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Looks like Iran/Hezbollah got what they wanted. They drew Israel into a conflict, and elevated their standing among many Arab countries. All while using the UN as human shields to make Israel look like the bad guy. Somehow, this is all Bush's fault.
Barring a change in the current tactics and political situation, I really don't see a way that Israel's current attacks can do anything but lift Hezbollah within the region.
As it currently stands, there is debate within Isreal's intelligence services as to the current harm and stength of Hezbollah:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/743736.htmlThe heads of two Israeli intelligence agencies disagree over how much the IDF assault has damaged Hezbollah, although both say the group has been weakened.
The Mossad intelligence agency says Hezbollah will be able to continue fighting at the current level for a long time to come, Mossad head Meir Dagan said.
However, Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin disagrees, seeing Hezbollah as having been severely damaged.
I don't know the stength/breakup of the Isreali intelligence services, but I was under the assumption the Mossad was considred to be one of the better services throughout the world on par with the CIA but that may be with the military intelligence services included. Either way, I think it has been prooven time and time again that bombing of terrorists simply isn't going to get the job done.
Nassrallah's status within the region isn't nearly as debateable right now. He's been elevated quite a bit and Hezbollah itself has been elevated up to a level on par within the region.
July 30, 2006 — The longer the conflict between Israel and the Shiite militia group Hezbollah goes on, the greater becomes the legend of Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's 46-year-old leader.
Nasrallah may be enemy number one in Israel, but he is the man of the moment in parts of the Arab world.
"Hezbollah delivers the goods," said Fawaz Gerges a Middle East expert and an ABC News consultant. "Hezbollah has stood up to Israel. Hezbollah has proven its muscles."
It is quite a transformation. Just a couple of weeks ago, moderate Arab allies of the United States were highly critical of Hezbollah and Nasrallah, its leader of 14 years, for picking this fight with the Jewish state.
Saudi Arabia called it "unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible," something that will pull the whole region back years.
But two things have happened since.
First, Hezbollah fighters on the ground have shocked the Israelis with their tenacity. Into the third week of fighting, Hezbollah rockets still are falling routinely on northern Israel.
Second, Israel's offensive, which has killed more Lebanese civilians than Hezbollah fighters, has inflamed the Arab world.
Arab television has provided a steady diet of displaced refugees, and wounded and dying Lebanese victims.
Now, America's friends in places like Cairo, Egypt and Amman, Jordan, are more than worried.
"They are terrified, and they are anxious that the Israeli war in Lebanon de-legitimizes the pro-American regimes," Gerges said.
So the moderates have dropped the complaints about Hezbollah in favor of criticizing Israel — a much safer tactic.
"The huge popularity of Hezbollah and his leader within the Arab public," said Ghassan Khatib of the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center, "has made it difficult for anybody to criticize them or them or their acts."
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/Mideast/story?id=2253838
Looks like Iran/Hezbollah got what they wanted. They drew Israel into a conflict, and elevated their standing among many Arab countries. All while using the UN as human shields to make Israel look like the bad guy. Somehow, this is all Bush's fault.
If you plan on debating, then do so, but save all the regurgitated bull for another thread.
Hezbollah is interwoven into the fabric of daily life in southern Lebonon. There is no way to get rid of the idea of freedom without getting rid of the people who hold the idea as a cause to be championed. While I do not think the Israelis are trying to kill everyone that share that idea in the region, it was their intention to inflict serious harm on these people in the hopes of changing their opinions about Hezbollah. They grossly mis calculated and have thoroughly failed; thereby, strengthening the idea of that freedom championed by Hezbollah.
It will be Hezbollah and organizations affiliated with them who will rebuild and help reestablish schools and food programs to benefit the people in the region. Those people will bleed Hezbollah flavored blood now. There is no choice for all involved, YOU will have to talk seriously with Hezbollah leadership. They will truly have the support of the people, and the people run Lebonon, not the sellout politicians. That's why groups like Hezbollah thrive, they have the support of the people because the organization germinates from the common oppressed man on the street.
I don't think their as worried about changing peoples opinions as they are worried about preventing missiles from landing in their towns and citys.
Defending themselves is nothing new to them.
Even if Israel somehow destroyed Hezbollah, there would rise up another version of it in its stead.
