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Finally someone sees that Jared Jeffries just isn't that good.
Harrington tops best of the rest of free agents
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Hollinger
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
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The free-agent market is a little bit like a game of dominoes: When one piece falls, it leads to more movement.
For instance, Chicago's agreement with Ben Wallace meant Detroit went after Nazr Mohammed while Joel Przybilla decided to return to Portland.
So which dominoes are left to fall now that Wallace will join the Bulls and Peja Stojakovic has agreed to go to the Hornets?
The task today is to sort out what's left -- who's worth big bucks, who could end up being a bargain and who isn't worth much at all. It's even more difficult this year because there's an awful lot of chaff between the shreds of wheat.
In sizing up the market, we basically have two groups.
In one group is what I call "the big five" -- the five remaining free agents whose performance justifies significant, long-term deals.
Beyond them, the drop-off is severe. Nonetheless, several players receiving less attention have shown enough potential to provide significant value in coming seasons.
From 1 through 25, here's how I rank this year's "Best of the Rest":
THE BIG FIVE
1. Al Harrington, Hawks
Harrington is young (26), talented (18.6 ppg), and proven (five straight years in double figures). That should make him a coveted asset, but now that the few teams with cap space and a need for a forward have committed their dollars, he might find himself in a tight spot.
Harrington's lone path to fair market value is to piece together a sign-and-trade deal, always a difficult proposition. That's doubly true now that a judge has limited the Hawks' squabbling ownership to one-year contracts (although that won't affect the Speedy Claxton deal).
Plus, the Hawks aren't terribly interested in retaining Harrington because they already have a crowd at the forward spots.
Indiana remains the leader in the clubhouse on the sign-and-trade front, but this might take awhile.
2. Drew Gooden, Cavaliers (restricted)
People aren't piling in with offers because of Gooden's tendency to lose focus on defense. I think that's a mistake. Step back and look at the bigger picture, and you'll see the guy piled up 15.5 points and 12.2 boards per 40 minutes while shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. His numbers from the year before were even better.
He's also quick enough to step out on pick-and-rolls and defend guards, and long enough to challenge shots in the paint, which helps make up for the periodic brain cramps. Also, he's only 24 -- it's rare to come across a talented frontcourt player of that age in free agency.
Yet with offers hardly flooding in because of Gooden's restricted free agent status, he could end up settling for the Cavs' one-year tender.
3. Chris Wilcox, SuperSonics (restricted)
I love it when agents get upset because a team won't match another's foolishness.
Apparently, Wilcox's people are deeply annoyed that the Sonics won't offer him the same six-year, $60 million deal the Nuggets gave Nene. You know, because it worked out so well last year with Samuel Dalembert, Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry.
Wilcox isn't worth $60 million, but he'll get more than the midlevel. Like Gooden, he's young (23) and a spectacular finisher who shoots a high percentage but struggles on defense. However, 2005-06 was the first time he'd played well for a long stretch, and that 57.1 percent shooting mark doesn't seem sustainable.
4. Bonzi Wells, Kings
Wells put together a second straight solid season -- and behaved better, too. That said, I think people got a little carried away about his playoff performance. Wells still is an inconsistent shooter and prone to turnovers, and questions about his at ude will always linger.
Additionally, if he signs a five-year deal, he'll be 34 by the end of the contract. Add it up, and I'd be skittish about giving him any more than my midlevel exception and reluctant to give him the full five years.
(By the way, if your name happens to be Joe Dumars and you're reading this, do not pair Bonzi with Rasheed Wallace. I repeat, do not do this. I know you think it will work out OK, but it won't. Putting those two together is like feeding a soon-to-be Gremlin after midnight. Trust me.)
5. Mike James, Raptors
He's coming off a great year, but he's also a 31-year-old point guard who never had played this well before, so teams are bidding nervously. Like Wells, he's probably worth the midlevel exception, but not on a five-year deal -- he'll be lucky to get more than three.
The esteemed Mr. Line reports that the bidding is down to Houston, Dallas and Minnesota. The logical destination would seem to be Houston, because the Rockets' at ude toward this season could best be described as, "Let's make one last push to win big now before Tracy's back blows up for good, and worry about the consequences later." Inking James fits that plan perfectly.
THE LITTLE 20
Instead of this little one-paragraph interlude between James and the next guy on our list, just imagine a giant precipice. Like, say, the North Rim of the Grand Canyon. Next, imagine players 1 through 5 in my list at the top and the rest of these guys at the bottom.
Now, continue:
6. Jackie Butler, Knicks (restricted)
He's 21 years old and already a productive NBA center. This past season, he shot 54.4 percent and averaged 15.7 points per 40 minutes. He's turnover-prone and needs to get in better shape, but if you look at the crazy money teams are throwing at other centers, it's surprising nobody has made a strong move for Butler. His restricted status probably isn't helping.
7. Trevor Ariza, Magic (restricted)
I'm a bit surprised Ariza hasn't received more attention, either. He's still only 21 and is already a decent NBA backup.
