusiasm for the election. But it must be a government by and for Iraqis, not sects. I don't think we can know that yet."
General Vines said it is too soon to gauge how well Sunni Arabs, Shiites and Kurds will succeed in forging an inclusive government that protects all citizens of Iraq. "As the government forms, if we see indicators that there are purges of competent people to be replaced with ideologues in the security ministries, that would be disturbing," he said. "If competent commanders were to be replaced by those whose main qualification is an allegiance to a sect, that would be of concern to us."
At the urging of American commanders and civilian officials, the Iraqi Ministry of Defense has stepped up the recruiting of Sunni Arabs to serve in an army that is now dominated largely by Shiite and Kurdish soldiers. "The M.O.D. must continue to be perceived as a force that protects the population, as opposed to oppressing it," General Vines said. "This is a reason we're watching what happens at the M.O.D. very carefully."
As the operational commander for more than 150,000 American troops and 20,000 coalition forces, General Vines has day-to-day oversight, along with his Iraqi counterparts, over what troops here call the battle space around the country.
In the past several months, General Vines said that the flow of foreign fighters infiltrating Iraq had diminished in part because of nearly 20,000 Iraqi forces now stationed in restive Anbar Province, a series of American military operation in the Euphrates River Valley and increased cooperation from Syria and Saudi Arabia in tightening border controls.
( that's good news, but I've seen estimates that the number of foreigners in in insurgency (estimated at 10K - 20K insurgents) was only 5% to 10%. So even with all foreigners stopped, there's still plent of Iraqui/Sunni insurgents)
In the weeks leading up to the December election, however, General Vines differed with his boss, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the overall American commander in Iraq, over how and where to assign troops to ensure a peaceful and successful balloting.
According to interviews with several senior Army officers, who were granted anonymity because their bosses' discussions were confidential, General Casey wanted to build up operations along the border between Iraq and Syria, as well as the Euphrates River Valley, to make it harder for suicide bombers to infiltrate and explode themselves in Baghdad during the elections.
But General Vines and his field commanders said the center of gravity was Baghdad and its predominantly Sunni suburbs like Falluja, the officers said. General Vines wanted to position more forces there to increase the Sunni turnout, a major political goal of the Bush administration but also a means to help reduce the insurgency.
The two commanders eventually worked out a compromise to put troops in both places, the senior officers said.
I say we stay out of the Middle East entirely.... no more oil.... no more problems....
I'd rather pay 3.50$ per gallon of gasoline than pay with the blood of soldiers dying for a cause that is not appreciated by those benefitting from "freedom & liberty".
We publically declare that we want no more Islamic altercations and stay out of Israel vs. The Arab World part 1,454,359. But we also tell them.... to stay out of the U.S. I'm sorry. Extreme measures certainly seem to be required.
We won't be harboring any muslims who may possibly adopt a belligerent stance against the US while living in the US. Just visit your typical Muslim Student Association in our very own universities to see that 75% of them harbor "anti-U.S." sentiments. Most of them hold these views because of our current foreign policy, but at least a third of them harbor blatant hate toward Israel. Who knows what impact it would have on the ideology of these groups if those policies did change.
We stay out of Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Yemen, Pakistan, the Philipines, Uzbekistan, Algeria, Libya, Morrocco, etc... NO MORE military presence in their area... NO MORE Red Cross Aid in the event of Natural disasters, no more nothing. Just an embassy to guide tourists... And in the case where one Arab bullied on another... let them wipe themselves out. OR LEAVE IT TO THE U.N.
I think we have a bigger fish to worry about anyway with N. Korea.
yes no more cheap oil.. our economy crashes... just that simple .. in times of war you protect your strategic energy supplies.. want to bring the US to it's knee.. yes we are fighting for oil.. I will always be the first to admit that... because our economy is drunk on cheap oil..
Not necessarily... the billions and billions of dollars that we're spending for our millitary would then be redirected at promoting/developing better green energy sources.... And don't be fooled by the published figures of our very own "reserves".
I say we make peace with Venezuela and Mexico (2nd and 4th largest Oil Reserves in the world respectively outside of the Middle East) At least then, we would be staying out of a 1400-yr old religious conflict. And they would not feel inclined to attack us anymore.
Leave it to the UN ? did I just read that right ? leave it to the oil-for-food thieves, the most corrupt organization on the planet ? the UN ?