The common, everyday Muslim wants to see Israel destroyed. It will not be difficult for the anti-Israel terror groups to find new recruits. In the heart of most every Muslim, that land is Dar al-Islam, the existence of Israel is an usurpation, and they are going to fight for it until they have nothing left to fight with.
That Israel continues to exist is a function of their enormous advantage in wealth and firepower. If they are going to have peace with their neighbors, it's not going to come in months or years or decades. It will be centuries until the will of the Arabs is broken.
But if the Arabs ever break through and look like they are going to win, well, there won't be many of them left to celebrate it. If Israel ever comes to the brink of destruction, they will execute the Masada Plan and take out as many Muslims as they can. In the Masada Plan, the Israelis launch nuclear warheads at every major population center their warheads can reach and kill hundreds of millions of people.
The more extreme Muslims think that is an acceptable trade-off.
So that's the thick and the thin of it.
I know lots of Muslims and they don't think that.
The spirit of a people can never be broken.
If that is true, than Israel does not deserve nuclear weapons. They must be disarmed at all cost. But of course, I do not believe such a plan exists.
The common, everyday Muslim wants to see Israel destroyed.I know lots of Muslims and they don't think that.
The spirit of a people can never be broken.
If that is true, than Israel does not deserve nuclear weapons. They must be disarmed at all cost. But of course, I do not believe such a plan exists.
By that, I do not mean nuking Tel Aviv.
I mean they wish to see the Jewish state dismantled and a Muslim state of Palestine erected in its place.
If you know Muslims that don't think that way, then they have been heavily Americanized.
And yes, the Masada plan exists.
I'm curious how you would go about "disarming" a nuclear power.
Well, this thread ended up being about he future of Hezbollah for all of 1 post.
Every time Israel cuts off the dragon's head, ten grow back in its place. Hezbollah isn't going anywhere. Israel may destroy their positions to the point they can't launch any more rockets for the time being, but they'll be back.
Is Isreal even cutting the head off any dragons this time? It seems more like empowering the dragon.The U.S.-Israel strategy of pounding Hezbollah could also backfire, former Bush officials warn. "Don't get me wrong -- if I thought that this air campaign would work and would eliminate [Hasan] Nasrallah and the leadership of Hezbollah, I think it would all be fine," former deputy secretary of state Richard L. Armitage said on National Public Radio this week. "But I fear that you can't do that from the sky and that you're going to end up empowering Hezbollah and perhaps introducing a dynamic into the body politic in Lebanon that will take some great period of time to recover from."
Boo friggen hoo.
We've all read your opinions on the current situation. You don't want a debate. You want another thread to talk about YOUR version of how the Israeli's are handling Hezbollah so badly. Don't get pissy just because some of us can see through your BS.
No, what I'm tired is the lack of substance. The same sarcastic bull responses you always get around here and the way every thread degrades into the same old fest as the previous one. No one ever stays on topic.Boo friggen hoo.
We've all read your opinions on the current situation. You don't want a debate. You want another thread to talk about YOUR version of how the Israeli's are handling Hezbollah so badly. Don't get pissy just because some of us can see through your BS.
If you have something of substance to point out showing Hezbollah being hurt in a meaningful way by these attacks, then bring it.
If not just STFU.
I don't see how any of this will truely degrade Hezbollah. More likely spur recruitment.
They already attack like gypsies and disapear into the landscape, only to re-emerge somewhere else. Like swatting flies with a sledgehammer.
The whole idea behind Israel's attacks was that it would get to the point where Lebanon would send their army in and deal with Hezbollah themselves.
That's pretty much backfired at this point. I don't know what the solution is, but I don't think Israel is doing everything it can to limit the civilian casualty numbers.
I think it has been established that they were trying to blame Hezbollah for the civillian deaths, but the Lebanese people just aren't buying that. It was poorly thought out at best.
They should just deploy mass troops into lebanon, and go door to door murdering any muslim in their paths.
There is no way hizbollah gets uprooted if the common person is truely sympathizing with them more than ever. All that does is strengthen a guerilla army's power. But it will take far more than civilian support to make hizbollah a dominating influence in lebanon, even if something drastic happens like israel becoming severely weakened.
They, like any other guerilla tactic militia, are here to stay unless you go overkill. I hoped Israel was going to go overkill, but they're just being stupid and its obvious now.