Outside of the top five, Butler, Ariza and Marcus Banks are the only ones with any kind of star potential (using the word "star" extremely loosely here), and none seems to be getting much love right now.
8. Marcus Banks, Timberwolves
An unrestricted free agent because Boston didn't pick up his option year when he was a Celtic, Banks played fairly well once he came to Minnesota at midseason. He's still a poor shooter and has some problems running the point, but he's as good at pressuring the ball as anyone this side of Lindsey Hunter and made an encouraging boost in his field goal percentage a year ago.
9. Eddie House, Suns
House's past two seasons have been extremely productive. He averaged a whopping 22.5 points per 40 minutes in Phoenix a year ago and 17.8 for three clubs the year before (yet somehow managed to get cut twice).
He'll be looking for another wide-open offense to join in 2006-07 as a spark plug off the bench. A return to Phoenix remains possible.
10. Darius Songaila, Bulls (restricted)
An extremely proficient midrange shooter, Songaila doesn't bring much else to the table and, at 6-8, is a bit short for the power forward spot. Nonetheless, his scoring knack will help somebody's second unit, and with Chicago adding P.J. Brown and Tyrus Thomas, Songaila likely will be looking for a new home.
11. Keith Van Horn, Mavericks
So, let me see if I have this straight: Tim Thomas gets $24 million and Vlad Radmanovic gets $31 million, but Van Horn is twisting in his knee-high socks waiting for a phone call? Somebody want to tell me what the difference is between those three soft, 6-10 jump shooters?
Yes, Van Horn is the oldest of the three, but last time I checked, Van Horn has had the best career of the bunch and, on a per-minute basis, he was the best in 2005-06, as well.
12. Tony Delk, Pistons
Although Delk hasn't played much of late, he has played extremely well. His 40-minute scoring averages the past two years were 19.9 and 19.1, respectively, and although his age (32) is cause for concern, it's not as though Delk is dependent on his athleticism -- he's just going to come off the bench and bury midrange jumpers. That makes him a good value on a short-term deal.
13. Fred Jones, Pacers (restricted)
You could argue that Jones shouldn't be rated this high -- he's not nearly as good offensively as some people imagine -- but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt because he was playing hurt last season. He was a pretty effective bench player the year before, and he's only 27, so I'd expect him to be one again next season.
14. Melvin Ely, Bobcats (restricted)
Ely quietly enjoyed a productive year in Charlotte, and he has been coveted by New Jersey for some time. However, he has three strikes against him. First, because he played in college forever, he's already 28. Second, he's a restricted free agent, so the Bobcats can match any offer. Finally, 2005-06 was his first good year, so teams might be reluctant to use that as a basis for an offer.
15. Jumaine Jones, Bobcats
He's 27 -- it only seems as though he's 90. And Jones has put together a pair of reasonably effective seasons in two very different environments, first as a member of Kobe's supporting crew in L.A., then in a much more prominent role in Charlotte. He shouldn't be starting, but his ability to play both forward spots, hit 3s from the corner and rebound should net him half of somebody's midlevel exception.
16. Anthony Parker
The "other" Tony Parker has played in Israel the past few years for Maccabi Tel Aviv. I left him out of my projected stats for European players because I didn't think he'd make the jump across the pond this year, but now I'm reading that Toronto is making a strong push for him.
Parker was a flop as a first-round pick almost a decade ago, and his translated stats from this past year aren't that great (11.95 PER). However, his numbers from a year earlier were much more impressive (15.96), and those are consistent with the rest of his European career. Either way, he projects as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type who will fill the stat sheet but won't score that much.
17. Shavlik Randolph, 76ers (restricted)
Undrafted after a wholly unimpressive career at Duke, Randolph was a pleasant surprise as a rookie with the 76ers. Although limited offensively, he shot a decent percentage on his chances around the basket and was better than advertised on the glass. At 22, he still has room to get better.
18. DerMarr Johnson, Nuggets
Johnson had some productive outbursts in Denver, especially two years ago, but George Karl never really took a shine to him and he was riding the pine by the end of the year. With his length at 6-9 and his ability to hit 3-pointers and score in transition, Johnson should be able to find a role somewhere.
19. Reggie Evans, Nuggets
The Nutcracker is almost completely one-dimensional, but he is so good in that dimension that he still has value. Evans led the NBA in RR (rebound rate) for a second straight season, so despite his offensive limitations, he should be a target for a board-starved club such as, say, Minnesota or New Jersey.
20. Jarron Collins, Jazz
The twin brother of the Nets' Jason, this Collins brings a similar skill set to the table -- outstanding team defense, limited rebounding and the occasional midrange jump shot. He's not quite as exceptional a defender as his brother but is more than good enough to get paid in the current wacky environment for centers.
21. Lorenzen Wright, Grizzlies
Wright has declined the past two years and is 30 years old, so buyer beware. All the same, he hasn't been that bad, and one has to wonder whether part of the decline was from getting his undersized butt kicked every night playing center for Memphis. If he moved back to his natural power forward spot and crashed the boards for 15 minutes a night off the bench, he might have a few productive years left.
