Next President Could Get to Reshape High Court
Political and legal experts said the next president could make several appointments over the next four years and could shift the balance of power on the closely divided court, which generally has been controlled by a 5-4 conservative majority.
Although the Supreme Court has not emerged as a major issue in the campaign, President Bush (news - web sites) and his Democratic rival, Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), have expressed sharply contrasting views on the type of judges they would appoint.
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Bush said at the Republican Convention in New York that he supports judges who strictly interpret the law, while Kerry has vowed to appoint judges who "protect our rights and liberties."
"The makeup of the Supreme Court could well be one of the next president's most lasting and far-reaching legacies," said Ralph Neas of the liberal advocacy group People for the American Way Foundation.
The conservative Family Research Council agreed. Its president, Tony Perkins, said the court's future composition was very important, even though it has been overshadowed as a campaign issue by the economy and the government's war on terrorism.
Bush has cited Justices Antonin Scalia (news - web sites) and Clarence Thomas (news - web sites), widely regarded as two of the court's most conservative members, as models for his appointments.
In contrast, Kerry in a recent Time magazine interview cited his Senate vote to confirm Scalia as one of his regrets. Referring to the November election, Kerry said, "The Supreme Court of the United States is at stake."
Although no one knows for sure whether there will be any vacancies over the next four years, legal experts said the odds of a retirement appear to be increasing, given the advancing age of the three oldest justices.
MOST STABILITY SINCE 1823
The last change in the court's composition took place more than 10 years ago with the confirmation of Justice Stephen Breyer (news - web sites). It has been the longest period of stability since 1823.
The experts said the most likely candidates to retire over the next four years would be the oldest justices -- Justice John Paul Stevens (news - web sites), 84; Chief Justice William Rehnquist (news - web sites), who turned 80 on Friday; and Justice Sandra Day O'Connor (news - web sites), 74.
"If and when someone leaves, politics will have a lot to do with it," Washington attorney Tom Goldstein said. Rehnquist and O'Connor would be more likely to leave if Bush wins while Stevens would be more inclined to depart if Kerry wins.
"I would think that all three will be around for a couple of years. They are not anxious to walk away from their job," said Goldstein, a court-watcher who has argued cases before the justices.
Rehnquist, Scalia and Thomas are the court's most conservative members, O'Connor and Justice Anthony Kennedy (news - web sites) are more moderate conservatives who often cast the decisive votes.
The court's more liberal faction consists of Justices Stevens, David Souter (news - web sites), Ruth Bader Ginsburg (news - web sites) and Breyer.
Possible Bush choices for the Supreme Court include federal appeals court judges Michael Luttig and J. Harvie Wilkinson of Virginia, Samuel Alito of New Jersey, Emilio Garza and Edith Jones of Texas and John Roberts in Washington.
Kerry's choices for the Supreme Court could include federal appeals court judges Sonia Sotomayor of New York, Jose Cabranes in Connecticut, Sandra Lynch in Boston and David Tatel and Merrick Garland in Washington.
Duke University law professor Erwin Chemerinsky said the nominees that either Bush or Kerry select could depend on what happens in the November elections in the Senate. Any Supreme Court nominees must be confirmed by the Senate.
it. I hope we get a president who believes in a "Cons ution that grows". All of you left wing nuts who want to about Ashcroft should look in the ing mirror and delight in the fact that the government is as large and intrusive as it is today. That didn't happen overnight.
IMHO, we shouldn't want a president who wants to push his religious beliefs on the rest of America.
Oh so let's have a president who will stick it to those with religious beliefs instead.
Oh so let's have a president who will stick it to those with religious beliefs instead.
Oh, of course. Religious persecution is rampant in this country, as long as you define that as not allowing religious people to run everyone ELSE'S life according to their beliefs.
Then why is free individual religious expression in the public space subject to such antagonism?
It's freedom of religion, not freedom from.
IMHO, I'm glad that the ban against same sex marriage failed again.
More the reason to vote for me.
Well, if that's what you want, then don't vote for Bush. Bush cites Scalia and Thomas as models for his appointments, but Scalia has been adamant for years that the Cons ution means only what it says and should not be viewed as an evolving or growing do ent. I'd say its an absolute slam dunk that Bush appointees are less likely to see the Cons ution as an evolving, living text.it. I hope we get a president who believes in a "Cons ution that grows".
And as for the issue of religion, Marcus, you might note that the Free Exercise clause permits people the freedom to practice their religion, but the Establishment clause prohibits the government from endorsing (whether tacitly or overtly) one religion over another or religion over non-religion. That's the tension you're seeing: the Supreme Court has been amazingly consistent about prohibiting religious exercise where the government is involved in the action, but has been amazingly protective of individual free exercise rights when the government is not involved. If you want a prayer said over a public school loudspeaker, it's not going to happen (based on the proper application of the Establishment Clause), but if you want school kids to be able to gather round the flagpole on their own time and accord, that's cons utionally protected (based on the proper application of the Free Exercise Clause).
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