Separating Contenders From Pretenders

[jochhejaam]

True Gauge

There is a forumla NBA coaches and executives use to separate contenders from pretenders. The most important stats come playoff time are the ability to protect the home court and the ability to win on the road. By subtracting home losses from wins on the road you get what they consider the top rated teams for the playoffs. (paraphrased from an article in SI)

Detroit - 22 road wins and 2 home losses = 20

Spurs - 22 road wins and 4 home losses = 18

Dallas - 21 road wins and 5 home losses = 16

Miami - 17 road wins and 7 home losses = 10

Phoenix - 18 road wins and 9 home losses = 9

LAC - 15 road wins and 10 home losses = 5

Memph - 15 road wins and 10 home losses = 5

[Derek Fisher V0.4]

well at least one of my LA teams is in that group!!!

[Derek Fisher V0.4]

[Bruno]

There is a forumla NBA coaches and executives use to separate contenders from pretenders. The most important stats come playoff time are the ability to protect the home court and the ability to win on the road. By subtracting home losses from wins on the road you get what they consider the top rated teams for the playoffs.

I doubt that they use this formula :

- At the end of the season, the result of this formula will just be the number of win minus 41. It's not more meaningfull than the W-L record.

- During the season, this formula favors teams that have played more road games.
Just an example : Team A and B won 80% of their home games and 60% of their road games. They have the same level.
After 50 games, team A has played 20 games at home while team B has played 30 games at home :
Team A has 18 road win and 4 home loss = 12
Team B has 12 road win and 6 home loss = 6

A more acurate formula is the average between the home winning% and the road winning %.

Detroit - 81.0%
Spurs - 77.9%
Dallas - 77.4%
Phoenix - 68.9%
Miami - 66.1%
LAC - 59.4%
Memphis - 54.8%

This percentage gives you the most accurate simple projection for the team record at the end of the season (just multiplied it by 82 to have the number of win in the season).
You can have a better projection by using team trends, strength of the opponents, number of b2b, former results between teams... but it's too complicate.

[DarkReign]

Whoa whoa whoa!

That Spiderman pic! Is Spiderman 3 about the Venom suit?!

[jochhejaam]

I doubt that they use this formula :

- At the end of the season, the result of this formula will just be the number of win minus 41. It's not more meaningfull than the W-L record.

It's in the recent Sports Illustrated issue with Pictures of Red and Morrison on the cover, page 79. They may not use the formula but the article states that they do.
It's stressing the ability to protect home court and win on the road, seems rather meaningful to me.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

Whoa whoa whoa!

That Spiderman pic! Is Spiderman 3 about the Venom suit?!

It appears so, thats the official poster Its would have been awesome if it weren't for the fact that Tobey Maguire is on it. He sucks for that role. Oh and don't even get me started on Kirsten Dunst, she MONUMENTALLY SUCKS!

[JamStone]

The PLAYOFFS is what will separate the contenders from the pretenders.

[Bruno]

It's in the recent Sports Illustrated issue with Pictures of Red and Morrison on the cover, page 79. They may not use the formula but the article states that they do.
It's stressing the ability to protect home court and win on the road, seems rather meaningful to me.

At the end of the season W-L record and this formula is the same thing.
If they think that it's more meaningful, they are poor statisticians/mathematicians.

The proof of that :
x : number of win and the road
y : number of win at home

The win record is x+y.

The number of loss at the end of the season at home is 41-y (number of games played at home minus win)

This formula is x-(41-y), that is to say x+y-41, that is to say the number of win minus 41. This formula brings nothing at the end of the season.

I agree with you, it seems more meaningful but in fact it's the same thing than the W-L record.

And during the season it sucks too (see my example in my previous post).

I don't doubt that SI said that (I trust you, my post isn't against you but against SI and this formula) but I find that this formula is quite bad. I doubt that coaches and executives use it.

[mavsfan1000]

I guess injuries and fatigue have nothing to do with it.

[Bruno]

I guess injuries and fatigue have nothing to do with it.

[Rummpd]

The simple truth right now:

Pistons and Spurs - rest are pretenders until either get beat in a playoff series, these teams have won the last three championships.

[ShoogarBear]

As others have pointed out, at the end of the season, this formula is no different from overall W-L record.

Where the formula IS useful is during the season, where teams schedules aren't necessarily balanced. It helps to adjust for a team that may have a disproportionate number of home or road games at that point in time. It's not perfect of course, but is useful.

And it's not new. The first person I heard of using it was Doug Moe, the Spurs coach in the late 70s.