Here Comes Chris!

[Nbadan]

Chris continues to become better organized, and may become a hurricane later today. The latest hurricane hunter eye report at 7:09am EDT found flight level winds of 67 knots, which translates to about 60-65 mph at the surface. There are upper level lows to Chris' east and west, and Chris is embedded in a low shear zone of 10-15 knots between these two lows. The lows are helping enhance the upper-level outflow from the storm. The satellite presentation of Chris has improved substantially, and we now see a more symmetrical storm that is not sucking in so much of the dry air surrounding it. Radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico, shows an eye-like feature developing (Figure 1). Chris is over warm 29-30 C water that is favorable for intensification. The key question, as always, is wind shear. Chris is a small storm that is very vulnerable to wind shear. Any movement of Chris towards either of the upper level lows surrounding it will bring hostile wind shear that will weaken the storm. However, the current model forecasts call for Chris to maintain its position exactly between these lows, and for the shear to drop to 5-10 knots. The most likely ranges for Chris' intensity on Sunday when it is expected to be near Florida range from weak tropical storm (45 mph) to strong Category 2 hurricane (110 mph).

Jeff Masters, Weatherunderground

[Nbadan]

Here is the latest blog entry from Chris

Chris is becoming disorganized in a hurry. Satellite images indicate
that the low-level center has become detached from the thunderstorm
activity due to northwesterly shear...and this was confirmed by
fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance plane. The minimum pressure
has risen to 1010 mb and the maximum flight level wind reported so
far is only 38 knots. However...assuming that the entire
circulation has not been sampled...the initial intensity is
adjusted to 40 knots... and this is very generous. I was tempted
to forecast weakening and even dissipation over the next few
days...but the best option at this time is to keep the cyclone on a
steady state considering that the shear could decrease...as
suggested by the SHIPS model.


The broad circulation center of Chris appears to be moving toward
the west or 280 degrees at 10 knots. According to all global
models...a strong ridge is expected to remain anchored to the north
of the tropical cyclone. Therefore...Chris...or whatever is left of
the system...is forecast to continue westward across the
southeastern Bahamas...very near the north coast of Cuba and
eventually reach the south-central Gulf of Mexico in five days. The
dilemma is the future intensity of the cyclone. It could weaken
further and dissipate or could regain some strength. I am in favor
of weakening.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 03/0900z 20.3n 66.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 03/1800z 20.5n 68.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 04/0600z 20.8n 70.0w 35 kt
36hr VT 04/1800z 21.2n 72.0w 35 kt
48hr VT 05/0600z 21.5n 74.0w 35 kt
72hr VT 06/0600z 22.5n 79.0w 35 kt
96hr VT 07/0600z 23.0n 84.0w 35 kt
120hr VT 08/0600z 23.5n 89.0w 35 kt

Weatherunderground

Let's not give up on this cyclone to early, it could blow up again in the war Gulf waters.

[boutons_]

I was following on this page

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...hwind120?large

Yesterday it had Chris, today nothing.

Still Aug and Sep to go, but so far this season has been a flop.

[cherylsteele]

I was following on this page

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...hwind120?large

Yesterday it had Chris, today nothing.

Still Aug and Sep to go, but so far this season has been a flop.

Weren't they predicting a season almost as busy as last year??
What a turnaround from last year.

[FromWayDowntown]

Still Aug and Sep to go, but so far this season has been a flop.

I'd assume that would generally be a good thing. I'm not sure that the absence of major hurricanes and tropical storms would ever lead to great disappointment.

[Extra Stout]

I'd assume that would generally be a good thing. I'm not sure that the absence of major hurricanes and tropical storms would ever lead to great disappointment.

If there aren't any hurricanes, there isn't any coastal destruction or suffering, or economic disruption. If there isn't any coastal destruction or suffering, or economic disruption, that's a lost opportunity to blame one's political opponents for it. Just think, a reprisal of Katrina might have pushed Bush's approval ratings below 30%!

Also, for people all psyched up after last year to invest in companies that profit from storm damage, a quiet season is a letdown. If somebody was planning to buy a new 650i with their '06 hurricane windfall, you can understand the disappointment.

[SpursWoman]

I'd assume that would generally be a good thing. I'm not sure that the absence of major hurricanes and tropical storms would ever lead to great disappointment.

You'd think ...

[Nbadan]

I don't think the debate has ever been about the number of named storms, because clearly, last year was an anomaly by any standard, I think the real debate is about the severity of the storms that do manage to develop and strike. Chances are there will be another Katrina, just not likely in NO.

[Nbadan]

If there aren't any hurricanes, there isn't any coastal destruction or suffering, or economic disruption. If there isn't any coastal destruction or suffering, or economic disruption, that's a lost opportunity to blame one's political opponents for it. Just think, a reprisal of Katrina might have pushed Bush's approval ratings below 30%!

I think the debate has more to do with global warming and its effect on Hurricanes, but thanks for your 2 cents.

[FromWayDowntown]

I think the debate has more to do with global warming and its effect on Hurricanes, but thanks for your 2 cents.

Regardless, boutons' post reads (intentionally or unintentionally) as if there is some disappointment that we won't have to endure the sort of hurricane season we did last year. I wasn't trying to address the why's of that; I was just remarking that it seemed odd that anyone would call the possibility of a slow hurricane season a "flop."

I'm guessing that boutons didn't mean it that way, but the word choice is rather odd.

[MannyIsGod]

, when Dan started this thread Chris was already basicaly a tropical storm without any thunderstorms. I find that quite funny.

Anyhow, saying that we've had very few storms when we are only at the begining of August is like saying "Why hasn't it hit 100 degrees" at 11am. The vast majority of storms come after this point in the season, so even though we have not had many to date, all you need to do is look at years like 04 to see that we can still have a very busy season. In 04 the "C" storm didn't come untill late August while this year we got it at the begining of the year.

I mentioned time and time again how rare last year was because of all the factors that came together to produce those storms. Those factors are not there this year. The mid la ude high pressure - you may have heard this called the Bermuda High - has been very different this year and has produced much stronger trade winds across the tropics. These winds have helped keep the oceans slightly cooler which in turn has lowered the potential energy for storms. Along with that, there is a ton of wind shear in most portions of the tropics. This alone is the biggest factor in killing off these storms before they even start. Look at what happend to Chris. What looked like an impressive developing storm has almost completely died in a short period of time. The wind shear completely tore the storms upper level system from the lower level system and ripped it in half.

I am not saying that it is impossible to see another Katrina like situation, but I woudlnt' expect it. One thing that is somewhat as it was last year was the formation of a warm water pocket in the middle of Gulf of Mexico. This helped feed Katrina and Rita last year. A smaller pocket formed this year, but it is sizeable and could fuel some rapid intensification if a storm travels over it with good upper level conditions.

As far as Chris goes, it looks pretty poor at the moment, but if it can hold together untill it reaches the Gulf it will be in a much better place for development. Just watch and see right now.

[boutons_]

Hurricanes generate tons of TV business, attention, and 10s of $Bs in re-building scams and frauds. A LOT of people have big expectations for hurricane season. No hurricanes when 20 - 30 are expected is a flop.

I wish no ill on the dumb s in the paths of hurricanes even if they keep re-building on the beaches and expect the rest of us, via federal govt storm insurance, to bail them out repeatedly.

[MannyIsGod]

20 hurricanes - much less 30 - were never expected this year. I believe the most liberal prediction was maybe 9 hurricanes.