Futhermore, bombing the supposed leaders via air strike will never do anything either. The appendages will grow back, even the head. If you truely want to take the wind out of a faction, destroy its purpose, its reason for existing, or if you can't do that, stomp the life and will of its supporters, crush them so hard that they can't dream about ever supporting such a regime ever again.
Neither has been or will be done.
Takes off politically correct hat for a moment.
Thanks god you guys haven't ever been the leader of people because if you had, your people would be the shank ass of every bully you met.
Why do civilllians gets killed?
Because Hezbolla and all terrorist utlize guerilla warfar, which means cover activing and blending in with civillian populace...
If Hezbolla and Al Qaeda and all these other s want to prevent cillians casualties, then they get theri little asses out there in the middle of the desert and die like men.
Of course, they don't want to do that...they want civillians put at risk, they want the fog of war.
Because of that civillians are going to die and anyone that thinks that civillians are dying due to carelessness and not the machinations of the folk many of you think we should be negotiating with, is ing stupid.
It's not Israel's job to protect Lebanese civillians, it's Lebanon's...it's also Lebanon's job to prevent radical segments of it's population from embroiling it in a war.
I realize this government of Lebanon is fledgeling...but it...Hezbollah is going to be eliminated...
The escalation is beign done by Israel...
And Israel is not losing anything...
Used to be Israel could get attatcked on all sides...now it's small segments of idiots that hide amongst women and children.
Anyone that thinks that terrorism is any way winning any kind of war, or even coming close to achieving their goals, is on crack...
And they need to check out a middle east map sometime...
Because last I checked the American Military is so far up the ass of the middle east compared to where they were 5 years ago, it isn't even funny.
And Israel is getting into the act now too.
Oh back to my original point...
This other will spring up in their place...
Fatalistic...that's what terrorists want you to believe, because believing that will deter you from attacking them, but history shows that never to be true.
The ing Japanese were to every man woman and child willing were willing to die for Japan using all their skill...
A few nukes fixed that .
Germany was an unstoppable powerhouse of techonology and will...
A non stop bombing capaign fixed that .
IT's on...and they will never win this war, they'll just become extinct.
Technology rules....and cultures that embrace it rule as well...unless they become a bunch of overliberal dumbasses that think killing machines can be negotiated with....that think they even want to negotiate.
I watch guys jump back and forth on this...
On the one hand when the US or Israel breaks out the asswhupping stick....
Everyone whines, oh horrible civillian loss of life, how monstrous...never seeming to get it that the terrorist want this.
Then when Israel or the US pull back, it's...oh what a quagmire, a never ending quagmire, we bit off more thant we can chew.
IT's just ing lame...
Fact:
Israel has the capability to end this tomorrow by just wiping every mother er out.
Fact: US also has the capability to end their tomorrow, by just wiping every mother er out.
And I don't mean with nukes either.
And eventually, that's what's going to happen, unless they give them the barbarians time to storm the gate...
That's the reality...
It's not this Hezbollah can never be stopped...it's that Israel isn't doing everything they can to stop them.
But they are getting to that point.
Am I the only one that realizes that the Gaza pullout was for this express purpose?
Scratch that...Iran notices.
Damn...look at a map sometime dudes.
Last edited by whottt; 07-30-2006 at 08:28 PM.
They are getting into the act but they are not doing anything that will make any changes in the next 2-10 years. What you say about guerilla tactics is true--but even if some lebanese civilians realize their relatives just got killed by Israeli bombs due to Hizbollah's guerilla nature, you can't deny alot of them are going to stick with the first natural human response and hate those that immediately brought them harm.
Israel is getting into the action but they need to use as much force as possible and start a ground invasion combined with air power to isolate and destroy major hizbollah hot spots. Something hardcore like that. If they are worried about devoting too many resources to that and leaving themselves open to attack, its still okay cuz we'll bail them out, leading to our picture perfect scene of World War Four. Which is what those dirty muslims want even though they will most definitely lose if we stick it out long enough. It's situations like these I wish the republicans had even more power--if we're going to up the middle eastern world we might as well do it right, if that makes sense.
If you bring a knife to a gunfight.....You going to die and likely not do any harm to the guy holding the gun. I don't care how determined you are. And if he's holding an uzi, it can be 100 guys with knives, they still going to die. And there is a finite amount...of terrorists.
