'Low Intensity Civil War' Likely in Iraq, Ambassador Says
By Mary Jordan and Fred Barbash
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, August 3, 2006; 7:10 AM
LONDON, Aug. 3 -- Britain's outgoing ambassador to Iraq has advised his government that the country is more likely headed to "low intensity civil war" and sectarian par ion than to a stable democracy, the BBC reported Wednesday.
The network said it obtained a diplomatic dispatch from William Patey to Prime Minister Tony Blair and top members of Blair's cabinet.
The British government, which maintains troops in Iraq, has been supportive of the policies of the Bush administration in Iraq, making Patey's assessment all the more significant. Patey's views are shared by many other commentators, but few, if any, officials allied with the U.S.-led coalition have said so publicly.
Patey's assessment was not made publicly either and the British government said it does not comment on leaked do ents.
Blair is scheduled to hold a news conference later Thursday and will likely be faced with questions about the Patey memo.
In it, the BBC said, Patey wrote that "the prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.
"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq -- a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror -- must remain in doubt."
He said it a major priority was to contain militia organizations -- such as the Mahdi Army led by the radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr -- lest they become "a state within a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon. . . .
The BBC did not publish a copy of the memo, but rather reported excerpts from it.
President Bush has acknowledged that the situation in Iraq in many ways has worsened lately. But administration officials have resisted "civil war" analogies.
( "A rose by another name .... ")
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has reversed a decision to skip a public hearing on Capitol Hill and said he will testify Thursday at a session on the Iraq war.
The move came after hours of criticism and pressure from Senate Democrats who urged him to come before the Senate Armed Services Committee to answer questions about the administration's Iraq policies.
Rumsfeld had said earlier Wednesday that his crowded calendar did not allow him to be present for the meeting Thursday morning, but he agreed to attend a private, classified briefing in the afternoon with the entire Senate.
Speaking to Pentagon reporters earlier Wednesday, Rumsfeld suggested that complaints about his decision could be politically motivated.
The Pentagon provided no reason for the change. The committee said the Pentagon called and said the secretary would be testifying.
Fred Barbash reported from Washington .
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