What odds do you give the Spurs to win it in 7?

[50 cent]

Game 5 - 60%
Game 6 - 40%
Game 7 - 65%

Total = 15.6% chance

[Leetonidas]

It's a 50-50 thing if you think about it. The Spurs will either win, or they will lose.

[td4mvp21]

Game 5 is probable, if they don't act like they are down 3-1. Game 6 is unlikely, but Game 7 if we forced it would be favorable.

20% chance

[nkdlunch]

1 in 3

[SPARKY]

Win Game 5, then worry about Game 6.

[ducks]

game 5 90%
game 6 75%
game 7 90%

[SpursWoman]

I'm not even going to pretend I have a clue. I'll just be sitting back, cheering them on and popping the Rolaids.

[Trainwreck2100]

9-1

[ducks]

do you get a kick out of sex?

[snowboarder]

Win Game 5, then worry about Game 6.

yea game 6 will be the game that will tell the series

[pussyface]

TEXAS BALLA:"It's a 50-50 thing if you think about it. The Spurs will either win, or they will lose."

Hehe-I'm going to guess your not a statistician... I am hoping this is a joke...?
The odds of my sons grade school team beating the Heat is 50/50.

[Brutalis]

How could you possibly answer that?

[2centsworth]

Game 5= 40%
Game 6=80%
Game 7=100%


24% chance.

Game 5 is key then the odds jump up dramatically.

[exstatic]

1 chance in 10.

[Trainwreck2100]

TEXAS BALLA:"It's a 50-50 thing if you think about it. The Spurs will either win, or they will lose."

Hehe-I'm going to guess your not a statistician... I am hoping this is a joke...?
The odds of my sons grade school team beating the Heat is 50/50.

How could you possibly answer that?

Like this

[atxrocker]

1 in 275,000

[E20]

100%

[4001 STEREO SPUR]

100%

I'll second that.

100%

[jman3000]

70%
45%
85%

If the Spurs can raise their level of intensity and focus by just a little bit, I see things going well for them. The games have been super close (with the exception of game 2) and any rise in their level of play can result in a MUCH better result. Hopefully the crowd will have the same urgency that it had in the last game where the Spurs were facing elimination... game 7 of last years finals... which was an awesome crowd from 30 minutes before tipoff to hours after the final horn had sounded. Believe.

Spurs in 7

[unartested]

Slim and none.............

By the look on the faces after the last game I am not sure they believe they can do it???

[greyforest]

It's a 50-50 thing if you think about it. The Spurs will either win, or they will lose.

take statistics class

i think the original poster's numbers were probably pretty accurate.



COME ON 15%!!!1

[Darrin]

1000% Spurs win. Save the NBA from "small ball" and the sports writers that like the point totals and glamorous plays.

[J.T.]

Spurs 100%. As long as there is time left on the clock, the Spurs are still in it.

[Mavs<Spurs]

I understand what people are saying. It's does not look likely.


However, in this kind of scenario, we are not talking about random events which are unaffected by outside events... In other words, we are not talking about the roll of dice (so long as the dice are not weighted improperly) or the tossing of a coin.

In statistics, I believe that you will find that events such as this series are treated differently than those that are random. Maybe we could be a little kinder towards the other poster.

I'm not an expert in the area of statistics, but I am 6 mo.s from my master's in mathematics. It has come up some in other classes. I certainly could be wrong (this has not been a focus of my degrees in math), but the following is my understanding. Pascal, one of the key founders of probability, seemed to make similar statements to what the poster said. It is called Pascal's wager. Pascal was a pretty smart guy and considering his relationship to the field of probability, we might not jump all over this other poster.

Each situation is different. This Spurs team is playing this Mavs team in May 2006 in this situation exactly once and that is now. Applying what has happened to other teams with other players against different opposition is interesting. However, I do not believe it would be considered a mathematically rigorous proof if one wants to prove what the odds against the Spurs winning this series in 7 are by what happened in previous series with different teams.

I got really discouraged after the last loss (even during the game), but it's not completely over.


As I said earlier, not all 3-1 deficits are equal. Having 2 of the 3 games at home does make it easier than if 2 of the 3 remaining games were in Dallas.

If the Mavs could win 3 in a row against us, it does not appear unreasonable to think that we could do the same thing.

I am not the saying that I think that it is likely. However, in this current situation, there is some reason for hope (e.g. Tim Duncan).

I think that we will win game 5. Most people would expect that we will win game 5. In game 7, most people would favor us. Game 6 is the linch pin and we have been in both games in Dallas so far in this series.

Let's play the games and let the bookies deal with the probability issues.
Take them 1 at a time, believing that we can win the game we are playing.

Go Spurs!

[Hillcrest]

I understand what people are saying. It's does not look likely.


However, in this kind of scenario, we are not talking about random events which are unaffected by outside events... In other words, we are not talking about the roll of dice (so long as the dice are not weighted improperly) or the tossing of a coin.

In statistics, I believe that you will find that events such as this series are treated differently than those that are random. Maybe we could be a little kinder towards the other poster.

I'm not an expert in the area of statistics, but I am 6 mo.s from my master's in mathematics. It has come up some in other classes. I certainly could be wrong (this has not been a focus of my degrees in math), but the following is my understanding. Pascal, one of the key founders of probability, seemed to make similar statements to what the poster said. It is called Pascal's wager. Pascal was a pretty smart guy and considering his relationship to the field of probability, we might not jump all over this other poster.

Each situation is different. This Spurs team is playing this Mavs team in May 2006 in this situation exactly once and that is now. Applying what has happened to other teams with other players against different opposition is interesting. However, I do not believe it would be considered a mathematically rigorous proof if one wants to prove what the odds against the Spurs winning this series in 7 are by what happened in previous series with different teams.

I got really discouraged after the last loss (even during the game), but it's not completely over.


As I said earlier, not all 3-1 deficits are equal. Having 2 of the 3 games at home does make it easier than if 2 of the 3 remaining games were in Dallas.

If the Mavs could win 3 in a row against us, it does not appear unreasonable to think that we could do the same thing.

I am not the saying that I think that it is likely. However, in this current situation, there is some reason for hope (e.g. Tim Duncan).

I think that we will win game 5. Most people would expect that we will win game 5. In game 7, most people would favor us. Game 6 is the linch pin and we have been in both games in Dallas so far in this series.

Let's play the games and let the bookies deal with the probability issues.
Take them 1 at a time, believing that we can win the game we are playing.

Go Spurs!

Hear hear! Good post!