Is Devin Brown Poised For A Breakout Season?

[Kori Ellis]

This is the result of the second Battle Blog in it's final form. Jones (Man Mountain) won the Battle.

It is now in article form and up on WOAI's SpursZONE.com. Please PM timvp if you want to participate as a Blogger or a judge. Remember there's cash prize$ at the end of the season.

Brown: Poised For A Breakout Season?
LAST UPDATE: 10/13/2004 3:08:14 AM
Posted By: Kori Ellis

http://www.woai.com/spurs/story.aspx...E-C7938850E08E



We continue the SpursZONE.com series of Point/Counterpoint articles in which two people debate different aspects of Spurs basketball and the rest of the NBA.

In this edition, FullSportPress.com writer Joe Ruiz and Spurs fan Marcel Jones debate whether or not Devin Brown is poised for a breakout season.

Ruiz: Is Devin Brown poised for a breakout season?

In a short answer; yes.

But then, you didn’t read this for a short answer.

Devin Brown is well-known to those in San Antonio as the leading scorer in UT-San Antonio history, yet Brown announced his arrival to the world during last season’s Western Conference Semifinals as quite honestly the only Spur to stand on the deck as the ship sank.

Brown will not become the new Manu, but he will – if he’s not already – become the new spark off the bench that the Spurs will need over this long season. That’s not to take away from Brent Barry, but “Local Boy Does Good” always plays well in the headlines.

Brown’s increased minutes at the three spot will allow him to increase his scoring average, increase his defensive prowess and with his commitment this off-season to work on his all-around game, he has taken another step in the maturation process necessary to become the Spurs next big breakout player.

Some will eventually call for Brown to replace Bruce Bowen in the starting lineup this season, but Brown simply isn’t ready for the rigors of a starting role. I firmly believe that with the heart this young man displays on and off the court, Brown can increase his production as well ascend the ladder of fan favoritism.

Brown's athleticism, maturation and seemingly new-found work ethic can only speak volumes as to how high we will rise among the NBA's proven talent. Super-s om might be far off, but the young man from West Campus High School will reap the fruits of his labor soon enough.

Jones: All the points you prepared were fine and dandy, but you overlooked one intangible that all players require to blossom in the NBA -- playing time. Where is Brown going to get the minutes to attain this so-called “breakout season”?

Bruce Bowen averaged 32 minutes last season and while that number will undoubtedly be lowered, the Spurs’ defensive specialist shall play at least 28 minutes per game. Manu Ginobili averaged nearly 30 minutes last season and now that he is moving into a starting guard position, that number will rise. For the sake of this argument, I’ll put him down for 34 minutes. Tony Parker played approximately 35 minutes a contest last season and should continue to proceed at that level.

Off the bench, Brent Barry will average at least 30 minutes. The Spurs have invested heavily in their new bench stud and will play him at least that much. Head coach Gregg Popovich has informed those who listen that first round draft pick Beno Udrih will be thrown into the fire. I’ll put down a conservative 15 minutes per game for the rookie.

Although I don’t have a math degree, I can tell you that those reasonable projections add up to 142 minutes. Realizing that there are only 144 minutes to go around for the positions that Brown can play, my doubts on where the minutes will come from are justifiable. I would love to see a local boy hit it big but two minutes will not be enough.

Ruiz: Well, Brown's not going to get 30 minutes per game, I'll give you that, but he will have more than the 10+ he averaged last season.

I will go quickly through your minute distribution. Barry averaged 30 minutes per game in a year in which he started most of the games he played in. Devin's not going to play the point, either.

I don't expect Brown to become average 15/10. I expect him to increase him numbers off the bench to 10/5 from his 4/2 last season. I don't expect Brown to become the third scorer on the team. I expect that he will be the spark Manu was in his rookie season and most of last year. I expect that he will allow the Spurs to have a slightly more consistent scorer than they had last year, which can only allow for others to become better as Brown is not a two-bucket guy anymore.

