I know everyone was predicting a sweep last year too (not me, I said Spurs in 6, and was almost right until Detroit stole Game 6)...
But let's look at the differences between last year's Pistons and this year's Heat.
- Pistons were defending Champs.
- Larry Brown is a great coach who can actually inspire his players.
- Pistons matched up well with Spurs (even if the first games didn't show that).
Compared to that, the Heat have won nothing, and no-one on their team has won anything except Shaq and Pat. Of course, no one on the Mavs has won anything yet either, but AJ is using that to motivate them better than Pat is.
Of course, Pat can only motivate his team so much, he can't make them younger. Heat are just to slow (and shallow) against this young, athletic and deep Mav team.
Mavs are saying all the right things, and AJ can convince them that the Heat will win Game 3 unless they play perfect basketball. That's the key (I believe) to winning Championships, is believing the other team will win unless you play the best game of your life.
Game 3 is a must win for the Heat, and they will still lose.

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