Yes it is in the realm of possiblity for the guy with the knife to actually kill the guy with the gun and win the battle...
But only if the guy with the gun is an extreme, and I mean an extreme dumbass. If he is actually stupid, or he is extremely arrogant...it could happen.
But since you have to be pretty ing stupid to take a knife to a gunfiught in the first place, it is extremely rare for this to happen...Especially since the guy holding th gun in this fight, is smart enough to build it, and the guys holding the knives are stupid enough to think they can win a gunfight with a knife.
America and Israel aren't that stupid yet....not enough ultraliberals yet.
Last edited by whottt; 07-30-2006 at 08:50 PM.
Despite all our ing, I still see Israel taking the only real course it can. It IS afraid to launch a truely extensive land campaign. And it IS impossible to avoid collateral damage against a guerilla foe.
Dirty dirty muslims. Hizbollah will never be destroyed if we continue this pace. But even if we attempt to destroy it, it will mean what we all know - world war four. I don't mean to include the connotations and stigma of what we think when we hear world war, but in the basic sense of the word it will be a war involving many countries. Do we want that? I don't see us losing such a battle (given that korea and china don't do the unthinkable and launch take advantage of the chaos to surprise attack us) but it will take a very long time to win, and even longer to brainwash the people into not hating us.
It's so pointless. Why did Allah hide all our oil there? Why did those dumbass english imperialists plant a bunch of muslims on jewish holy land? We're steadily passing a point of no return, whether it be into world war or regional muslim war, it is coming.
I look at it this way....
Saudi Government - extremely unpopular with it's people. Many of which are Islamic fundamentalists.
Jordanian Government - extremely unpopular with it's people. Many of which are Islamic fundamentalists.
Egyptian Government - extremely unpopular with it's people. Many of which are Islamic fundamentalists.
Saddam - extremely unpopular with his people. Many of which are Islamic fundamentalists.
Pakistani Government - extremely unpopular with his people. Many of which are Islamic fundamentalists.
Syrian Government - extremely unpopular with it's people. Many of which are Islamic fundamentalists.
Check the emmigration stats if nothing else.
And none of them are true Islamic states. Although Pakistan is supposed to be but let's face it, it's a military dictatorship. Saudi Arabia isn't even a true Islamic state...it's a Monarchy that tries to claim it's Islamic.
How come you hardly ever even hear a whimper of dissent or serious threat to the leadership from within these countries? Even though they are loaded with these so called unstoppable terrorist groups?
You know...every time I fall 10 will rise up in my place...etc.
Because Islamic Fundamentalist aren't near as tough to control or as infinite as you guys think they are. And they get living kicked out of them by these governments and forced out(then they call them Palestinians)
It's only when they are attacking Israel or us or vocalizing their dissent with us that the governments have control issues with their populations....
Not to sound like a fascist...but sometimes it's the way it's got to be. Survival of the fittest.
Technologically, we and Israel etc are the fittest...mentally? IE as in the willingness to do what it takes to win? Just barely....we are just barely willing to do what it takes..We fight with one arm tied behind our back, in the name of humanity, and we are the only ones doing this. Untie the other arm and let's get this over with...it won't make us like them unless we put in these inhuman aristocratic despotisms like the British and French did, when they put all these ty governments in power after WWI.
Yes it is possible to be both strong and fair, cold and cruel until the battle is won and then be just, and have it a be a good thing...see WWII. Is Japan a ole? Is Germany?
Check the immigration stats and see....
Debate the morality of it all you want....but just don't be naive about the causes of these conflicts, and what it will take to win, or why civillians are getting killed, or why terrorist leader say the things they say to keep from being attacked full force....
Me personally, I have no desire to be pratying towards Mecca 5 times a day...when they get nukes they'll nuke us without a second thought...so I say let's just finish this while we have the upperhand, civillians will die, civillians are going to die here as well eventually, could be you, could be me, but it's going to happen, and it will be a direct attack, not due to fog of war...and if we are too stupid to win this conflict of the past vs the future, with the capability to easily do so, then we deserve what happens to us. And we deserve to lose.
Last edited by whottt; 07-30-2006 at 09:15 PM.
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