Violent crime rate takes first big jump since '91

[atxrocker]

Violent crime rate takes first big jump since '91
Murder rate climbs in smaller cities
From Terry Frieden
CNN


Monday, June 12, 2006; Posted: 4:32 p.m. EDT (20:32 GMT)


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- For the first time in 15 years, the violent crime rate has jumped significantly in the United States, with the biggest increase in the Midwest, according to figures released by the FBI on Monday.

The murder rate in the United States shot up 4.8 percent last year, and overall violent crime was up 2.5 percent for the year, marking the first significant annual increase in crime in the United States since 1991, the FBI said.

Law enforcement authorities and criminologists reacted cautiously, uncertain whether the preliminary statistics for 2005 signal the end of a long downward trend in the crime rate, or simply a one-year anomaly.

Crime figures had begun to level off in the last few years and some categories had edged up slightly in 2001.

Some experts have cited an aging population and stiffer sentencing as key factors which contributed to the gradual reductions in crime throughout the '90s and into the start of the new century.

But several leading criminologists say those factors are changing, and that they're not surprised by the new numbers.

"There is an 'echo boom', with an increasing number of late adolescents, particularly blacks and Latinos," said criminal justice expert James Fox of Northeastern University.

"Also, more people incarcerated in the '80s are now being released to their neighborhoods, and some are back to their old ways and old gangs," Fox said.

The statistics for cities of 100,000 or more show the largest increase in overall violent crime occurred in the Midwest, where the total of murders, robberies, rapes, and aggravated assaults increased by 5.7 percent last year.

FBI officials who compiled the figures supplied by local police departments noted sharp variations among cities, and even among categories of crime within cities, leaving few discernible patterns.

In Detroit, where murders declined, robberies increased sharply. In most of the nation's largest metropolitan areas, overall crime declined, while in many small to medium cities crime, including murders, increased.

Authorities said the spread of gangs into smaller cities with fewer police resources may account for some of the violence.

In Memphis the number of murders rose from 107 in 2004 to 136 in 2005. In Norfolk, Virginia, murders rose from 35 to 58; in Tulsa, from 48 to 58; and in St. Louis, from 113 to 131.

Police in some cities said crime increases reflected unusually low numbers in 2004, rather than unusually high numbers in 2005.

Final figures and detailed statistical analysis which may provide clues to the significance of the preliminary 2005 figures are scheduled to be released by FBI officials in October.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/LAW/06/12/crime.rate/index.html

[Darrin]

This has long been predicted as a potential outcome because of the age of prison populations, and the 25-year sentences at age 15-30 would make violent criminals able-bodied to continue their pattern of criminality after their release.

As for the rise in crime, specifically in the Midwest, look no further than the economics of the plains states. The middle class is shrinking in these areas because blue-collar jobs are leaving for other countries.