You are fool enough to think that Isolationism is the answer ? You believe that if we stay out of the middle east ( which we can't do based on our alliance with Israel among other things) that we will be left alone ? You believe that ? If we just stay in the US - get our oil from MExico and Venezuela ( Curious to know how you are going to make peave with Chavez who is as loco as Kim Jong Il). Why don't we just tap into Alaska and Utah ? - oh but then we would be hurting the environment right ?
Dude get real the wahabbists want you dead - they want america dead -- Asia ( China, Korea and Japan) want us gone.....
I know it's radical.... but after 60 years of trying to promote the ideals of democracy around the world other cultures simply don't want to embrace it. We earn the ire of every 3rd world country instead... To those ungrateful countries, fine... we'll just diminish our activity and involvement with their country (as opposed to severing all ties).
Whenever we can address many of the social domestic ills I think we will be stronger as a nation and be better positioned to help those that want our help. Instead we futilely dilute our efforts and resources in places where our presence is seen with disdain instead of with trust and gratefulness. Again, our Defense budget is outrageous. And 'war' only adds to the burden, due to the benefits that are properly given (and earned by) the countless of veterans and disabled veterans that return from war.
You are right about the U.N., that whole en y needs people who are genuinely concerned about the wellfair of the world's nations instead of power and money. Those people are a rare breed and hard to find.... plus most that satisfy those requisites choose to stay out of the political world anyway.
And Chavez holds a grudge against Bush's Administration but even he will see the benefits to this partnership... perhaps turn-over a new leaf (not likely but possible).
As for the environment... There are cleaner ways of extracting petroleum from the ground... and given the fact that I had mentioned the government should divert the grossly ridiculous defense budget... I don't see why they couldn't subsidize better technologies for this cause with less environmental impact.
I wouldn't necessarily call this true "Isolationism" per sé.... It's a modified version that would allow us to fix the problems that are causing our own nation to crumble apart. Again, ONLY then will we be stronger.
As for our pact with Israel... that might be our only bargaining chip with the Middle East....
"We will pull out all of our forces from all Muslim Nations and quit meddling with your politics if you can agree to quit trying to wipe Israel off the Map. You have as much claim to Jerusalem as they do. Can't you all just get along?"
^^^ A bit delusional I know, but it just might work for a few years....
You mean the Republican controlled national government?
that's them
But freedom over tyranny will win out. At least it's a fighting chance.
I'll agree a lot can go wrong. But I belive that Iraqi's want and will fight for democracy.
The elections showed the people came out in droves.
This maybe happen in a few years or a long time. But this is the cradle of civilization that's never been "civil".. or self ruled.
Saddam was bad and talked to much smack.
I think Tarik Aziz was a big problem for Saddam.
All Saddam had to do was apologize to Kuwait and keep his mouth shut about America.
But everyday Saddam and Aziz and later the spokesman dude haha..
Kept saying America would burn.. pay the price.. streets with blood etc.
Them's fightin words.
Reguardless yes there is danger it could go wrong. But that's the price of freedom. Risk takers reap more rewards..
Look at Kuwait as an example. We spilled American blood for it... and it's oil.
And now it's a model of peace and modern Islam. Women can drive and own businesses. The schools now teach a more moderate version of Koran.
You could go there today and vacation and if your polite the people of Kuwait will treat you really good.
It's all about sitting down and breaking bread.
Sometimes a Soldier or a Marine get's invited to a house or is served tea and food outside by Iraqi's.
They will tell them thank you but they are afraid of Saddam and insurgency. So there is a silent crowd. Not everyone is going to lock and load an AK and fight insurgents..
Right now there is a fresh UN mandate and UN monitored elections look good.
So the world.. and Germany.. Spain should be in there helping freedom.
Look at Poland they stayed this year.. Why? Because UN and Iraqi's asked them to and
they know the taste of Freedom VS the Boot of Commies.
It's important to fight for freedom today... before evil of twisted Islam spreads.
Bush also has really worked hard since 9/11 to say and support moderate peacefull Islam.
Bush get's NO credit right now for his work in the Pakistan / India quake.
We have hospitals and troops deployed unarmed there. And they are making a LOT of friends. Pakistan public opion is now warming to America. Don't forget they saved our asses in Somalia too with there Armor carriers picked up surrounded Army troopers.
Whose blog was that copied from?
Yoni's
Oh Gee!! is the man.
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