22. Jared Jeffries, Wizards (restricted)
He supposedly is getting a lot of interest, which surprises me in light of the fact that he's not any good. Yes, he had some nice moments defensively against LeBron James in the playoffs, but he also went 36 minutes without scoring a basket in the clinching Game 6 and shot 39.5 percent for the series.
Besides, nobody's comparing him to Bruce Bowen, and he needs to be that good an on-ball defender because the rest of his game is so poor. Jeffries' career high in points per 40 minutes is a meager 10.4 in 2004-05. Also, he is nothing special on the boards, makes way too many turnovers and is worse than Tim Duncan from the foul line. Anybody paying the full midlevel exception for this package will end up horribly disappointed.
23. Ronald Dupree, Timberwolves
Now here's somebody who does the same things Jeffries does and will cost about a tenth as much. Although teams will focus on Jeffries, Devean George and Rasual Butler in the small forward market, you'd have a hard time convincing me Dupree isn't at least as good. Sure, he has played less than the other guys, but look at the production -- he hasn't played any worse. He also might be the best defender of the bunch.
24. DeShawn Stevenson, Magic
Stevenson opted out of his contract and supposedly is looking for a deal worth the midlevel exception. I'll let the fact that I've ranked him below Jeffries speak for my feelings on whether he's worth that much. Although Stevenson is still young (25) and is a pretty good defender, his knack for taking jumpers a foot inside the 3-point line is a quiet killer offensively, and that's his primary "weapon" right now.
25. Ronald (Flip) Murray, Cavaliers
Murray has a great first step and should have benefited as much as anyone from the rules changes preventing contact on the perimeter, but his past two years have been brutal. He still has that stellar start to 2003-04 on his résumé, though, so perhaps he just needs the right environment.
Finally someone sees that Jared Jeffries just isn't that good.
Hey, I've been arguing against Jared Jeffries for a while now... since we were both Hoosiers.
reggie evans and jumaine jones splitting the mle would solve a lot of problems
None of those guys are coming to the our team unless they accept the vets minimum. We are getting close to the luxary Tax threshold and we do not care if we have to waste Duncans prime to avoid it.
-Spurs Front Office
I'd rather have Ariza over Jumaine Jones. Jones is a career backup and seems decent, but Ariza has a knack for playing the game, is much younger with more 'upside.'
I wouldn't mind Reggie Evans and a run for Trevor Ariza.
6. Jackie Butler, Knicks (restricted)
7. Trevor Ariza, Magic (restricted)
8. Marcus Banks, Timberwolves
Any two of these three is where I'd go.
I thought he was wrong about Songaila being short, but then I found his pre-draft measurements. He measured 6'8 without shoes.10. Darius Songaila, Bulls (restricted)
An extremely proficient midrange shooter, Songaila doesn't bring much else to the table and, at 6-8, is a bit short for the power forward spot.
Qyntel Woods not even on the radar screen.
Hasn't Banks demonstrated much more interest for too-much money than actual basketball?
ariza would be nice but is restricted so scratch him off
I don't agree 100% with the rankings but I agree that Ariza and Butler should be high and that Jeffries and Stevenson should be pretty low.
Ronald Dupree is a name I haven't thought of that could make sense. Remember the Spurs wanted him last season but at the last second the T'Wolves traded for him instead of letting the Pistons waive him. He could make sense this year.
Kori, do you know where I could get wing span measurements for players?
Yeah I'd take Woods over half that list.
Butler and Woods and call it a day.
Jackie Butler with enough experience and coaching could be better than Nazr.
Tervor is a bad free throw shooter but he can dunk, creat his own shot, pass, defend etc.
He's also 6'8. Could backup Bowen very nicely.
And a 7'+ wingspan.
Woods has the whole package basketball-wise. He's more talented and a better decision maker than Stephen Jackson by a long shot. He can even handle the ball PG-wise as well as Barry making Barry that much more expendable.
Woods isn't a 'Spurs type player'. Not my formulation.
Songaila is a good bench player in this league, but not on this team. We should always remember him as the player who effectively ended Malik's career in San Antonio-- he was the one who, after Rose threw the ball into the stands and famously stuffed his shirt over his head, took advantage and ran downcourt for an easy 2. Malik was yanked and barely played again.
his dog fights are better too
Pop's already tried to acquire Woods so that argument won't fly.
Pop always likes to have one bad apple. It's actually part of his lockerroom plan.
Right now the Spurs are bad apple free.
It's hard to call a second-round pick a bust, but given all the hype around Ariza - he's a bust. While he has a good rebound rate for a 3 and can dunk, it's hard to watch him for any extended period of time and expect he'll do anything as a professional.
If he thinks Jared Jeffries isn't that good, I find it hard to conceive that he thinks Ariza is a better prospect, since Ariza is Jeffries minus the defense and intelligent approach to the game.
Is Woods R or UR?
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