Questioning US arrest statistics
By Scott Christianson
SAND LAKE, N.Y. - Policing in the United States has changed a lot during the past 50 years. Higher education and training requirements have led to greater police professionalism, and most departments' ranks have benefited from huge increases of personnel, stunning technological advancements, forensics breakthroughs, and affirmative action policies that presumably have led to a more representative workforce sensitive to civil rights. Policing's academic side has also prospered from decades of ample government research grants.
Many observers credit the police because reported crime in the nation has generally been going down for nearly a decade. Reported homicides in New York City and other jurisdictions recently hit their lowest level in more than 40 years.
But discussions of police performance often fail to note another important but overlooked trend, apparently unrelated to the falling crime rate: Federal statistics reveal that the nation's "clearance rate" - the percentage of cases for which police arrest or identify a suspect - has fallen dramatically. And this shift is fraught with implications.
The arrest clearance rate for reported homicides recently dropped to about 60 percent compared with about 90 percent 50 years ago. This means that a murderer today has about a 40 percent chance of avoiding arrest compared with less than 10 percent in 1950. The record for other FBI Index Crimes is even more dismal: The clearance rates have sunk to 42 percent for forcible rape, 26 percent for robbery, and 13 percent for burglary and motor vehicle theft, all way down from earlier eras.
In Boston, the homicide clearance rate plummeted to only 28 percent in 2004 - a shocking development for a city that gained lavish praise for crime reductions in the 1990s.
Judging a police department or the criminal justice system as a whole based simply on arrest statistics wouldn't be wise, for the police can and do fulfill many crucial functions in our society, such as maintaining public order and helping to protect citizens from terrorist attack. But ignoring measures of how the police deal with reported serious crime isn't smart either.
It's not that America's cops haven't been making arrests - in fact, their total annual arrests jumped from 3.3 million in the nation in 1960 to 14 million in 2004, a staggering number that helps to explain why the United States imprisons more of its citizens than any other country in the world.
So, if reported crime has been going down and arrests have gone up, what accounts for the plummeting arrest clearance rates for murder, robbery, rape, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft?
Part of the answer must involve drug law enforcement - victimless offenses that aren't reported to the police or included as FBI Index Crimes. Instead of arresting suspects for burglaries and other serious reported crimes, cops today spend much of their energy going after illegal drugs. Their arrest rate for drug possession (especially marijuana) has shot up more than 500 times from what it was in 1965.
And what are some possible implications of this shift?
For one thing, it may give criminals the impression they can get away with nondrug related crimes.
For another, it may lessen public support for the police. Polls show those who live in "high crime" neighborhoods are generally the most dissatisfied with the police. Maybe this is because they have reported to the police that they have been victimized by robbery and other serious crimes, then witnessed that the police are not arresting anyone for it but are instead aggressively waging a "war on drugs" in the community.
Nevertheless, the matter of falling arrest clearance rates hasn't received much scrutiny from the police or the public.
Asked why the arrest clearance rate has dropped so much, one leading police scholar, Professor David Bayley of the State University of New York at Albany, said, "I haven't a clue. I've been involved in the field for 40 years and best as I can tell, nobody has even raised this stuff. Hearing about it now is like being hit by a bus."
One interpretation might be that the changing statistics actually indicate that today's police are acting more judiciously, for as one former New York Police Department homicide detective, now a private investigator, put it, "Just because cops were more likely to arrest somebody in the old days than they are today doesn't mean they didn't make a lot of mistakes back then, by beating false confessions out of innocent people and such."
Whatever the reasons, this significant trend in the police response to reported crime should prompt some serious discussion about contemporary law enforcement's priorities and effectiveness.
• Scott Christianson, a former New York state criminal justice official, is the author of several books about crime and punishment.
"I haven't a clue. I've been involved in the field for 40 years and best as I can tell, nobody has even raised this stuff. Hearing about it now is like being hit by a bus."
Such high-order, top-level, bullet-point stats are unworthy of the attention of "police scholars" ?
I much rather have a marijuana user out on the streets than a rapist or murderer.
I think they'll eventually find that the manner in which crimes, arrests, and dispositions are reported have changed...and maybe not at the same rate or in the same manner.
Investigating/arresting agencies reporting is much more advanced than is judicial.
Just a hunch. But, it could explain the difference.
And still I see no changes
can't a brother get a little peace
It's war on the streets & the war in the Middle East
Instead of war on poverty they got a war on drugs
so the police can bother me
I too would rather have child molesters and rapists in jail than some dude smoking some weed.
BBC NEWS
UK ships seize £350m cocaine haul
UK ships have seized one of the largest ever drug hauls after a high-speed operation netted three-and-a-half tonnes of cocaine in the Caribbean.
The drugs had a street value of £350m ($620m), the Ministry of Defence said.
The raid, on a cargo ship off the coast of Miami, was carried out by the Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary using HMS Southampton and RFA Grey Rover.
In October, the Royal Navy seized a then record two tonnes of cocaine worth £200m off the coast of Nicaragua.
Defence Secretary John Reid praised the work of the crews who carried out Wednesday's raid.
"This is another great success for the Royal Navy in countering the trafficking of illegal drugs, which destroy the lives of families in the United Kingdom and around the world," he said.
"The professional crews of HMS Southampton and RFA Grey Rover deserve huge credit for dealing another massive blow to the drug barons that would attack our society."
Pincer movement
After the cargo ship was spotted, HMS Southampton broke off from refuelling and led the charge at nearly 30 knots to corner the MV Rampage in a surprise pincer movement with the tanker, RFA Grey Rover.
A Lynx helicopter from HMS Southampton intercepted the alleged drug runners as the ships appeared over the horizon.
A spokesman said: "The vessel, MV Rampage, which had apparently earlier had a different name, was taken completely by surprise, as boarding teams from both Southampton and Grey Rover swooped in by fast rigid inflatable boat at sunset.
"After a search of the vessel, a large number of cocaine bales were discovered, packed in a forward section."
HMS Southampton had been working closely with the United States Coastguard and Royal Netherlands Navy authorities.
The success of this seizure will send a clear message of determination to stop the smuggling of illegal drugs - and we are good at it.
Commander Rob Vitali
The cargo ship and her crew are currently being held by the US Coastguard Authority, based in Miami.
Commander Rob Vitali, HMS Southampton's Commanding Officer, said: "This was a particularly well co-ordinated operation.
"The success of this seizure will send a clear message of determination to stop the smuggling of illegal drugs - and we are good at it.
"Southampton has had a busy operational time, with the ship's recent involvement in two search-and-rescue incidents.
"However, it just shows that our presence here in the Caribbean has been extremely worthwhile. The success of this incident highlights the benefits of international and joint collaboration against drug smuggling."
The Royal Navy destroyer and RFA Grey Rover have been on a five-month tour which has taken in West Africa, the Falkland Islands, Brazil and the Caribbean.
Their primary mission in the Caribbean is the security of British Overseas Territories - including helping with disaster relief - but anti-drugs work forms "a major part" of their daily work, according to the Royal Navy.
Both ships are due to return to Britain at the end of this month when Grey Rover will be decommissioned.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/uk/4677038.stm
Published: 2006/02/03 12:01:56 GMT
© BBC MMVI
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