Jones: What you said is fantastic but where are the minutes going to come from? I hate to harp on the same subject, but without the playing time Brown can’t arrive at the echelon you are suggesting he’ll reach.

I don’t have misgivings regarding his talent but unless there is an injury it just doesn’t add up. Brown was great in the playoffs and I’m sure that he’ll have his moments, but as of now he’s just a bit player that Popovich will turn to if he needs to jolt the squad that is on the court.

I hope Brown realizes the situation and is patient. He can learn on the bench and spark the team when it’s needed. As Bowen fades into the twilight of his career, that is when Brown will get his chance. His time will one day be here but that time is not now.

[toosmallshoes]

i know it's too late to win the blog... but of course jones is right. In Brown's second year out of UTSA playing behind the likes of Ginobili, Bowen and Barry, how could he hope to have a "break out" year. Doesn't a "break out" year mean a year during which you shatter your own expectations? He's young. He can score. He's learning defense by studying with Bowen. But come on. A break out year!!!???? Parker is going to have a break out year. It's a contract year after all. Brown is going to get his when he can and do well when he gets a chance... and other such kind of stuff along those lines. Give him a couple of years please. he will be good, but this year is not his break out year.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I never said Brown was going to be 15/10. I just expect that he will become more known to the national scene after his performance last year in the playoffs and his increased production this season.

[spurster]

I think Beno at 15 minutes/game is extremely optimistic. Also, Manu wil not get heavy minutes to begin with. I would guess the minutes would distribute more like:

PG: Parker 33, Barry 10, Beno 5
Swing: Bowen 30, Manu 30, Barry 15, Brown 15, LJ 6

[bigzak25]

assuming parker doesn't sign before the season,

the better beno does, the greater parker's chances of not being a spur after this year.....

i'd ship parker and rasho for a legit big (defense) anyday....

the debate turned into what a "breakout" season would consi ute....

i think 10/5 would be an awesome contribution from dev, but jones point is valid, he can't produce from the pine....i personally don't think pop will give the starters all those minutes, especially resting manu up after his hectic summer.....and he'll want to keep barry and bruce fresh as well....i think there will be minutes to be had...especially if Brown shows flashes, or better yet, consistency with what he showed in the laker series....and i think Dev is one of the better shooters on the team as well which can go a long way.....

[Nikos]

At 5mpg does it really matter what Beno does? And if it actually gets to the point where him playing does matter than its probably cause TP isn't playing as well as he should.

I hope Beno can play well enough so that Barry doesn't have to be THE backup PG or play much of it at all, except when Pop wants to try a Barry/Manu/Dbrown type of 1-2-3 combo or something.

I hope its something like Parker 34mpg and Beno 14mpg by seasons end.

[Nikos]

Also, you really think Dbrown is going to get 10ppg 5rpg in 15-20mpg?

Unless the Spurs offensive dynamic changes, Barry doesn't get many shots off the bench, and the Spurs let Dbrown shoot almost everytime he touches the ball, I don't see how he can get those numbers without 23mpg+ and a large amount of shots per minute off the bench? The team would have to become an offensive jugernaut like the Kings for that to happen, and Brown would need Bobby Jackson type of minutes and shot attempts.

[Man Mountain]

Yeah I win . It was fun Johnny. I'm going to have to e-mail everyone i know with that story page on woai

[Kori Ellis]

PG: Parker 33, Barry 10, Beno 5
Swing: Bowen 30, Manu 30, Barry 15, Brown 15, LJ 6

Those minutes seem to be good estimates to me. But Barry might get an extra 4-5 at the swingspots and those would be taken from Devin.

It will be hard for Devin to get minutes this season. Barring any injuries, I think he'll only get 10 a night.

[ducks]

bowen will be lucky to overage 30 minutes especially early

[Nikos]

Who is the other poster is it Johny Blaze and Man Mountain?

[Kori Ellis]

Yes.

[ShoogarBear]

Man Mountain, you were much too polite with your compliments to begin each of your rebuttals.

"Jane, you ignorant " would have been a better start.